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Funny catching up on the posts this evening. People who were pro IAG now slating IAG after announcing they sold last week.
Are some people so thick they don’t realise people can read their posting histories!!!
As for the SP tomorrow, no idea, I think some people are forgetting the value of security (one of the prime reasons the RI went ahead. Our cash balance was ok last week, this will give the business additional freedom to navigate through winter and continue to improve efficiencies
Paddy - this is not an aim stock that can be played.
There are only 2/3 things that will cause a material rise which can’t be made up as it’s in the public domain
1. Vaccine approved (ema or FDA)
2. Covid cases dropping significantly allowing transatlantic travel
3. Government dropping passenger taxes for 12/18 month window
Jonny. Appreciate the post. I had calculated it completely wrong, I have a 19980 shares in my trading account & ISA. My wife has 5000.
Does that mean I can buy 37470 new shares at 84p?
Meaning, I need to transfer £31474 to my trading accounts to take my full allocation?
To be honest, I don’t know what to make of it. I also read some of the publications (all available online) and the article in the BMJ.
Like any drug or device, they have target markets which normally relates to the effectiveness and cost of the product. With that in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if 2nd/3rd world countries and the eastern block opt for the Russian option.
Personally, I smell a rat. Once the EMA/ MHRA/ FDA etc review the data we should get a clear understanding of the effectiveness and potential side effects.
I’ll probably wait for the Biontech/ AZ/ GSK/ Sanofi/ Moderna vaccine (if they are successful)
Good point Wasu which I didn’t really think about (regarding stability over the coming months(pre vaccine)
There will be Some major turbulence in the coming weeks with shares being flipped but unless your going long on Spreadex, I wouldn’t worry about a paper loss (if it gets that bad).
I work in the Pharma industry and a huge majority of my current work is on the vaccine (hence why I’m travelling as much now as I was in January)
I will be shocked if any of them are approved this year (trump might try and push the moderna compound through with his power but I can’t see it.) medics/ PhD scientists simply wouldn’t allow it if it wasn’t ready imo but you never know what could when they president of the US gets involved.
I spent today with the chief medical officer of one of the leading vaccines currently in development and whilst it’s going better than expected, they felt it was unlikely to be this year but very confident it would be approved by early next year. Phase 3 trials are a huge logistical nightmare which isn’t made any easier in the current Covid world.
As soon as data is submitted for regulatory approval by one of the front runners, the markets will take off! It’s worth really keeping an eye on submission documents to the FDA and EMA so you get an early idea of what’s coming. The submission could always be rejected or requiring regulatory defence reviews but normally the PV/Med/ reg and clinical teams will be quite confident due to the costs of the submission
I hope you’re right Dean.
I am equally as positive for the long term strategy and future potential of the stock.
It’s been a terrible year for aviation and likely a terrible winter and early 2021. However, we’ll then see a gradual recovery.
I looked into all the key players and chose IAG, we took a huge Covid hit and we’ll have to make huge strategic changes (ie grow Vuelling/ level, adapt AL (low cost single class routes from UK cities to the US), cutting/ limiting first class for BA (already achieved by retiring the 747). You have EZJ who are a credible low cost carrier who respect passengers and offer a good service but limited options to improve efficiencies, you then have RYA who offer the worst product in the market without doubt, horrendous customer service but extremely well run from a business perspective. Iag are a bit of a dinosaur but a dinosaur that’s managed to make impressive profits whilst updating the soft and hard product over recent years. The dinosaur has made more changes in recent months than it has in the last decade (or 2). We have many options to improve efficiencies and improve the customer experience. Our staffing costs alone are A substantial saving (a senior BA cabin supervisor earns 3 x vs EZJ and RYA)
Our fleet has been improved over recent years but we’ve had to rely on the fuel drinking 747’s due to the demand for the 787/1000 and A350 1000. Due to the downturn, we can now manage without the 747 and 777-200 and use the fuel efficient aircraft with a better soft product.
BA has done well to keep frequent flyers happy with status extensions and allowing Avios refunds (win for BA and win for the consumer).
When this is over, IAG will be more efficient and profitable than ever before, rya and ezj will do well but due to their historic efficiencies, there is little they can do to save more money....
Not a short term win, but this will walk over any airline for a long term return
If I didn’t feel the vaccine was coming next year, I’d be apprehensive. However, I am 100% confident there will be 2 vaccines developed next year (not including any Russian, Chinese or North Korean vaccine!!)
RDolby - I’m in a similar situation to you.
I’ve chosen to hold and buy the rights. It’s a risk like many stocks but I believe in the company and the fact we have dropped so low from the January highs gives this a good uplift potential (imo)
I think it partly depends when you want the money, you might be able to flip the new shares for a small profit, personally, I have quite a long term view on this investment and will hold on to the new shares (my average is already around 190)
It sounds worse than it is (it’s not uncommon to pause a trial for the Pharmacovigilance team to investigate a serious adverse reaction - it could simply be the person had a heart attack not related to the vaccine!)
The Biontech vaccine remains my favourite for success followed by GSK then Moderna (AZ/ Oxford are still doing well)