Member Info for PortfolioPower

That YouTube video cover MATD and CHAR aswell.

Also the Lasonde Curve.

It got a decent amount of info.

I'm very happy to trade around the moves just felt its worth pointing out what I thought they would do with a RNS intra day or after hours and true to form they went and did it.

I think a few might have seen my post earlier as DVH and a few other also admitted to banking today's gains right after and then the price retraced.

That spiked the guy who loaded 2 x £7k buys at the days high.

I'm even more cautious about this outfit after the way it appears insiders would have been free to sell ahead of the ADV duster.

The nomad has stepped in twice now in this latest incarnation.

Good video on YouTube titled " My worst trade : Advance Energy" by portfolio matters (no relation)

I've made a several profitable trades out of them, but I'm super wary that's all as I'm fully expecting games and it hasn't failed to deliver.

It's a good stock to trade. All was saying earlier is that you need to be all over it with eyes glued to the price action which I'm sure you are anyway.

If anyone hasn't seen that YouTube video there are some takeaways that can be applied to all O&G explorers so would recommend.

As posted earlier on today.

"expect intra day RNS or releases at strange times as has wrong footed some in the past."

This is the 5hithousery you should expect to get from companies that have changed names half a dozen times in their history as I previously mentioned.

This is why day traders close out before end of each day.

Yeah, you got it Kev

As we know, things tend to cycle from boom to bust and back again in exploration companies and the optics are all important in driving sentiment.

LB hasn't yet earned her AIM CEO stripes in my eyes.

Some of the more battled hardened hard-nosed CEO's would have categorically rolled out any prospect of any fund raise this year.

Could have dismissed all such talk claiming sufficient cash runway until next year and the rampers would have had lift off.

She needs to throw more than just a few breadcrumbs.

Maybe a better script is incoming next week :-))

I've previously set out the various phases of the cynical take process.

Seems like it's catching on now. :-))

Tried and tested playbook

if the company can successfully navigate through steps 1-4 set out in my post on the 'He1 interview thread' on 11//8/23 @ 14.02

There should be an excellent trading opportunity.

Just don't be holding the baby at step 5. Lol.

If you look back through this trail I mentioned it has a history of looking leaky ahead of news.

But, its also one to be on your guard with at all times when mid trade.

I.e don't take your eye off it and expect intra day RNS or releases at strange times as has wrong footed some in the past.

GL.

SGLP

Yeah dai, the problem everyone has with Discounted Cash flow models being employed pre discovery and estimated flow rate information is that its a pure finger in the air stuff and not arrived at based on any known figures.

DCF works properly once the flow rates are known, plus the size of the discovery as then at that stage one can accurately predict what the expected annual revenues will be (based upon the prevailing underlying resource market price) over how many years into the future and with this information the company can then approach a lender to raise development finance based upon the ability to repay from expected cash flows.

We all see lots of 'discoveries' that are announced on AIM that never get funded from traditional bank debt as the total expected revenues over the lifetime of the asset don't even cover the true cost of production and end up perpetually concined to the 'lifestyle' basket where they are always "close to reaching breakeven" in every annual report but never ever do. They can be excellent shares to trade as you are guaranteed at least 1 or 2 placings every year with the promise that one day they will reach positive cash flow.

The LTH's end up frustrated and get angry blaming the BoD but sometimes its just that the project itself isn't actually anywhere near as productive as was once estimated.

Anyway, whilst it's good to learn and understand the project economics, none of this really matters if you can take advantage of the short term price action to your benefit.

Thanks Dai,

I quickly scanned the bb earlier to see if any relevant info was on there and made the mistake of reading a couple of threads from that cybertron poster :-) that was as much as i could take.. lol.

My question might be a better poised based upon SP targets etc and how much 'success' is presently built into the SP and how much closer to the maximum total gross bcf target with high flow rates of free gas at those expected grades does Tai need to confirm to really move the needle?

Assuming the present SP represents fully risked values for all the other Targets as they stand + an element of slightly de risked value for Tai.

It's probably far better for the potential SP upside to say that Tai isn't really that de risked at this stage regardless of what has been stated previously as the more de risking remains the greater the upside potential.

I might re visit the latest analysts reports to get a feel for potential maximum unrisked values on Tai. Although its now fairly out of date and makes some assumptions that hasn't been the route the company has gone down, so needs to viewed with caution I guess.

I've seen it noted that the surveys identified gross maximum 5.9 bcf at Tai. 15% CoS etc.

What would be the absolute minimum bcf recoverable at Tai for it to be considered a success

Combined with what flow rates MCFGPD @ ? % Helium would Tai need to throw off to be considered commercial and worthy of developing into production if they can find free gas?

OK, curiosity has plagued me about this 90% SP fall YTD for DME.

Looks like it's not just the placings after all.

Had to go onto Stocktwits (UGH)

Navigating through all the USA based heavy trolling that's going on over on their BB and it looks like there's a delay/issue with their US permits.

That's caused the shorters to have a field day by the looks of things and SP is down -90% YTD.

Award winning in 2022.

