Member Info for Pondering

And finally, if the results are positive I expect the journal will fast-track as much as possible. Journals also have motivation to get these out quickly, as they add to citations, journal impact factor, reputation and revenue.

They will need to publish the final paper, including all outcomes. I expect that would be more in the 8 weeks range. Depends if they have a draft with blanks for results, journal interested already and peer-review lined up. Medical papers with many authors can take a while to complete, and the journal peer review process can also lead to some bouncing around.

So in my mind it is whether they are confident to release the interim results, without having gone through peer review. My reading was that there would be some interim results released before full publication, so I do expect something earlier rather than later.
Not prejudging whether the results are going to be positive - that we can hope.

The analysis will not be difficult for the statisticians. This is bread-and-butter stuff - import data into stats software, a few clicks of a button. There will be the usual personal factors of how high they prioritise this work, though fairly high I would imagine. In theory, the basic results could be done today if they set their mind to it.
I assume the primary and secondary outcomes will be reported, as no point reporting any benefits without any adverse events. The other outcome measures probably less urgent.
I think there may be some delay tidying the presentation of the results and press release.
My guess, it shouldn't really take more than a week.

Will depend on new buyer appetite and expectation. If it seems this will reach 4p this year, then people will be happy to pay 2p.

Yes, many won’t admit, or will object in principal, but for the ‘right price’. 25p now, 45p now etc?

Or wait and see what happens over the 2-4 years. With Orion 17p, Duferco I forget ?13p, more Duferco to come still in November? (Corrections welcome). Bypass all of those, get all but the unlucky PIs into decent profit, push the project forward. China though, and not often best to sell at time of pain.

My perspective, remaining a holder, though only modest part of portfolio. I consider this to be relatively ‘safe’ i.e. I have minimal concerns about major loss (unless of my own making by selling low). However, my expectations have diminished in terms of ceiling and timeframe. New investors now can probably set aims of 20% gain fairly quickly, but more than that looks like 2022 to me. 100p is fanciful to say the least. I suspect there are already significant seller obstacles to overcome when back in the 17-20p range and the company has not generated enough positive buying sentiment for volume to eliminate that quickly.
If I were a new investor, I would be tempted to buy at these levels. However, I have reached my self-imposed limit on this one. No longer paying close attention as, like many, underwater at this level. Will see what some months bring.

I’ve seen it happen once, but it was probably just random / a lucky guess from someone.

I do feel the extent is significantly due to the MMs here. Over the months they have often moved it down on very small daily volume/numbers/differences, and without very significant change either way in outlook, which remains very good imo.

By comparison, for example, EML - potash development in Morroco, a similar kind of proposition - is awaiting an EIA, which is taking a long time to come through. That share price has been essentially unchanged for 3 months, again with very small volume of activity. The MMs there seem happy there to take the profit from the spread, rather than majorly f-up the sp/mcap for the sake of a few hundred quid.

Irritated yes. Holding yes.

Thanks. If you are right, I will of course be very pleased.

Set your aim, stick to it, and be prepared to wait. If the target is 2p, you may have to wait some months or even 1-2 years in my view. If it opens at that price, it will be NT to trade and there will be a massive instant crash back into 0.xx before the average punter is able to sell. My feeling is to temper expectations and be prepared to be patient. There are not many opportunities like this that come along.

For further clarity for those apparently confused, if you look at the description of your own shares, or on the boil share price section of this site, you will see the description as "Baron Oil Plc Ord 0.025P". This is the nominal value of the shares that we all have, already, or if we buy more today. They get the same shares at the same value as the rest of us.

As share holders we all own a greater proportion of the asset as the benefit, along with the RNS-described improvement in likely ease of progressing the asset further.

The share price is not discounted. They are getting a number of shares in exchange for a proportion of the asset.

Yes, looks good to my reading. If you have something exciting, then you want 100% of it.
Not a placing as such, more shares yes, but value as per market value.
Lock-in to selling any (without BOIL permission) for a year.

Possible placing isn't really the issue imo, or even a major concern. There probably will be another placing at some point, but should be further down the line when the green light is on to go to proceed with extraction, and the sp is higher.

I think small volume/impatient/time-limited sellers, and others holding off buying until the EIA is fully through and that risk is gone. I would happily buy some at this stage, if I wasn't already invested, though don't believe in putting too much in one basket. Here's hoping they get the nod soon.

Yep, they have placed, they have consolidated. Time for some actual news.

Not read the blog, but sounds about right for timing. The company will want to get this through as quickly as possible and can't see them holding up with slow responses. Perhaps more a question if the responses are enough to get signed off without further to-ing and fro-ing.

The drift in sp has been a bit disappointing, but anticipating quick and firm reversal with good news. Someone (not me) has thrown in a 1-trade this morning as well, presumably just for a bit of fun rather than actually indicating an incoming RNS.

I do agree with the principle Edward. Assuming it is a placing as described, when it re-opens in Aus, the placing price and number of extra shares and probably the purchaser(s) will be known for investors to make better decisions. It could be argued that the London position is better, at least for new buyers, to possibly get a 'bargain' based on the uncertainty. Not for LTHs though. Pretty sure Australian investors will not be happy with their situation. Hopefully, they will stick it to the BOD for this event.

Assuming placing as described...
mcap currently ~£145M
Extra loan draw down = ~£23M
Extra shares to be issued to sweeten the lenders, at expense of LTHs (guess) £5-10M?
Placing shares SP - ideally at least 21-22p equivalent, bearing mind the trading price range since the March RNS.

On a positive, they should be rolling in money now and production beginning. No time to sell from my perspective.

Edward - I think likely the Australians will have an effect on re-opening, if we remain down, so no let-off for them.

Mgigimbe - this is also my query. Mealy-mouthed wording of the RNS referencing the previous 4th March RNS which does not mention capital raising as far as I see. Suggests that in the reorganisation of lenders there was an agreement also to raise more from investors as well? If so, presumably will be around 20p equivalent.

Looks perhaps like long-term holders treated with contempt unfortunately. Apart from the early Covid dip, the price has never been lower. I won't sell though, as I do see good recovery and profit from here - imho dyor etc.

Any other interpretation?

Not uncommon and happened here before (Also see e.g. COPL suspended in London, trading on Canadian market).
I agree, it will be a buying opportunity for some, but again I have all I can justify.
Just have to wait.

SP should have dropped based on more shares sold than bought. But a few largish sells made the difference and the degree of drop by the MMs way overdone IMO. The interview and RNS neutral for me. Happy to wait.