Member Info for Pondering

Yes, with this share it doesn't take too many sells to knock the price down. The reverse also can be true.

It's a long RNS with a lot of detail, though in the current market and low volume for the share, the reaction is predictable. Note the previous RNS as well. In my simple interpretation, there could still be good news to come from further drilling in progress/planned, though they are not going to be scraping gold up with a digger. To me, seems sad people selling whilst the company is still pursuing more than one approach to identify value here. It does seem to be a piece of string tied to some uncertainty at the moment, but exploration still continuing and drills turning. I'd like to see more view of their ultimate plan, if value is proven by the further drilling, to provide some encouragement that they are thinking about their underwater investors. Ho hum holding.

Wot HarryWh said.
Still 'stale' big sellers to clear.
PI's can sell now if they are stressed and want to crystallise their loss or profit.
Tune out & stop looking minute to minute and day to day.
It's a company, it's producing oil, it will produce more oil.

It can take the market a while to catch up.

The 'other site' has number of shares traded today as 4,514,780,306. The algorithms that predict what trade was a buy and what is a sell are unreliable. As the SP did close at 0.38, and is now 0.405, it might be inferred there were slightly more buys than sells. Either way, a huge number of trades occurred today (approx 1/4 of the total).

Mostly, we have just observed shares at <0.38p (and quite a lot lower) being swapped for those who bought today at 0.44p +/- a bit. This tells us very little currently how much the market values COPL, as the transition is still ongoing. To me it's a no-brainer, that even anywhere close to this volume continuing, the number of shares still being sold at the current level will diminish to "not many" and the market will adjust closer to whatever it considers value on the available information. Then there should be hopefully more good news to come.

Negative - an under-appreciation perhaps of how many shares were to be cleared at 0.4x.
A thought for Art - if possible, to not give out too many more new shares going forwards. Use existing funds, profits and improved finance as much as possible. Accepting this was necessary previously to transform COPL to a sizeable producer and get Atomic at the low price and right time.
Positives - Huge trading volume. There's a limit to the available 'cheap' shares. And COPL is in a great position.
Mixed, but comfortable overall, because I've been able to buy more shares unexpectedly at this price and confident in the fundamentals.

Just a guess that some have taken a loss from here over to COPL today. I know there is some overlap in SENX/COPL holders, including myself. It could well be an explanation for the further drop here today, and not reflecting any change particularly in SENX. If so, these people may or may not return.

I'm holding these still, though not happily at the moment. I think the company should to come up with a quicker plan on Sancrai to work out if (hopefully) commercial. At present, the situation has been left too uncertain to attract lots more buying in a generally suppressed market. They are doing ok with profits, but need to demonstrate longer-term sustainability as well.

Opinion marked as "Hold".

Nate - other ii's recognising now being the best time to get in perhaps.

Agree, bigbear2. It's about clearing out the old and bringing in the new. Volume is key, and the volume is massive.

Yes, trust in MMs motivation is a lot lower than in the company management!
I will sign off anyway. I'm sure there are others here with much better SENX and general O&G knowledge.
GL

I agree, it's nonsense. My take...

I do think it's possible if they can convince the Sancrai field commercial, selling up in the future wouldn't be ruled out. He said as much in the meeting i.e. that 'everything is for sale'. However, I think the plan was more likely 2 x positive RNS's, share price rise to 5-6p on combined news, well producing, possibly strategic placing at say 5p for more wells in the field and/or another acquisition (all speculation). Sell at a higher price sometime after that if someone is sufficiently interested. Anyway, absolutely no indication in my mind from the meeting that they actually want the SP at this level now.

On the well, I think it was 100K per day cost to keep trying perforations, so costs could have mounted up over some days, and if unsuccessful would have been a worse RNS. Taking a pause on the well allows them to decide on a new plan A and crucially to have a plan B prepared also (e.g. if they decide to try another perforation at a certain level, but it is unsuccessful in producing flow).

LON COPL volume in the run-up days to suspension was ~500M-1B/day.
Reasonable to suppose it will be significantly higher on days after re-opening. 2x? 3x? more?
That's a critical factor - even if some larger holders sell up, I expect they will be gone quickly.
It will not be like other shares with low volumes, where you can wait weeks and months for sellers to be gone.
imo.

I listened all the way through. Confident we have a good man in place. Sancrai - we will likely have to wait some months. Indicates new gas field, so that's good. Obvious question (answer unknown at present) how much more will it cost (more perforations of existing well, or have to drill another?) to prove commercial. One or two interesting comments he threw in e.g. other possible acquisition might be being considered, but no specifics. Obviously, he's frustrated that he's generally got the company into a better place, but SP is down. Bottom line (my interpretation) they have a decent amount of time (4-5 years perhaps) to get new resources up, though hopefully we will have good news in months, rather than years. Holding, may add when other funds freed up.

Dunno about corporate action. I've had previous episodes (non-COPL) where different share broker platforms have been late getting 'up and running' to allow trading on the restart day i.e. delayed beyond 8am. Probably someone eventually rang them up and said 'wtf, others are trading, get on with it'. Not a particular concern for me, as I have no plans to buy or sell any on day 1 anyway. Same ticker and no consolidation (yet) means should be easy for them, so hopefully will all go smoothly.

The two 1.5Ms are delayed reports from yesterday (presumably they are disappointed re their timing)
The 2M:
12-Aug-21 17:06:08 2.06 2,000,000 Buy* 2.00 2.10 41.20k O
Hopefully correctly allocated as a buy, indicates some confidence from someone.

Small trade volume differences disproportionately affecting the SP downward recently. Can and hopefully will go the other way just as easily.

Opening - 0.78 (then up and down a bit)
End of day 1 - 0.98
After a few days - 1.68
Wouldn't be surprised if conservative though.
Also, not factoring in further BOPD or other good updates.

I sometimes look at the buys and sells and go "OMG millions of shares". Then I remember 1M shares is ~£750.

So we expect the Arcadia trial results in next couple of weeks. Not an expert in commercial aspects, but value-wise if the results are positive, there will be various factors - current and predicted prevalence of in potential markets and probably also some upfront pharma 'splashing of cash' in case there is a resurgence due to more variants emerging. Then questions about other possible trials in diabetes, long-covid, non-diabetic/pre-diabetic obese, etc. I think there may have been some reduced interest recently as people see the pandemic as coming to an end, but really it's going to remain endemic worldwide. If the trial is positive, I see very good gain for Vela, particularly due to the investment actually being tiny relative to budgets of big pharma.

Truth is that the trial results could be negative. If that happens, I guess we would expect at least temporary devaluing. We may take some comfort at least having contributed to important research. Then other company investments would have to take the load. Everyone invested should be aware of this possibility already ofc.

We will know one way or another fairly soon. Good luck to us.

The truth of a debate is usually somewhere in the middle . COPL has set-out a stepwise pathway to being a larger producer. The first step has been achieved. Therefore, there should be a good initial re-rate. (In my mind that's above 1p and below 2p). If other steps are achieved (increased BOPD from miscible flooding existing wells, new wells, more miscible flooding, possible CUDA share acquired, progress on Nigeria etc), then there could well be be more re-rates over time to more speculative levels, such as the title of this thread. This is the advantage of COPL over many other shares - that it's not just one step. Some of the future steps look firm and the potential of others can be seen. That will be what should encourage many new buyers to come in and stay for the interesting journey.

Company producing and current running at a profit. It's not the same as an explorer relying on a drill. Obviously, there are some questions about the best approaches from here to maintain and hopefully increase from existing production. Happy with the management team. Holding. I would have liked to have added in the bottom of the dip, but nil spare.

Snap