Member Info for Pondering

MMs don't seem to have many currently. Getting NT to buy £720.

R1ck5 - we have to take what we have available “The considerable energy required to make gold only occurs when stars explode in a supernova or when neutron stars collide.”

Liked the drone flight video and commentary over the wells and facilities. Looks ‘clean’ and modern. Not much impact on the landscape. The windfarm. Not sure if has already been commented on, but the first presenter is perhaps AM’s daughter?

Were they obliged to release this RNS? Reads initially negative, but both wells still very much in play. Guessing that, optimistically, they will suddenly produce after the remedial work/recompletion at another level, and then the sp will rise again. Whether intentional, or just the way it is with wells.

This is my opinion for the BOD really, on the possibility that any monitor this bb. I would like to see innovative thinking on this. Instead of attempting to pump up the sp in a market that’s not responding, they should place higher than the current sp to indicate and stimulate confidence for the market. I have seen a few other companies do this and it drew a lot of positive interest and sentiment, rather than the negative that a lower placing brings. They should have no worries doing this as current fair value is 33.3p from the RNS. Given that the previous placees are in at 12p, and buying a large number of shares on the open market in current liquidity would push this above 12p anyway. A premium placing with other methods of funding as well indicates a premium company.

Nut shell(s): Slow progress esp. integrated model, 2-stage duferco deal, covid.
All 3 are still factors that are playing out. When they cease being factors, the sp will rise.

Podcast - neither good nor bad. "PR-done" tick-box exercise perhaps, but non-impactful
To stimulate consistent buying will need the mining license (should be a given) and a good (minimal-dilutive) finance deal.
And Omicron being downgraded from covid to a common cold virus would be a bonus also.

Not much going on. Few selling at a loss probably. Others trying to catch if this is the bottom. Getting proper sentiment back will need an RNS convincing that a placing price ~1/3 down from the previously prevailing sp was worth it. Short-term improved bopd numbers could help a bit. To be fair, in his Oct interview, AM did say he was looking a year ahead. No spare cash, not selling, nothing to do but wait.

I guess people (especially in SA) keeping an eye on this anyway - but BBC story in last hour on omicron. Doesn't read too bad, considering. Now the dominant strain, people being reinfected, but apparently not with much increase in hospitalisation.

...says Prof Salim Abdool Karim of the Africa Task Force for Coronavirus... "But the feedback we're getting from the ground is that there's really no red flags - we're not seeing anything dramatically different, what we're seeing is what we are used to," he told the BBC's Newsday programme.

"The BBC's Pumza Fihlani in South Africa's biggest city, Johannesburg, says that restaurants and supermarkets remain packed, ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays. People are talking about the new variant - but so far there's little panic and, according to scientists, there shouldn't be".

I doubt the derampers making much difference to most holders, though could put off some new buyers.
Me - holding 100%. Not super-long, though had COPL shares since before Atomic was ever mentioned
Holding until back in modest profit at least, which like many of us is a long way up from here
Timing and target to be readjusted on next few RNS's
Art to ofc stay and finish CUDA. I expect him to get it done. I do think a new broom after that would actually add to company value, but can't see it happening anyway.
For new buyers - no-one can say this is the bottom, but it's certainly very low!

Sadly, I'm not sure it is the best negotiating strategy to show that you're prepared to trash your own company's sp to acquire another. It doesn't demonstrate ambivalence about the outcome, which is really what you need when the other party is in a bind.

This feels like a turning point for Art. He has not thought the impact of this 20p mates placing enough. Nothing for me personally to do but hold as I wouldn't chance selling at this sp when the company is fundamentally is a strong position. However, I have already passed on a message to the two investor relations email (for what they are worth), that I will vote for a new CEO if and when given the chance.

Needs an RNS today imo, not silence.

If he doesn't get CUDA now, and at a very good deal, he should be toast, though it's difficult to see. There's a gap he's created in confidence and trust here that he should be filling asap. If he has any influence over the placing ii's (if they have any left to sell), he should probably have a word with them as well. Long term not concerned, but we should not be facing the current sp.

In two minds still. I do suspect pi's have been actively shafted in favour of ii's, but I think we have been shafted whilst getting the company into a more interesting (better) position.

Re the threshold for "real" iis - the new share base makes £50M mcap now equal to 25.71p. So an unexpected bonus of dilution when we get back to that level ;-) Bearing in mind that should be COPL + CUDA mcap. Looking forward to updates to the resident calculators estimates of true value when more is known.

Accelerated placing points to an early RNS on CUDA if there was an agreement in principle and just a matter of form signing and money transfer.

Art should really be getting news out soon (e.g. today/tomorrow) to both steady the ship and add some horsepower.

Not much forward selling probably due to the "accelerated" bookbuild. They're likely to clear in the early 20s for their 10-20%, though possible some could be "stickier". So a chance maybe for some to buy and sell in this narrow range (not thinking of any in particular) until they are cleared. As always, positive news flow will help to clear quicker. I assume there will be less apparent reluctance to release news now. If CUDA news released, hopefully will be seen as a good deal. Then will be back to fundamentals, and bopd bottom-line.

Short-term neutral. Always have to consider that CUDA is still not a done deal.
However, if that news comes in due course, then long-term should be good.
Shock to calm in <1 hour. And google finance with a little green blip.

At least we know before opening. If there is any drop below 20p, not expecting it to be sustained now.

Agree with LB for once. 20p or 15p.

As I understand it, accelerated book building is usually completed in ~48 hours, or less. The price does not have to be below the previous sp, if there is demand from investors, but why would there be when they could have bought for 21p on the open market.
Stolen from investopedia:
Book building is the security price discovery process that involves generating and recording investor demand for shares during an initial public offering (IPO) or other issuance stages. The issuing company hires an investment bank to act as underwriter. The underwriter determines the price range the of the security and sends out the draft prospectus to multiple investors. The investors bid the number of shares that they are willing to buy, given the price range. The book is open for a fixed period of time, during which the bidder can revise the price offered. After a predetermined period of time, the book is closed and the aggregate demand for the issue can be evaluated so that a value is placed on the security. The final price chosen is simply the weighted average of all the bids that have been received by the investment banker.

Expect we will end up with CUDA, and that it will be good in the longrun, but the method is very much not desired and the timing re the sp is unfortunate to say the least. Likely scenario - a dropped price for the investors, then CUDA acquired fairly quickly, then good news on various other fronts (bopd, Nigeria?), then a period whilst the new investors sell out, then the share price will rise dramatically. However, it seems to me the timeline for the latter has been pushed back by a considerable number of months.

Does look like someone decided to add confidently to their portfolio. Always the the off-chance this could happen by coincidence just before good news arrives.