Member Info for Private_Investor

The daily snail indicates that if Diana was still alive this deal would have been concluded long ago

if 500 is all in for anyone I would not suggest going all in here or anywhere else for that matter.

Like many here today I am less well off than I was when I went to bed yesterday but still better off than I was before the NDA run.
Greed...yes naturally.
magic...i'll believe if I see it, till then balderdash and piffle.

I no longer get hung up on share wins and share losses, I play the game, I pick shares I like and I roll the dice. The rest is all down to luck and therefore beyond my control.

IF and it is now a much bigger IF than it felt yesterday this plays out well there will be a great number of BPC millionaires.
If it goes badly then I wish all the chance to trade away any losses and find a better play next time.

GLA

There is a 1 in a million chance of a deal being done.

Pessimist – so we are dead in the water
Optimist – so we have a chance…

no reflection of the BPC chances just an observation on how different people read the same statement different ways.

as much as I would like this to be the case I see it as unlikely.
Not in the interests of the major to allow BPC wiggle room to thrash out a better deal and as stated by others the exclusivity has a few days still to run.
So if a deal is to be done in the next few days it is with the major already at the table.

Exclusivity deal has a couple of benefits for the major.
1. it keeps others away from the table.
2. it allows them to walk away at any time, safe in the knowledge that if a deal is done subsequently and the basin proves to be productive they don't look like fools for walking away.

The benefits it had to BPC were the veneer of credibility and the cash flow.
Most of the cash has in all likelihood been swallowed up by the costs for Macquarie.

BPC on sale or return terms...I like that idea from an investor point of view.

I would not be surprised if in time we find out the procrastinations of BG have in some way contributed to the decision of the major to drop the exclusivity deal.
If they felt that BG were not in a place where they were ready to allow progress why not fire a big shot across the bows by dropping this?
It would come as a wake up call that there is a ticking clock on the BG prospects of getting the oil to cover some of the fiscal issues they face.
Best case the BG get their act together sign of EA formally (a/the) major comes back in and completes the deal.
Worst case PIs get stung with a dead stock and BPC fades to memory. A valuable AIM lesson for many?

The deed is done. I have completed my collecting phase and have enough tucked in the bottom draw for grandchildren.
I have also added a separate pot for trading to allow me enough to trade the volatility without risking being caught without the shares should we get significant good news.

I am now both a LTH and a trader.

with the state of the licenses in terms of commitment to commence drill etc. is there a chance - negotiating in bad faith aside - that the major has had a good opportunity to discuss the BPC licenses directly with BG and now sees an opportunity to come in with an offer to BG if the BPC licenses are revoked?
No need to cut a deal with xx pct to BPC and yy pct to BG just a straight offer of yy + x pct to BG.

conspiracy theorists can discuss at leisure.

This is either a huge set back or the best opportunity to top up we are likely to see.
No doubt this has caught most investors off guard, we had a minor re-trace but nothing to indicate something this big was on the cards.
A top slice would have been good in hindsight but we live to see another day.
The sun still rises in the morning and sets in the evening so it is not that bad.

so what has changed since the drop yesterday?
only 1 thing has changed.
We are 1 day closer to the next RNS whenever it may be and whatever it may say.
Everything else as far as BPC is concerned is the same (minor oil price variation aside)

My only concern with consolidation is that my chances of bottom drawing 1m shares for each of the grandchildren goes out the window. A decision taken pre-news in the sub penny range when I had written the stock off to zero.
God knows I love them but not enough to leave that many shares if we consolidate.
With news breaking domestically post news breaking at BPC I am already 1m shares short. Still sitting on my hands in terms of resolving that, will do so if we have a very nasty re-trace but don't expect it.

Keith 1. There are many professionals who do very well investing in AIM listed companies. Over the years i have met some, been given tips - often ignored - by some. Been extremely fortunate with others. I like to think some of the success is skill and knowledge but am honest enough to put most down to luck. I was lucky to be educated. I was lucky to have a job that afforded me opportunities. I was lucky to live at a time when investing like this was possible. I was lucky my parents met...that their parents met...random chance traced back millenia makes all of what i do blind luck. Therefore i don't worry about the losses. I don't gloat about the success. Wow that got ranty sorry. All just luck. Pros play Aim too.

Interestking. I think you are agreeing with me. As a PI there is not much i can do to drive market price. However we agree that MMs can drive a price for IIs. I would still be surprised if they were doing so for such small volumes. 500k is approx 0.03pct of shares in issue. If it were bigger volumes or more sustained chunks of volume maybe. If enough BB members joined forces and placed collective buy orders at an agreed price below market we could test the theory....that is how to start a small fund with a set objective. Maybe a discussion for another time over a beer post BPC. Remember boys and girls market manipulation is not the work of the messiah. It is the work of very naughty boys (and girls) Sorry to the python fans for that.

I don't believe that small buys at that level can drive a buy price. Even at a relatively small gap to market price. At least not for a PI. Picture may be different for a known II. I think the dip was driven by PI profit taking. Moving from an exposed position to a free carry looks to be a strategy for some - and a reasonable strategy. Others play Aim with a set pct goal in mind and hop in and out. again a reasonable strategy. Both hold risk in terms of missing out if a deal is announced but will look like the smart plays if no deal comes through. GLA. Who knows what the day ahead will bring.

I have previously bought a 1m block. I tried to buy below market price with a price open to view. No influence at all.

Tim Minchin has a great piece on non-causal correlation.
I think the title is Human Logic.

well worth searching for if you don't know his work.

I can now rule out Dave from accounts. He does however now have a very nice Harley and a full sleeve tattoo.
He has not fully embraced his new lifestyle as the burgundy cords and plaid shirt remain.

Dave from accounts. He said he was about to spend a fortune on something and if his wife found out she would not be happy.

No alien invasion either