Member Info for potnak

I was kind of hoping they wouldn't be booked in. Going to an partnering event probably means we are still looking for a partner. Hopefully they will be going with some excellent tox data.

Id agree with that, cobalt. However, I don't think we are near the binary outcome yet. Happy for someone with more knowledge to correct it but as I understand it. The extended tox study is to dose way higher than we ever would in humans and to do it for longer than is actually required. Think it might have been SOG that quoted TM saying upto 100x safe dose (as found in P1). We are waiting on data that shows how high before it wasn't tolorated or major side effects kicked in. We could fail to get to the desired levels but it wouldn't be the end of 1801 as such. It is my belief that the binary win\lose comes in phase 2 with efficacy data. As I said, happy to be corrected.

Unless it is an outright offer to buy. I'm hoping parker and the board manage the news flow to maximise the momentum and value before an onlicense is announced. Let's get to 70p before any big strategic announcements are made.

If the stock breaks 30p. We should be able to push on to 50p by end of Oct. Sooner if Tox data lands before then. I, SOG, believe the SP should be nearer to a pound at that point. Then we can talk the full value.

We have at least 2 posters on here with approx 3 million shares.

To add to my post and contradict it.The capstan deal shows that big pharma will still pay big for early stage compounds. 2.1 billon dollars is around £1.5 billion just as SOG stated.

Whilst I'm happy to see the sentiment for big valuations. I'm also being realistic with the stage SAR are at. I've always said £2 billion after phase 2 but if there is an early offer before we get efficacy data. It will be at a discount to that 2 billion, around £500 million. There are a lot of big holders here where that price would make them very wealthy and I don't think the board would have any trouble getting it through a vote. If we could get to £150 million MC before any offers then we could potentially get better offers. We've been here before though. Trying not to get sucked in too deep haha.

As an addition to SOGs comment re realistic valuations.

Capstan Therapeutics had a valuation of 525 million dollars when Abbvie swooped in and offered 2.1 billion dollars for their early stage immunotherapy pipeline back in June. There are some clear comparisons to be made with Sareum and their pipeline. I believe the Sareum market cap should be higher, perhaps 5x today's valuation. Then we can talk the value to take the lot.

It just needs a trigger, Bailiff. This is the most bemusing thing. The P1 manuscript was first mooted last year. We've had 737 back a while, words like soon have been used. There are few few bits of news that could be used as the trigger are not being used. Can't go on for ever though. Final results will need a forward looking statement that covers everything. If no news before then we have approx 6 weeks until parker needs to issue a statement.

Nice one, DP!

I think Parker is hedging his bets with the AI discovery. If successful, it will add to the pipeline, 1803, in CNS indications. I personally believe the advice we got was a CRO as this is literally, what they do. A phase 1 asset with extended tox study already done should be very easy to on licence. Id like a full buyout but don't think we have enough efficacy data yet.

Agree with the sentiment that we don't have long to wait but not sure on the adverse bit. The aim of the trial is to trial high doses for prolonged periods. That's why it is done in animals. I don't think it's a case of no news is good news. They either reach the required levels or higher or they don't and you need 16 weeks minimum to do that. I guess, if a pharma is monitoring then Sareum could share preliminary data but I think they will the full report before any deals are made. I think we will see some FOMO as the 16 weeks comes to an end. Hopefully a statement re the end of dosing can come out? Not sure if this is the sort of thing that happens with other biotechs so we might need to wait for the full 6 weeks plus any drag that happens because, it's Sareum and they are known for it. Remember, JR said minimum 6 months on the IM presentation. I still think end of Oct beginning of Nov.

I grew up on a council estate. My mum still lives in the same house. I have family and friends still living. They are never going to get anywhere near IHT levels. There is zero generational wealth in my family. Brothers wife and myself are the only ones in the immediate family that are in the higher tax band. I do wince sometimes when seemingly half my commission goes to tax but I rather be in my position than theirs. My retirement will be structured in way that we will spend it all even if we have to give it away. My daughter will get the house. The only reason I'd want my SIPP to pass onto my other half Is so she can carry on the spending it all bit. Not getting political but I know and accept that 95% of the population aren't doing as well as I am.

The average pension pot at 65 in the UK is approx £145k. Nowhere near IHT. Average house price in the UK. Not including the south is around £200k. IHT is a dream for most of the UK.

Yep, I go get it PC. I guess I feel confused because, personally, I think there is some upside here, within the next 6 weeks or so.

Also on the IHT. The romantic in me has said, to my better half. If my SAR shares do well, we should get married so the SIPP can go to her. We've been together 30 years but never married. She was underwhelmed with the idea. 🤷

I always saw warrants as a risk free way to pay the CGT on a big win. Not just either Sareum. It's just how I round imagine using them. You don't pay for them unless you exercise them. Waiting until the SP has multibagged then selling allow you to keep more if not all of the proceeds if you use the profits from the warrants to pay your tax bill. I'm not an expert either. That's just how I've always seen it.

As a balance to my last post. Seeing what has happened over at IMM, maybe derisking, even at this stage is a good plan. Citizens post re Fosun pharma. Although a deal similar to this would be good news, those numbers wouldn't set the SP on fire here as we'd be back in a waiting pattern while the trials went on.

I don't doubt the logic, PC and i guess if this is happening then, the investor must be confident of a good outcome. It's just the timing for me. The share price could double or triple within the next 6 weeks and if it did, any tax paid would be dwarfed by the gains they could have got by exercising at 40p.

It's giving us something to to speculate on whilst we wait.

If it is warrants there is something going on. To exercise warrants at this stage doesn't make sense unless you know of impending news, good or bad. I take on board PC's thought where you would sell your 12p warrants and buy back at 20p but not sure the difference you would pocket is worth the effort. Especially if you think the SP will be higher in a month's time. Selling to derisk is likely but again, unless you think a binary outcome is coming, I'm not sure why you would do that. SOG and I have a few back and forths over this. Technically, you can't fail and extended tox study but you can fail to reach the required levels to move forward into humans without the dreaded black box warmings that blight the first gen TYK2 compound's.

To be clear, I don't believe there is a binary outcome coming. But if more warrants are taken up. Something is going on.

With the current toxicology studies looking increasing doses. Does it actually have an end date? Presumably, they work towards reaching the required levels (approx 16 weeks) then they produce the report (1 month). Remember JR originally said minimum 6 months. But what I'm getting at is the patients (dogs) are still in the trial, being monitored etc. so can Sareum release an RNS say the trial is complete? It's a genuine question btw. If not then the Oct final results RNS will mist likely be the next RNS. With hints that the trial went well.