Member Info for potnak

I subscribe to Ranulph Fiennes philosophy on this, PC. Although, I think Wainwright might have wrote it first. Anyway,they both wrote, "there is no such thing as bad weather, only unsuitable clothing" Id love to be on the wet mountains right now. If SAR come good in the next year. That's i will be found while ever I'm fit enough.

Yes, PC valuations are all based on end stage sales and market share. Using Citizens valuations. With discounts applied, we should be looking upto 300 million for 1801 alone. Even at this stage. 1802 and 03? Adds another 100 million with 737 then, IMO, 500 million should be the minimum for a buyout. More if the 1801 studies derisk 1802 and 03. I still think an on licence but It's easy to get excited. My own AI valuations were 14 billion dollars if all compounds got approved. Even if Discounted by 75%, it would still make quite a few here millionaires.

Going on the lower estimated timescale. 16 weeks plus a month to review the data and publish. Then, the very end of Oct could be the period to watch for news. It could be perfect timing as, if good. They'd be going to Bio Europe with something to shout about.

Coincidentally, as is usually the case with SAR RNS releases, the last week in Oct just happens to be another holiday for me.

Made me chuckle too. If by "always clear" he means vague and open to interpretation then yes, they have always been clear. So to be clear. End of the year is still 31st Dec?

I would imagine that if they are going to bio Europe, they will want some data to show off. I'll still go with end Oct.

Those of us that were here in sept 2016 might see some comparisons to today. It was very quiet in the weeks before the RNS dropped.

We got the study initiated RNS 29th may. With expectations set between 16 weeks + 1 month to JR's minimum 6 months. If those are the options then end of Oct is looking likely. final results are due before then though. Usually mid Oct and they will need to give a forward looking statement in that RNS. Hopefully lots of positive words.

It's no secret that I think we will eventually get a licence deal but the complete radio silence seems odd, not even tweets. This feels deliberate. Both exciting and worrying at the same time. I'm leaning towards exciting though.

Not sure it works like that for animal studies. As I understand it, The pooches don't get to survive this study. They are euthanised so their organs can be examined. So I doubt they'd stop the trial if there were adverse reactions. Happy to be schooled on this though.

Has anyone noticed they as we get closer to news, it goes quiet in here. Not just Sareum, it happens on a lot of share chats. The early bravado of posters starts to turn to thoughts of risk. And Sareum being Sareum will probably test our resolve by stretching out the wait.

Who is still confident of a good Tox results?

IMO, 737 is either worthless or worth a few hundred million. There isn't really an inbetween for Sareum and I suspect they won't even tell us if a deal can't be made. It'll just sit on the shelf next to Aurora until the patent expires. If the patent vmcan be extended, it will suddenly gain value as the cost to develop could be worth it. It almost certainly won't be sareum that develops it though.

I don't know Celtic. Don't know if you remember when Hemo first came on the scene. They were discussed a lot on here. Think I remember Thoth getting himself into trouble by going over to their chat board. Vlad has always sailed close to the wind with his Comms. Sometimes, I wish Sareum were a bit like that but TM has been burned a few times so now, they say nothing. I said this the other day, and a lot at the time. I believe the decision to switch from a 1b trial to an extended tox study denied us, the shareholders, our HEMO moment.

IMM is still massively down on all time highs. They lost 95 value on a trial failure to me primary endpoint. Hemo are only double SAR market cap, even after this raise. You could call them fair value now but they are still phase 1 so I don't think they will hold on to this price once the new investors realise there is a long wait in store.

I'm the same as Aber. Id like a TO. I'm just not sure were ready yet. As for value, using industry standard techniques then it's anything between £300 and £800 million at this stage. Good Tox study doesn't necessarily add value but does derisk which will likely help when offer are made. I have been very vocal about some decisions made by the board over the years but I do agree with PC. If they pull it off they have done amazingly well with little to no resources. To answer the question. I honestly believe anything less than £500 million would be a bad deal.

This scenario would be a reason to exercise your warrants earlier than you need to.

Yes, I agree but what if the sell price was say £300 million? That would be £202 million to SAR. They don't need that much working capital. Some of it could be paid as a special dividend. The company would be funded, the shareholders would finally see some value and the risk of cash raises would be gone so the board could laugh off low ball offers. I actually think 737 could be worth 800 million but that is by the by.

Does anyone know this. If a dividend was announced, would you be allowed to exercise your warrants to get more of the dividend? I have thought about this a few times. If 737 was sold in full, all right etc. The proceeds would be spit. 32.5% to CPF and 67.5% to Sareum. Depending on the size of the deal Sareum would make thier first profit that would potentially give them all the funds they need to progress into and past phase 2 plus some overhang that could be paid as a special dividend to shareholders. In this case, the more shares you have, the bigger your dividend is. I've seen special dividends paid out before but I don't know if you are allowed the exercise warrants to get more.

Approx 18 million left to exercise, SOG. I think. Think mathsprof or billy was keeping a more accurate tally.

Yep, all my calculations are based on 156 million shares. That is the figure with all warrants exercised.

Yes, but even if the SP was £5 they could still buy the warrants for 12p and then sell for £5. There is no reason for them to keep the SP low. It has to be risk mitigation or they want a bigger holding now for some reason or they need cash.

Aber, I'm not saying it can't happen but you would need 40 million shares to get enough shares to even attempt a hostile TO. That would need around 12 investors, all holding just under the TR1 notifiable 3% holding. Then they would need to come out in the open as a group to make an offer. Hopefully, the board would advise us to reject it and that would be it. All that underhand dealing for nothing.

I don't get why the warrant holders are selling either but has something to minimise risk, or they think a dividend payment is coming?