RE: Value3 Oct 2020 11:13
A better proposition could be to have a JV, say 50 /50 so that we derive more value over time and a special dividend now. However, the Management will have negotiated hard knowing we can go it alone and only accept a fair value. In EUA's case, this will have been based on the fair value of the assets in the ground and not some fuddy duddy premium over market price.
In the NPV analysis for MT shown in the article ' Power of 78' posted here, the best case shown was £2.32 per share. However, this analysis was based only on 15m ounces over the 18 year period (processing 1m ounce from years 6 to 18 )and with very modest increase in the price (£25) of palladium year on year. Also a very conservative WACC was used to arrive at the discounted NPV and hence the price per share of £2.32.
If you now take, not 15m ounces, but say 30m ounces on which EUA has based its negotiations and giving the 10m (excess of 40m over 30m) free sort of to the purchaser, then the cashflows double. If this is the case, then the NPV and the share price based on revised NPV will also double FROM £2.32. I would be able to recalculate at some stage over the weekend assuming the WACC of 10% used is reasonable. This probably factors in the country risk and I am not sure if this would be correct. If the true WACC to use was say 7% then the end result gets even better.
GLA