RE: all over for BMN?17 Jun 2022 10:12
An expanded hypothesis (that's all, do not use for decisions). Thinking further about fatbanker’s posting a few weeks ago, and price action.
MUST is anticipating relisting soon (?July) – a prospectus & other documents are already with the FCA. On suspension the MUST mcap was £3M (a peak value). The majority of shares (51.5% from the MUST website) are held between Acacia Resources (also a major BMN shareholder), the NE Chairman and the MD. A buyout of and RTO into MUST could be feasible, sooner rather than later – enabling BMN into the main London market, and also JSE dual-listing.
Cash would be needed – some millions, but not lots of millions, to give value to MUST shareholders/team, and for the costs of listing changes. A guess, but maybe 4-6% BMN dilution, at around current sp? BMN already has cash and may well have additional profits not yet reported, but that money being earmarked for the main aspects of the business and expansion, not for AIM-exit.
Now (contentious part), perhaps money has already effectively been raised over recent weeks partially or completely and is responsible for the more recent drop down from 10p. That would fit with others’ hypotheses that Duferco are either completely out, or have some shares left but haven’t been selling <10p. Then you look at the big sells, and probably lots of smaller ones since the sp went below 10p, tot those up and consider – could a few million £ already be effectively ‘in the bag’ and ready to go to make an offer on MUST next month? The shares attached to that money now effectively being in the hands of the people who have been buying sub 10p. To emphasise, I have no idea if this could be correct, just mulling it as a possibility.
Now (good part), this hypothesis would mean we would get what comes with MUST purchase, and the main London market listing + JSE. We would have the benefits of the new listings and new broker (Cellcube, North American profile etc.). Then consider it may coincide with an upturn in comms and positive news that seems to have been lacking, high volumes, ii buying, no more big sellers, the single penny shares gone fast, re-rate to levels where we had been hoping and expecting. It also supports the ideas that JSE investors can get a (brief) opportunity for a low entry point, and that Acacia are not holding 45M BMN shares expecting the sp to be staying down here.
Just a hypothesis.
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