Member Info for Pogo001

BigEgo

ADRs rarely reflect the opening level of the ITV share market in the UK the following day. You also need to pay attention to the GBP/USD exchange rate. Yesterday's ADR rise suggested an opening of around 82p, which would have seen ITV share prices up around 1.3%. Tomorrow's session or today's end of the day should be much more interesting as the market should considers the financial implications of today's FINAL court decision and a likely UK interest rate cut of another 25 basis points (80% chance for me) too. I will be not suprised to see an yearly maximum price on ITV shares.

One problem solved. Although it was predictable, a potential defeat would weigh on the ITV share price. And although the UK would probably appeal again, there was a threat of initiating enforcement proceedings in the EU against all defendants. So once again, it is good that the case was finally closed in accordance with the law and not according to the European Union, offended by Brexit. The question now is whether all interested ITV investors read it, because probably not everyone is aware of the amounts of potential penalties for ITV and what repercussions for the share price were caused by both the EU's action against the UK in this case and the earlier judgment. In any case, I expect a stronger than 1-2% increase in the share price when the market consumes this information. Despite the expected resolution, the whole case could also drag on for a long time and weigh on the valuation of ITV. Brussels' desire to interfere in British legislation is still very strong, especially since some British politicians clearly support the EU and would very much like to return to their parliamentary seats in Brussels.

As I predicted a couple weeks ago 50 points. Now we are waiting for 25 in UK, and minimum another 25 in December (as for myself 33% chance that we have one extra in UK in November).

I wrote earlier how this should affect the stock market and why free funds should be directed to dividend companies that guarantee dividend payments for at least 1.5 years. An additional reduction in November depends on the size of inflation generated primarily by the increase in energy prices from October 1. Given that the 50 basis point forecast has come true, I believe that if nothing unexpected happens in the US we will see two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each.

It's good to see that the macroeconomic forecast is coming true, because it bodes well for my predictions on the ITV share market, i.e. a minimum of £1.20-1.50 by the end of 2024 and a price in the range of £2.0-3.0 in 2025 with a good chance of a takeover or merger.

It's look like all my 12k ITV shares bought from 30 August are profitable again (average price 79.5 pence).

Is it surprise for anyone?

I am waiting for divi now with my 362k shares on both accounts which will give me a good profit. I hope that will be able to reinvest it under 90-95 pence.

The cumulative dividend per share since the purchase date, July 17, 2014, is 65.85 pence. This means that the average purchase price (excluding inflation and the time value of money and dividend tax) is 119.15 pence. This is the nominal value. Therefore, as I have already written, the ITV shares sold now by Liberty (depending on the adopted calculations taking into account dividend tax or possibly the average market rate of return) result in a loss in the range of 35-50 pence per share. However, I believe that Liberty Global will not decide to exit the entire investment below the value and nominal purchase amount. And this means a price for ITV shares selling offer at a minimum level of around £2. This is of course dependent on the success of the ITV restructuring strategy conducted by the current management. And according to my assessment, Dame leads ITV to a significant improvement in the efficiency of the company and all economic indicators, causing a real increase in its value. The improvement in external economic indicators should contribute to a sharp increase in revenues and profits generated by all of the ITV sections. This will also probably result in the valuation of ITV shares being more realistic to the market average for this industry with a P/E ratio in the range of 15-25. Then we can also expect that Liberty Global will be willing to get rid of the package of ITV shares held. The market situation gives hope that this will happen by the end of 2025 at the latest, although we are dependent on many external factors here.

It is also important what long-term policy towards the ITV shares stake will be adopted itself by Liberty Global. Assuming the possibility of generating high dividend income by ITV shares, while assuming that the share valuation will remain at an attractive level of £1.5-2 upwards - any calculations assuming the sale of the shares held may turn out to be incorrect. Liberty Global is a large player, with adequate capital and this may probably limit the desire to get rid of ITV shares without an appropriate premium. After all, ITV probably has the worst behind it. The policy of basing the corporation's operations on the international production segment through Studio and streaming, both integrated with traditional media and an extensive advertising market, is bringing results and allows us to look to the future with optimism. It's mean all options are on the table, but what important for small shareholders - ITV price should going up.

