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I genuinely think 3bn T/O is gone now, basically we're being told FDA/UK/(EU) approval on (Successful) Phase III trial in 2021. 5-6b might be doable pre 2021/early 2021 depending. We get into Q1/Q2 with UK, EU, FDA approvals and £300m+ per month it could be higher depending on everything else. Confidence at Synairgen is overwhelming and major stakeholders will know the value.
This is going US, expecting US takeover so it can be US drug - Covid Treatment narrative for US market.
Not celebrating until the money is in my account. All goes to plan who is getting the Yacht to hold the party??
This is false as I see it.
Before investment, the company was limited on how they could take this forward to maximise value, they had 5+ million in the bank.
The 'Value' of the company is based on a number of underlying assumptions as to its value - investment was an expectation of that value to that point. Without investment (expectation) the SP would have been much lower.
The company now has 90m+ in the bank, so on an asset basis alone that additional 87m is being added to the value of existing shares, it also allows the company to put into place and complete the actions they are taking to maximise your investment by opening up a significant income stream in 3-6 months (possibly sooner). You could argue that the new investment is being heavily diluted by the existing shareholders but that's not true either.
We don't know what the discussions were - any JV/TO/Government offer may have resulted in the 'dilution' of your maximum value far far greater than this placing.
"Exactly CityTT, like £90-£180 a share. Their assumptions don't stand up to much scrutiny."
They said peak not average - would like to understand the annual forecast. Maybe they are they implying demand will peak and then fall away as COVID numbers fall.
Help me understand please - Broker notes are forwarding for 6 -12 months? (i.e. expect price to be within the next 6 -12 months).
If they revisit this every month/quarter/major news - we can expect regular upgrades on positive news?
Maybe I'm being naïve and impatient here. But get a bloody move on people are dying - the world in knee deep in poo.
420p today, finncap will increase on each positive news step.
The timelines on this are awful. Q2 Results, implication is Trial doesn't recruit until December? 2-4 months for analysis. Approvals into Q2/Q3?
Explains price guidance of 420p (if I understand correctly this is usually the expected price in 6-12months?)
Peak Revenues seems okay and in line with predictions here.
I contacted HL - nothing formal yet.
Formal stuff tomorrow I think (once they get the appropriate notices).
Forgot to mention - its for each account. (HL)
So if you have a SSA and an ISA ; with 37 shares in the SSA and 74 shares in the ISA then you have an option for EACH account.
i.e. offer for 1 share in the SSA and offer for 2 shares in the ISA - these are independent of each other. You need to apply in EACH account for EACH offer.
This is what HL tells me....
Dunk - you will have to sell within the ISA if you have no cash available within to fund the purchase.
Spoke to HL this afternoon - expect an action button (probably from tomorrow) that will allow you apply for the offer.
Yesterday:
It was unclear on the path ahead - many questions much speculation
What is the path to approval in US, EU, UK? Is the data enough?
Where does the money come from? For the 100k per month, For any Trials, on-going?
Who are the partners?
Today:
Many of those questions are answered - and they are good (IMHO), even very good. Lots happening in parallel - FDA IND is already written and ready to go just like the placing is a done deal.
We wanted a road map into US - we have it.
We wanted a road map into UK - we have it.
We wanted a road map into EU - I think we know where this is going? Who do you think are the other 18 countries?
Trial size is small and in being split across 20 countries, unlike home trial it occurs in the hospital setting, recruitment should be very quick.
It leads to Authorisation, maybe in accelerated timeframes - they will have sight of data, within 7-10 days of first dosing we could see noises on emergency approvals pending full approval on clinical data completion. I think it'll be January mostly because production needs to be there and that's when they told us it will be.
We know who owns this - the shareholders hold 100%, and the bank balance has been serious enhanced. The additional shares (monies) enhances the previous share position it does not dilute it.
Production is ramping up serious - we know who, how and when. (And its funded)
I'm fully locked now so only have to pick up the offer shares available. Maybe it'll go down in the short term, maybe it'll go up, I think the floor has been properly cemented though at 175-225. I feel less stressed about my investment today than I did yesterday.
GLA.
That would be so good!
Shouldn't take long to recruit 900 patients in 20 countries. UK has 4000+ in Hospital alone!
So what is the ratio likely to be? How does this usually work?
40m shares? 149m currently ~ 1 : 2.67? Plus any potential above then limited by subscription?
Thanks pmjh/everyone.
Just some thoughts:
Nothing happens in a vacuum, the clinigen deal was signed for a purpose. That purpose was to allow supply, that wouldn't have happened if RM hadn't been told that as an interim step it could be a way to supply pre-authorisation (one or more agencies would have said MAP authorisation is okay). Demand is there, RM provided that information, so I'd reasonably expect this to happen very soon (imminently). Would any country using MAP be RNS? (I don't know - we were told SNG is available under MAP so this might just form part of any future update as maybe not material enough.)
It seems plausible that Supply is the balancing factor - enough supply is available for MAP, and supply for authorisation will be there in Jan.
I'm all in the lets get SNG out there asap and saves lives (also great), I do wonder if we're still in the organising everything first stage. More news is due - not sure it'll be this week. Can October emergency authorisation be given on a "it'll be ready in Jan?"
FFC - it was a jokey kind of must be nice point. The situation allows for the MM to do it. Yes, we do hold the sell button.
I'm on HL so didn't realise that you'd still be able to buy stock today on other platforms/brokers.
What other brokers/platforms can I buy on today? (Degiro/Fidelity noted)
I may look at that if the price goes lower.
Drop makes sense - MM dropping price while they buy up stock. No other buy demand - because you can't buy. Then increase price on US NYSE demand. Legalised theft.
^affect status of use.
This was raised last week.
I believe, the outcome (from agencies) was that (if found accurate) notice of the risks would be issued, i.e. updated guidance.
Would not status (authorised) of use.
Hi Helen,
More seriously, glad you found the information.
ATB
Helen, as requested.
https://www.alltrails.com/england/hampshire/southampton
Happy hiking
(Sorry, couldn't resist :-)