Not sure it's winning any awards in 2023... lol

Unless most trolled share 2023 is a thing.. :-)))

Desert Mountain Energy are 100% the real deal.

They have been chosen as the recipient of “Best Helium Exploration and Development Company – North America” by the Canadian Business Awards 2022.

This amongst multiple other awards and innovations.

Go and check out their website.. very professional set up and has all the market announcements

I guess It's just that repeated placings have been required since their discovery to enable them to raise the necessary cash requirements for production.

I think Dai mentioned He1 would need to raise between £50m to £75m to get into production if they go it alone.

They could of course sell Tai and remain an exploration company and go again with other areas.

Or they could do a JV.

If they do go it alone, it's best to have an understanding of the journey that one of the sectors award winning peers has had to go through to raise sufficient finance.

Maybe bank debt might be an option or convertibles but why didn't DME obtain bank funding? Is their any banks willing to fund helium or will it have to be done via equity?

Normally an offtake agreement is required to enable a bank to lend.

Is there any helium off takers out there?

Personally, I wouldn't be rushing to get into production at this stage of the game.

If I was Lorna. I'd make a clear market announcement on Wednesday that their core focus is not Just on proving a discovery at Tai, but on building up a very large district scale portfolio of multiple discoveries to grow their resource as large as possible, making it as an attractive proposition as can be.

That way the market can look forward to several other exploration drills to get excited about regardless of the outcomes at Tai.

-

Just thought it worth referencing DME as a benchmark should they start talking 'production plans' and going it alone.

Kev,

DME are listed in Canada and their Helium discovery is in the USA.

All safe and and easy jurisdictions.

6 Wells planned to come into production.

I guess when the market knows that a massive raise is needed to fund the move into production, the SP sells off once the excitement of the initial discovery is made.

Then the company has to issue a prospectus to get the funding they need so its a bit like starting all over again from a new base.

Might be worth going over all those desert Mount energy announcements as looks like there SP is doing a classic 'lasonde curve' post that discovery announcement and the resulting finance raising that has to be done (if going it alone) to get them into production.

Back in 2021.....

"Desert Mountain Energy Corp. is pleased to announce that it has completed additional work on Well #2 and has discovered helium and hydrogen in a lower portion of the previously perforated formation"

They announced 4.1% heluim. This was apparently classed as 'commercial', and lab results showed contained Nitrogen 91.970% Helium 4.171% & Hydrogen 3.832%

Not sure what has happened since that 2021 discovery announcement but they are down 90% from their SP highs to around GBP £20m market cap now.

That's some pain for those LTH's that have held on from that 2021 announcement until now.

Spotted that former He1 CEO Thomas Abraham-James (pre DM days) Has made a reappearance in a new CEO role at Pulsar Helium.

They are due to list on the TSX and have recently filed their prospectus.

They will be developing their Topaz project in the USA which boasts a helium concentration of 10.5% (apparently one of the highest grade helium drills in the world) the also have a further Greenland based project.

He has just released a interview on Crux investors (not listened to it yet)

-

You guys might also want to take a look at Desert Mount Energy Corp and the journey their SP has been on.

They announced a Helium discovery back in 2021.

There SP ran up significantly to over 200m market cap but has since retraced all the way back down.

SP waking up today

RNS out

Let the games begin :-)

Tro

Saw your "5 minutes of whinging" coment over on KEFI bb and thought that was pretty accurate description of the HAA interview.

Also a very good example of what happens to the SP of any AIM junior trying to go it alone and move from a being an exploration company into a producer post discovery.

The lasonde curve is also a good illustration but doesn't quite tell the whole picture especially if the discoveries are in frontier jurisdictions and post the discovery announcement excitement the reality of repeated SP dilution over many years before any income can ever be generated with timelines forever getting pushed back means the LTH's who simply hold through the whole process get diluted to oblivion.

I've traded KEFI in the past and if there is a sign that their mine financing is finally going to land I'll be in for another trade.

However, that CEO interview didn't fill me with much confidence that anything is about to happen anytime soon.

Bringing it back to He1....

If He1 announce a dicovery I'd personally be closing out all positions at that stage as that will be the peak SP.

CHAR was both a similar SP and market cap to He1 (trading around 9p) just ahead of when they announced their discovery and they ran up to 24p

It's just slowly drifted back ever since ranging in a decending channel.

Can't personally see why He1 would be in any rush to move into becoming a producer if they do make a discovery, especially if the value of the helium is going to be worth multiples in 20 years time.

I'd be sitting tight on that asset and dragging my heels for as long as possible and go full scale lifestyle mode for a decade or so. :-))

Pre revenue AIM companies operating in the mineral discovery sector are rarely good long term holds.

Even those rare cases that see multi year SP appreciation are still highly volatile and typical peak at some stage only to see a 95% retracement from their ATH's.

Yeah, the Kod v Prem has been going on for years now.

Again, it's just irrational that some posters will have missed out on a potential double bubble multi-bagger purely because they fell out with another poster on their 'rival' bb.

Utter madness.