Hukster

I felt it over my skin for about 2 weeks. That explains last 2 weeks strange behaviour of ITV shares and possibility that someone knew about and took advantage of it to sprinkle a short splurge from shorts made at about 81 pence and under this price level. Those additional 25-35 million ITV shares for sale in this 2 weeks came from somewhere, as the shorts?? and Liberty Global shares selling. And the fact that Liberty Global would either sell some shares on the market or in a block was likely, because it was rather known that they did not want to be forced to announce a tender offer for ITV shares after exceeding the threshold of shares in the company's capital due to a decrease in the number of shares in circulation. Only that nothing was still visible in the RNS news and I was little confused. In any case, this clarifies the matter and means that as the buyback progresses, there may be another selling of about 15 million ITV shares from Liberty Global. Forecasting a buyback at the level of 7-8% of ITV's share capital, one must assume that they will be willing (they need to do) to get rid of (at a price lower than the average purchase price + dividend) 25-32 million ITV shares. I don't expect more, because this price probably means a loss of around 35-50 pence per share sold (unless they themselves were shorting ITV shares at the time to limit their losses). Thanks a lot for this news.

I rarely say this because ITV's share price follows its own path.... But for the past 2 weeks something has been stinking here. And I hope that I'm wrong.

Tomorrow Friday the 13th...

BigEgo

I fully agree with you.

It's hard to be patient, but not first time on ITV shares.

Unfortunately, on ITV shares we have once again a situation where 500-800k shares circulating on daily turnover systematically reduce the price of these shares using negative market trends. Someone is clearly driving down the share price here, probably by selling shares and then buying them back at an increasingly lower price limit and repeating this operation the next day. As in the past, the general low demand for shares and the low interest of individual investors allow this at a relatively low cost. The question may be whether this is the policy of shorts or investors accumulating shares? Regardless, it causes the share price to fall today, but in the future it clears the ITV share market of "hot hands". And this is a good solution for long-term investors, despite the "paper" losses incurred today. A repeat of the last year game , although this time as you see used by other players to buy and accumulate shares of the company (buyback bought about 3 million shares in 2-days). I wonder if the already close resistance level that I see will prove itself once again. For now it hurts but I bought again today a modest 2k shares of ITV. 362k ITV shares in my pocket.

A herd of sheep trying to influence the ITV share price with their discussion. Without knowledge, ability and what is much more important.. without capital. Millionaires in dreams but just trolls in the morning sun.

Winstanley

Listening to Tomalley is like listening to the same old record over and over again and same complaining about the Dame. Trolls are just stupid trolls. If they aren't trolls then what have they been doing on this forum for at least 2 years trying to discourage everyone from investing in ITV shares.??!!!!

I bought another 5k shares. That's 360k ITV shares in my pocket total. Now let the trolls count how much I'll lose this week.

Winstanley . Thanks again for all the comments and links.

Greetings to all the real individual ITV investors. Patience....

Being an idiot usually doesn't hurt the idiot. It is only little annoying for the rest of the observers around him. I recommend using filters. A Russian troll will always remain just a Russian muppet's and troll.

Patience, knowledge and experience are the base of investing in the stock market. So real ITV investors, don't be fooled and do what your mind and experience dictate.

And remember that freedom in Ukraine is also freedom for all of Europe and the UK. Without it, your investments, your future, the future of your loved ones and what you love or value - all of this is really worthless and can be lost at any moment. Many Britons are fighting also for your freedom in Ukraine. They are fighting and dying. Pay tribute to the fallen, killed by Putin's occupants. And think for a moment why they are giving their lives in a foreign country.

Glory to Ukraine. Guys from the International Legion, hold on, we are together.

And today someone was playing their game on ITV shares again. And finally we have a volume of over 22 million shares in turnover. So the fun is still going on. The month is coming to an end. Losses must be booked on some accounts, and space must be prepared for upcoming profits on others. And this situation will last until the daily turnover exceeds the standard volume of 15 million shares. Then manipulating the share price in order to create appropriate price levels will be more difficult. I encourage anyone who is bored with this to leave this forum and their adventure with ITV shares. I bought another 5k on average at 80.05. Expensive? It doesn't hurt me. 355k ITV shares is a good number.

