Member Info for Pogo001

AK47

I don't take short positions. That's my rule.

As someone once said, the potential bottom is always known, and it's £0. But the ceiling isn't as high as people sometimes think and doesn't reach the clouds.

AK57

I'm talking about the book value of shares and the resulting implications (including potential repercussions) for shareholders. This is also known as the potential liquidation value in the event of a business closure, after all other liabilities have been satisfied. Because the shareholder is the last link in the food chain. If you don't understand this, that's not my problem.

When I thing about Wizzair shares, I love that:

"the total number of Ordinary Shares in issue is 103,417,373; and it has one class of shares in issue, being ordinary shares of £0.0001 each"

Is it just over £10k, or my math is full of s**.

And from my point of view, instytutional investors too. 😂😂😂😂

The first strong support for today's declines is 1013-1017. Then we have the psychological barrier of 1000 pence. I think that despite the possibility of a rebound up to 1040-1050 pence, realistically and in an optimistic scenario, we'll see consolidation combined with a slow decline before the quarterly results are announced on November 13th. A more likely scenario is that we'll test this year's low around 970 pence before November 13th. After the results, without any real changes in the revenue structure or profits generated from operations rather than subsidies, we'll see a much more dynamic decline. Contrary to appearances, big slide will make the greater chance of consolidation and a calming of sentiment (800-900). This is especially true given that the poor results will also be followed by brokers' assessments. If sentiment is to improve, it won't happen overnight. It takes time and at least two quarters showing positive changes. So from my point of view, Wizzair will be the king of declines and speculations at least until the second half of the second quarter of 2026.

Unfortunately, the expected scale of the decline is not an incentive either to buy at the current level of 1030-1050 or to maintain open positions in Wizzair shares.

I like hearing recommendation of patience from someone with an assumed share price decline to 970. Just note that we're talking about another 6% 😀 Furthermore, it's sometimes worth revisiting their previous opinions.... ha ha. From my perspective, based on my own predictions, I don't believe this price level is the lower limit of the share price decline. Until institutional investors believe they have influence over management's actions (a new share issue??), until they see this in numbers that follow a specific pattern over time (and not with every quarterly result being merely a prediction), the fate of small investors doesn't look promising.

Painful 😎😂😎

I don't think so..

It will be painful 13th November.

All the best for all shamans from this forum.

The current behavior of stock prices, with their deep declines, accurately reflects the opinion of large investors and institutions. It is different and directly opposite to the opinion of the shamans presented on this forum. One thing we can wish for is a thorough assessment of the status of your investment portfolio. It's too late for a wake-up call.

Rumors will always be rumors. By the time they become true, it's usually too late to make a decision. So, it's time to wait until Thursday, and for some, until November 25th.

BigEgo

Nothing prevents a takeover from involving only the executive 51% stake in ITV shares (and, moreover, in such a way that the sellers guarantee themselves an increase in the sale price if the ITV share price increases), providing a decisive advantage in making certain decision. A rapid division of the company combined with the introduction of its components to trading on the LSE, with a combined share valuation close to fair value (i.e., £1.8-2.8, depending on valuations), would satisfy all shareholders and provide a fair profit for the holder of 51% of the parent company's shares. Removing Liberty Global from the group of the largest shareholders, along with financial and personnel matters also, in my opinion, removes obstacles to such a move. The above is one of the rumors I heard a few months ago, when a discussion raged among several friends (some maybe more informed than others), who were able to connect the dots, regarding the valuation of ITV shares. Most of these assessments focused on the stake held by LG and the related repercussions. We all had a same meaning about safety future ITV as a business. Of course, these are just speculations by a few investors, which may not be true and should not influence anyone else's judgment on the issue.

Both articles confirm, above all, the sheer delusion of the forecasts for increasing the aviation sector's transport capacity, and consequently, the level of revenue generated. At the same time, cost reduction is becoming virtually impossible. Furthermore, governments (not just in the UK) are increasingly pressuring themselves to increase tax revenues, officially linked to environmental protection – indirectly resulting from budgetary needs. Based on this, it's hardly surprising that financial brokers reward large, strong, and financially sound airlines with large and efficient fleets. But the local on this forum shamans continue to cheat fate. But you can't cheat the facts. The over 70% decline in the real value of Wizzair shares over 10 years shows this exactly.

