Member Info for Pondering

I felt from the presentation, and generally, that the risk/problem level has gone up - field issues, associated cash costs, low sp if/when there are further placings, and no change in the hubristic approach. There are obvious potential drivers to a big rise in sp (production increase, better financing), but so far they have not been delivered. Not the fault of the unsophisticated investor.

It's still the dilapidated country house analogy - with a couple of cottages on the grounds, and some old wine discovered in the cellars. Various problems have been found in the house that weren't expected, and have cost extra money. It still looks quite a mess. But one of the cottages has been bought, we believe. The bank appears happy to give a mortgage now, but that need to be sorted asap, as interest rates are going up. We also need some work on the pipes sorting, as there's a smell of gas. House and wine prices have been going through the roof. We've decided to go this alone, so there is a risk. We tend to call on the 'bank of mum and dad' whenever it gets tricky, but that could eventually could lead to a family rift if it goes too far. The house needs to be in saleable condition for a good profit, and but it could take another year and more. We're not really sure how much wine has been found in the cellars, and the potential value, but someone is looking into it.

Options seem to be?:
- Extension
- MUST readmission and nothing else immediately relevant to BMN
- MUST readmission and something (good?) tied with BMN/BE
- MUST CLN holders get ~8-9% (dilution) of BMN at ~6p per share; BMN/BE gets 22.1% MUST share of VRFB-H?

Dummy trades - MMs currently allowing big sells, but much more limited buys. A sign that they want people to sell at this level. I suspect there's been some PI selling, but encouraged and oversold. Others taking the opportunity to get in at this price.

Some of it is general market, but not enough to be an excuse. Going forwards: More info on sales/profits during 2022, kiln 3 fully operational, clarification of BE plans that are favorable to BMN shareholders, not being trapped into exercising the MUST CLN backstop, electrolyte plans for next year, any other positive information (main listing possibility etc). I wouldn't think of selling at a >5 year low, when the company is making operational progress. But the route and timeline out of this low sp depends on these factors and how they are handled by the BoD - sooner rather than later. More carrots for buyers, fewer for cheap sellers.

Yes, I saw that. Seems he's not quite got round to resigning yet.

Hopefully, this will prove correct: "...political changes should enable change to occur more rapidly with increased international cooperation and an overriding requirement to encourage foreign investment and job creation in the country".

"...frequent information requests..." and "...the support we are now seeing from...". I'm somewhat reassured by those phrases - they don't read as there being any local obstructions, other than procedural.

The current situation in SL may affect the capex deal/timing more than the IML. I can't see anyone external to Sri Lanka signing off on a deal until it's more stable there - unity government, protesters gone home, fuel/other basics etc, and IML granted. Hopefully things can improve for the country, at least with a new government.

RNA’s don’t seem to give any details of ‘small print’, though there could be. The Orion CLNs expire 3 years from issue, which will be Dec 2023 (RNA 30/11/20). They have a 10% pa coupon. I’d assumed if they expire unconverted then the CLN and coupons would need to be repaid - either from profits by December 2023 (hopefully), or by refinancing. Orion would lose out on some additional profit from receiving and selling the shares, based the sp going persistently above 17p to sell. My take, fwiw. Interested if any small print / clause spotted.

The dummy buys and sells won't tell you definitely, bearing in mind that those two trades were not normal trades. As the MMs got some at 5.10p, they could sell at 5.11p to someone without loss - but I expect not to a PI on a usual trading platform. I don't know for certain, so will leave at that. We are in agreement that MF should be coming out with more info on progress and plan.

Failing on my non-posting.
Although showing as sells on LSE, it's possible/probable they are not all sells. As you know, LSE guesstimates buys and sells, and not always correctly.
Assuming all of the trades up to and including the 5.10p 300K @ 13:37:52 are sells. However, the next two are marked as "non-protected portfolio" which (from ADVFN) is "Normally a transaction of a number of stocks dealt with by one market maker at an agreed discount to the market price". So, they could be discounted 200K and 210K buys at 5.11p - by whom?
Doesn't alter that the sp is currently 5.15p and the market is looking for some reassurance.

£39M mcap. Just need those RNAs.

Could be relisted before. If not relisted by 31st, and not extended, then as I understand the possibility of the backstop comes in, which seems not so preferable for us at this low sp. If relisted in July (or extended and relisted later), then back to the question of ?take-over of MUST etc and whether funds are already in place for that. Quite different possibilities. Interested in other thoughts. If not seen:
http://www.mustangplc.com/documents/Annual%20Report%202021.pdf

Reminder - major shareholders: https://capitalmetals.com/our-investor-relations/shareholder-analysis/
MF holding (from RNS 9/2/22): 13,190,006 ... total holding includes 8,843,048 shares held by Chulu Holdings Pty Ltd ATF The Chulu Trust, and 3,000,000 shares held by [his] spouse.
Back to waiting and not-posting.

He did say in the investor meet that RS report press (etc) release requires RS sign-off. They are in N. America, so presumably still open.

PS Not ruling out the idea that it could get to multiples of current sp earlier.

Like others, no firm info. Not been paying much attention over recent weeks. I'm on-board with the plan that AM outlined in the last investor-meet - building a company incrementally that should be worth many multiples, but not likely realised until 2023 and beyond. Re CNOOC - AM of course commented on this on the investor meet 1:34:20. His mindset on that seemed clear to me. I can see why he would want to complete the set.
As a longer-term investor, not pleased with the current sp ofc. I'd certainly like him to release any good news asap, rather than hold it back.
Usual suspects all green-boxed, plus a couple of additions today.

Some run out of cash or willingness to keep averaging down, and new investors going what’s happening here? We could do with any games reaching their conclusion and an ‘explanatory’ RNS or two.

"potential transaction relating to the Company's interests at La Zarza" - sale, or other?

(Asset from website: landholding over the La Zarza deposit - 210 hectares; data assets including the drillhole database, JORC resource block models and all feasibility study testwork, designs and models; 24 kilometres of diamond drill core).

If sale, then still leaves the bigger question what will be done with the total cash.

Thanks Ben

And they would make a quick and decent return because we would probably pay more than 30p a share. That’s how I understand it, anyway!