Member Info for Pondering

It looked like there was a big seller for some weeks. They seem to have gone quiet at least, which could be the explanation. Hopefully, if they've stopped, then we are on the proper up-slope now. Should know over the next day or two. Another good RNS will help as well ofc.

It's in the interest of funders and management with shares to get this running 'properly' and the sp higher again.
But the risk of some kind of 'default' has increased, or that profits will be servicing debts for a long time and further expansion difficult. ~7p, when most investors have averages >19p, is now the carrot to accept this situation. Or await more info and decide.

Unfortunately, the market reaction has been unsurprising for an RNS that says to me simply "more delays, costs, debt/dilution, reduced potential for profits, and increased overall risk - that the management didn't adequately prepare for or predict, whilst sending out messages of good progress". Benefit-risk ratio looks worse from the RNS and the market has reacted.

0.07p. Not significantly different to buying now. Bit more dilution on whatever the company is worth in the future, but if it is multiples from current value then will make no major odds.

(Got the answer for the reason for the SENX difference on the other board - essentially very small number of shares +/- different rules on WSE).

Thanks. Note to self to pay more attention. So, we are where we are, and they are where they are.

I've asked this on another board (SENX) as well, as it's on my mind.
What's the mechanism for the share price being mirrored (accounting for exchange rates) on AIM and ASX?
In the case of SENX, the share price on two exchanges (AIM and Polish WSE) is about 5x different (higher in Poland).
I'm happier with us mirroring Australia and vice versa - at least we are 'all in it together', even if it is a bit painful at the moment.

Someone will hopefully be able to educate me on this...

Noted (and mentioned on the board previously) that that SENX is trading much higher in Warsaw (as SEN ticker) - currently ~0.87 Zloty = ~16p.

Googling the topic of dual listings gives a page that says "Considering exchange rates and other complications, stock price should remain the same on both exchanges. If not, an arbiter will bring them together".

Another share that I hold (SO4) has sp that is almost always exactly mirrored (accounting for exchange rate) on AIM and ASX.

I assume there is something different about the SENX Warsaw traded shares?

Agree. Irritating though it is, I would want my bumps felt if I gave back the MMs any of my shares at this level.
Also, it seems harsh on the sp today with buys evident and only 14 trades.

I think the RNS was just for the locals, not for investors. It could be read as good comms, but we do need the proper "green for go" RNS.

General very poor on the markets recently and today - a shame to be kicked again at a time when we are already at a very low SP. Daltp98 - slightly worried that you did not correctly predict the bottom, hope all is ok! (Just mild humour as I noted you were very keen to predict it right). I certainly misjudged the time to buy by a considerably larger degree.

I remain optimistic - good resource, good comms from the company (imo), bigger fish than me invested, and logically should be win-win for Sri Lanka and investors. Risk as with all investments ofc.

Who actually decides the opening - 1) MMs based on an assessment of company value (I doubt it) or 2) MMs based on what they think will give them best profit or 3) MMs based on a medium opening and see where it goes with buys versus sells?

1p as always will be psychological (at least for many PIs, maybe not IIs) and could outweigh rational calculations around that level. As we know, everyone has their view, and we will only really find out on the day.

A lot of stuff on AIM based on pure speculation. However, it does appear SO4 have got this to the last rung of being about to produce. I didn't much like the indeterminate "in the weeks ahead" in the RNS. And the "Fine tuning of the flotation circuit is ongoing" sounds like a potential technical issue to be resolved. However, assuming production is going to start "fairly soon" (another indeterminate time-frame), it will be a milestone which many on AIM (also on ASX of course) try for, but never achieve. Demand for potash will remain. Enough for me to hold, and have averaged below the placings. There are risks of course and people have to make their own decisions on whether to sell, hold or buy at any time.

Like this. Very bullish and well presented RNS.

I wasn't planning to add more, but got a chunk yesterday for 17.xx. "Buy low" and this definitely looks low.
A reminder from their website "Lake Way will be the first producing asset within SO4's project portfolio with first SOP production expected in calendar Q2 2021. Once ramped up the project will produce 245kt per annum of premium SOP".

No problem. I'm optimistic about the results, or wouldn't be invested. However, bear in mind I have no inside information or crystal ball on the outcome. Like others, I'm trusting a fair degree to the fates of pharmacology versus biology and virology.
That will be all from me for today. Football and wine and time to relax.

It's not totally clear who will make final decisions on timing, but...
The Chief Investigator of the trial is Dr Kieran McCafferty, Consultant Nephrologist at The Royal London Hospital
....and the idea of investigating AZD1656 to reduce Covid-19 risk in patients with?diabetes?was developed by Professor John Martin and his team at St George Street, UK-based biomedical research charity.
So if positive, they will be sharing the good news.

The statisticians are just there to analyse the differences between the placebo and control groups for the clinical results. They will have nothing directly to do with the publicising of the results, or financial aspects. The 'important' people for the results and data are the chief investigator of the study, and the data monitoring committee. Investors will come after that.

As I mentioned below, the question is whether an interim report goes out into the public domain via early press release. Often interim clinical trial results are reported before the formal journal publication. This can be via press release, for example (but not necessarily exclusively) after presentation of the interim results at a medical conference. Hence, I do not think this has to wait for many weeks for the full publication. My expectation would be for a clinical press release and an RNS on the same day because of the price-sensitive nature of the results.

Regarding the results. The trial will have been 'powered' (i.e. number of patients included) based on potential differences the primary outcome i.e. percentage of patients improved after 14 days. If there is a benefit, it also has to be statistically significant (usually P value <0.05). If the primary endpoint is statistically significant then that will obviously be good news all round. If it does not reach this level, then it's still possible some of the secondary outcomes will be statistically significant. If the secondary outcome "mortality rate in patients receiving AZD1656 compared with placebo" is statistically significant, that will be amazing news, though is less likely to reach statistical significance because a trial with more patients would probably have been necessary to demonstrate survival difference.

If the trial is 'positive' on the primary (or other) outcomes, what the drug is worth then becomes outside my area of expertise, but I would expect a lot more than the cost of the trial.

I interpret as only one meeting, though agree it's a bit ambiguously worded. If it's two meetings, then I read that the TEC meeting is the concluding one, hopefully after the 'Government Departments' are satisfied with whatever they want to hear.

I'm expecting the licensing to be a separately reported outcome. If (when) the EIA is signed off, in my mind at least it will suggest that the licensing will likely be a formality, having been discussed already with the 'Government Departments'.

Opinion only, there is nothing useful online I have found about how the TEC meeting process works in practice.

"The Company is in close dialogue with the Government Departments and understand that the TEC will convene in July to review the EIA".

There doesn't seem to be any more to learn from Mr Google about the date of the meeting. However, we are definitely in July. Assuming the meeting is to be held remotely, then hopefully it will be going ahead as suggested.

Sri Lanka is on an improving downward trajectory from their recent covid peak, with new cases and deaths having dropped by about half in the last 4-5 weeks. It looks like it will be another 3-4 weeks to get back to 'level'. Hopefully, within the same timeframe, or less, we will be looking at a good news RNS.

No problem. I am medical and have published quite a lot, though this is not my area of specialism.
Not sure if this link will work, but also came across a study of diabetes in covid which further confirms that this is a group that needs targetting
tinyurl.com/yte8rs82