Yes. You are always are able to find the better and easier ways to invest your capital. It's just strange that we usually find out about this after some time, after it's happened. I also suggest investing more than a sum from few months' wage and seeing what the entry-exit scale looks like when your demand or supply side sometimes accounts for 30% of your entire daily turnover. The trolls here should be well aware of this, when they ask all of there to buy THG, STV, or similar companies - where the issue is when we invest or we have share's valuation of shares around £1,000 or over. Finally, before summarizing the investment's effectiveness, let's wait first for its settlement, and then for its percentage impact on the value of the entire portfolio. In my case, the boundary conditions were around five years (February 2027) and an expected share value of £2.20-3.00, plus dividends. That doesn't mean, however, that if I sell my shares earlier, I won't present my calculations here.

Robs60

I've also heard some interesting rumors, and contrary to appearances, each one makes sense. Moreover, knowing Malone, his retirement doesn't mean he intends to leave this "game board" without affecting the rest of the game. He's shown this repeatedly, and age, contrary to what some people think, doesn't mean someone throws their entire past life away or into the trash. Therefore, I'm simply waiting for the results of the move he made, and I won't change my mind that it ends the whole game. Most people here underestimate the human factor, someone's aspirations, or approach to business. And in this case, that applies to both Malone and Dame McCall. I'm also waiting with some composure for the quarterly results, as well as the full-year results, which, unless something extraordinary happens in the world of politics (something that would have a real impact on the economy), should be same or probably better than the predictions from March 2025. From this perspective, I look at the Trump-China relationship, where both sides have shown their teeth and are now starting to consider their losses and their consequences for their own economies and politically (contrary to appearances, this also applies to China, where not everything is as controlled as the Communist Party would like). Regarding the situation in the new fiscal year, considering the projected growth dynamics of the advertising market and sporting events, of which ITV will be the financial beneficiary, I am confident about my investment and at least about the payment of the next three dividends, including the next on 25th November. Life has taught me to evaluate profits or losses only after closing a position. Life has also taught me not to become attached to money if it's just a dead letter. I've been investing on and off for 30 years. When I decided to return to the market a few years ago, I decided to do it in the style that has always brought me profits. So I'm not looking at history; I'm just implementing what I intended—monitoring only the financial situation of the company in which I've invested my time, knowledge, and capital. This doesn't mean I like ITV's current valuation. I'm simply taking advantage of the situation, just as I have for the past three years, increasing my holdings of ITV shares more and at a lower price than I expected. This is possible thanks to the City and its approach, and also thanks to people like Malone. Because they caused small investors to practically sell off their shares, and ITV itself was practically forgotten by the market. However, if anyone thinks this is the full picture, just look at the shareholder structure. For small speculators, quick profits are what counts; those who invested heavily in ITV don't have to rush. When the time comes, they'll earn enough, and in the meantime, they're simply posting dividends.

B777CAPTAIN

The market, by its very nature, "reads" indicators and looks at numbers. Therefore, any attempt to obscure the truth and search for reasons for failure in what ultimately isn't important from the capital market's perspective is pointless. I understand that, as the chief shaman on this forum, you're trying to overwhelm everyone with your spells. However, there's only one truth, regardless of how you force its interpretation on fools. Therefore, the only thing shamans like you and others on this forum like you can do here, is try to hide logical posts by bombarding them with your own. Those who think will always find the answer. There is nothing personal in what I write. This is only a statement of facts, clearly and legibly verified by the market and the valuation of Wizzair shares.

Every shaman on this forum can write whatever he wants. He can predict and dream of 1,500 pence per Wizzair share at the end of 2025, or 5,000 pence in two or three years. However, the mathematics based on historical prices is very painful for Wizzair. Evaluating its business operations is also a failure. And not only considering IAG, but especially when we're talking about a direct competitor to this low-cost airline, let's compare Ryanair. Over the past 10 years, it has generated a 400% return on capital, and the scale of its business growth over the same period has been several times greater than Wizzair's. I suggest comparing the scale of turnover growth, the scale of its operations, its technical base, and its transport network. So let the shamans continue to conjure reality. From my point of view we need to read digits.

