Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Big Blue - I am extremely confident all major European & US tourist destinations will be open by the Summer. By July, the UK would have vaccinated over 50% of the population and most European countries will be on a similar standing.
Adding to this, the summer months showed dramatic reductions in cases across the whole of the northern hemisphere last year, when you include the vaccine with the warmer weather and improved science to treat covid patients, death rates will be minimal.
The spanish tourist minister claims Spain will be open by Spring, personally I think it will be July and many restrictions will be in place for the next two/ three months for general travel. Clearly we know that will be slightly different for travel to South Africa, Portugal and Brazil!
Big Blue - I was on a conference call last week with this exact topic as the main discussion point and your points are very valid.
Beyond what you are saying, it's also useful in future development of covid related vaccines and thought avenues on intentional spread of a potential harmless strand to ultimately wipe it out (blue sky thinking!)
BA have reacted to the upcoming hotel quarantine concerns by extending their book with confidence policy. This was due to end in august and has been extended till February 2022 - this has been welcomed by frequent flyers and I've personally got 16 trips already scheduled over the next 11 months. How many of those that actually happen is anyone's guess but the appetite to travel for leisure and business is huge!
I was pretty worried yesterday when the media was giving the impression the hotel quarantine rules were going to take a blanket approach. However, it seems much more targeted which will have a minimal impact for IAG long term.
The vaccine roll out will reward travel greatly, even with the EU delays, many countries are expecting mass take up of the vaccine by the summer and every country has a target to offer a vaccine to people that want it by the end of the year.
I can see this improving dramatically over the next 4 weeks and due to this, I will be increasing my position in IAG.
Aer Lingus - still expecting significant travel but from September according to the Irish Government. Flights to and from the UK wont be harmed. The US routes from the UK are still expected to start this year
BA - South Africa will be a minor hit. In 2019, we were averaging around 6 flights a day to J Burg, Cape Town and Durban (combined total). Portugal - around 8-12 per day depending on the season and Brazil was once per day. Still see a huge uplift in travel from July onwards and a very strong Q3/4 & Q1 2022
Iberia - Inter European routes are expected to increase from July, LATAM connections could be affected in the short term
Level/ Vueling - Summer will be the kick start for our low cost arm
I wouldn't be worried, its a good decision they've made knowing their target audience will all have the vaccine by April.
The vaccine gives anywhere between 60-95% protection which will significantly limit a break out on board a cruise ship
Steve - your comment that the US can recover but Greece cannot. I disagree.
The US is a huge global trader, I travel 50 plus times a year and no matter where I am, i hear american accents. They are hurting like the rest of the world and need business visitors and tourists to recover.
Also, look at the bailouts US airlines have received. They need to be flying to pay back the debt!
I dont think high level travel will be with us until July, but in H2, I expect some major recovery with many routes being back in full swing!
real shame about Norwegian.
I used them quite a bit to Norway/ Denmark etc but not long haul. They are by far the best low cost airline (it's like travelling on the orient express compared to RYA)
I've not got a single upcoming flight with them as the writing is on the wall sadly. I really hope IAG can snap them up, put them in one world and improve our inter european offering with code shares (but dont take on their debt!)
I think you're right on Norwegian. I like that airline, its hands down the best low cost carrier and I've wanted IAG t take them over since Air Berlin ceased trading (obviously without all the debt!)
Virgin will survive, we're talking about a few additional months of hardship, Branson wouldnt let that take his prize asset down.
Like I said the other day, this new surge in cases and national lockdowns across the world is not the end of the world. There were limited prospects in Q1 anyway, these restrictions and the vaccine will help slingshot travel for q2,3,& 4.
Personally, I really don't see problems with the new lockdown. If anything, I think its a positive for BA (tourism).
If we go into full lockdown now, it will lead to little flying between now and the end of Feb/ perhaps March. However, we'll be creating a very strong situation for aviation as the cases will naturally drop (but not go to zero), it will show the new strand is manageable, deaths will deteriorate to a very very low number (perhaps single digit by March) and the vaccine will start taking action - if we average 1.5 million doses per week (the government are aiming for 2m per week) that would equate to 12 million vaccinations by the end of February (that basically means that every person over the age of 65 could be vaccinated)
I'm feeling very positive about my investment, it will have bumps but by the summer when cases are dropping globally, there will be many full IAG planes in the sky! Currently (with or without lockdown) there arent many planes and the planes that are flying arent very full!
Invest to progress
Are you thick?
1. BA doesn’t rely purely on leisure travel so it’s not a long gap till august! Personally, I predict May will see huge steps to normality and regular travel
2. LHR is in tier 4 but the government have made it clear you can travel to LHR from any part of the country for air travel purposes
3. LGW - it’s actually tier 3 but irrelevant anyway as you can travel to any tier for air travel (but can’t travel full stop if you live in a tier 4 location
Please get your facts correct!
There were so few flights happening over Christmas, I really don’t think this will make much of a difference.
Looking at Dubai, it still seems demand outweighs supply as its extortionate
I had a very long call with the BA gold team last night to help book a Feb trip to Dubai. He said 75% of the company were currently on furlough. That’s more than I thought