Winstanley

There is really no point in arguing with trolls. This group has been writing the same thing for over two years, trying to make money on the fall in the value of ITV shares. Only since January they haven't been very successful. And instead of profits, losses appear (if of course they still have some capital). Somehow it is hard for them to accept that the market and ITV itself have changed over the last 5 years. That the company's restructuring policy is bringing results. They are also bragging about a dividend of £0.10 pence paid from February 2022 (i.e. from the fall from £1.2). And now they are additionally scaring us with upcoming tax changes. From my point of view, these changes are necessary, were expected and will not be a surprise. I prefer such a scenario than even greater debt and finally an explosion that would destroy the economy. It will hurt me too. I will survive and try to earn even more on stupid fear intensified by morons and Russian muppets.

Discussing with trolls or people without basic economic knowledge and money is pointless. I have presented my forecasts many times. When I want to check if I was right, I look at this year's results of my portfolio or just new investments. You think you able to make more money, no prob.

60% that 85p next week

But it's only my private opinion and prediction.

Winstanley

BigEgo

Thanks for your sharing.

Sorry. Should be :

... and £2-3 at the end of 2025.

BigEgo

I fully agree with you. I have come to the conclusion myself that entering into a polemic with a bunch of idiots and trolls which trying to influence the emotions of short players, or generally discussion with people without knowledge and money and only with the ambition to become millionaires within a week - makes no sense. I have previously presented my arguments for owning ITV shares, sitting on your a**ss (without betting on the local changes in the share price) and accumulating shares as free funds flow in without thinking much about the level of the ITV share price at the moment. All because the upward trend in these shares is not realistically yet in the middle of its cycle, and the macroeconomic environment clearly indicates where the market will go. It is not that I do not see threats. But I assess the situation realistically. And I observing threats which I have identified for myself. Based on the scale of my 30 years of experience investment on the capital markets that most of those present here could only dream of, I know that most of my assessments were correct. I also know that if I have lost money investing in the stock market, it was when I was greedy and wanted to beat the market and I wasn't patient. So I am patient now. And I am much more older ... and I will let the idiots talk. There are fewer and fewer people who listen and follow their advice. Just like the capital they have, the money these people lost irretrievably. I am not the BEST. I also make mistakes and give in to emotions. But I think I'm controlling it quite well and as long as I'm making above-average profits in the long run, I think it's not bad. As I said before and I think: by the end of the year, UK interest rates should down another 0.5% and the US 0.75% (I also accept the assumption that if not, then should be 0.75% / 1% up to March 2025 - without any black swan on the global economy). ITV in the range of £1.2-1.50 (with an indication of +£1.3) at the end of 2024 and £1.5-3 at the end of 2025.

Reading the posts on this forum is becoming more and more of a pain. The prevailing lack of understanding of the stock market and its functioning, or the economy as a whole, is also embarrassing. In reality, only a few people have knowledge in this area, clearly define their views, are able to express their fears or hopes regarding the level of the ITV section price - not being only emotionally or financially connected to some vision. And in reality, only a small group consider themselves equal (i.e. stupider) than the big guys of this market, investing millions of pounds in ITV shares or issuing specific recommendations based on reality and not someone's prayers. No offense, but this is the image of this discussion group. And not only this one, by the way. Polemics with trolls or people who treat the stock market as a casino make no sense to me. In addition, I am far from judging someone's work for ITV with the boorish and brainless understanding and arguments of a Russian troll or the like. I believe that the best assessment in the case of a joint-stock company is given by the stock market itself and its largest shareholders, who can at any time make a forced correction of the entire Management Board. As for me, as I have already said, I am not interested in fighting the clearly trend defined by me on the ITV shares stock market or earning tips for another coffee or lunch to spend at McDonald's. I will leave that to the trolls and those playing roulette here and not using their own or someone else's knowledge and experience. Let the numbers speak for me and above all the increase in the value of my investment portfolio based on ITV shares. Let me remind you that it is currently 350k ITV shares, with the last purchases at a price of 79.93 pence. This is a good basis for another dividend this year.  As I said - at the end of the year we will see how much my forecasts regarding the value of ITV shares in the range of at least £1.2 to £1.5 have come true. Similarly, those regarding the entire market or further interest rate cuts in the UK and the US along with their full scale. And for now I remain on the sidelines reading the stupid statements of some opponents or trolls without money, for whom this group is probably the only entertainment.