Ups..

"raising no concerns or concerns"

should be "raising no concerns or objections"

B777CAPTAIN

But IAG, after 10 years (since 2115), is back to its price peaks, having paid out over 120 pence in dividends per share in the meantime. Furthermore, its current financial situation and future are very good, raising no concerns or concerns. And that's how the market and brokers assess them. As a reminder, Wizzair shares cost 1,895 pence on 28 th. October 2015, and after 10 years, they're at 1,050 pence and the company did not pay a penny of dividends. Furthermore, the market is full of gloomy forecasts, even hints of a takeover, a split, or even bankruptcy. So, even from a long-term investment perspective, this company is a complete failure (in absolute terms, this 10-year investment, taking inflation into account only, resulted in capital losses of around 70%). Congratulations on your successful investment and your wise advice. Something nominally cheap doesn't necessarily mean it has any real value.

Conjuring reality. I suggest hiring a licensed shaman. Nothing happens without a reason. That's why Wizz Air's current share price is 1,150 pence, not 3,000 pence. Furthermore, I always say: for the share price to rise, you need buying them all the time, not just pray. Another logical solution is to stick to your own judgment and simply observe the market, without considering temporary fluctuations. However, the result of such an approach can be very financially painful. I therefore remind all shamans on this forum that their spells will be revised on Tuesday by the share price valuation after the results are announced, not by fortune-telling from coffee grounds.

BigEgo

Thanks.

The conclusions are obvious. The Bank of England's decision is also on Thursday. A dividend yield of over 7% per annum, with interest rates expected to fall to a maximum range of 3.50-3.25%, looks encouraging. Of course, trolls still believe in 50 pence... I'm personally waiting for clarification on whose portfolio the 190 million Liberty Global shares ended up and how they're connected to Malone. And at the end of the month, the dividend. On the one hand, 69 pence for ITV shares hurts, as it's close to my average purchase price, but on the other, I don't mind having the opportunity to reinvest my divi at such a low price on November 26th.

Polishcap

It's not dominance that matters, but revenue structure and profit levels. The largest fixed costs are generated by fuel prices denominated in USD, which analysts predict will remain strong and trend upward for at least six months with strong USD. Added to this are rising airport service costs – Ryanair is quickly reacting by changing its route network, while Wizzair, with less room to maneuver, mostly agrees to incur higher costs, teetering on the brink of profitability. Added to this are constantly rising wage costs and, in Wizzair's case, political pressure, which its competitors have no problem with. The British market, which generates solid revenues and profits, has been practically abandoned over the past few years by Wizzair, which has significantly reduced its route network (far more than simple math would suggest based on the number of aircraft at its disposal). Despite criticism of Brexit, Ryanair has been much more sensible in this regard. Just compare its route networks from before COVID-19 and now. Wizzair's entire policy focused on the Middle East and new markets (intended to ensure limited competition compared to Europe, where Wizzair is clearly struggling) proved a failure, a source of losses that will indirectly impact its results for a long time to come. And it's not that my opinion stems from me being annoyed that there are no year-round connections from Glasgow or Edinburgh to Warsaw like there were years ago. However, Warsaw, and indirectly Modlin, the main hubs in central Poland without connections to Scotland, are a direct path for low-cost airlines (and Wizzair, which declares this fact) to lose tens of thousands of customers who, in this case, choose Ryanair or EasyJet and London as their first destination, out of necessity. Consequently, they choose mostly the same carriers for their subsequent connecting flights. Ryanair's actions, explained as a focus primarily on Modlin and costs negotiations, ultimately resulted in a favorable outcome for the carrier. Wizzair, increasingly perceived as less attractive by travelers, is once again left in the lurch. What is also significant here is fast view on decision and understanding of the cancellation of a large part of orders for new aircraft. It is of course financially beneficial and obvious in the short term, but shows the scale of the predicted collapse when we compare the capabilities of these carriers in 2030. From my point of view: good luck with your new investment.