The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I live on her street next door to you lol.
You would know I suspect.
Performance has been poor but it is all set now, the foundations are in place for lots of news to come. It is a bit like selling a house which is half built, It has no value but when built it is often worth good money. I think we are at the stage where value will now come.
Porky, you have a chance to make money rather than spending your entire life deramping. You can use the profit to invest in a premium membership on Match.com. Think about it.
Assume 201 fails then but personally I think it will get signed as still ongoing. Update on CLX and potential value can move this 200% from here, Lab contracts they seem confident it will come soon, 301 update, 401 should complete. Potential buying at such a low without much news is also a strong chance.
Don't forget outcomes to evaluations as well. If 201 gets signed even a few months later what happens to the SP then.
Nothing is risk free but the odds are good at such a low price. Worth a punt imo.
It all comes down to agenda. The problem is that if the interests of the current BOD are not aligned entirely with us then nothing happens. Not really about being a rubbish CEO but more about what they want out of it. If you don't care much about the share price it will not go up much.
We need a shareholder on the board but not one that will get out with cheap options. Needs to be a genuine effort.
I think they will deliver significant revenue in the coming months so yes I think they can raise. In an ideal world you would want a new team but then it will take time, more dilutions, more mistakes if a lack of experience and where would the placing be then.
Both solutions are not great. I just think that a mixture of both is better and see how they get on. You need experience in the field and you need the right interests to get the share price moving.
I would keep Suzy and Kevin until June and bring 1/2 shareholders not more plus one other industry expert so maybe the SAR guy that was suggested.
You need to have people that can strike a deal in this field and that understand what it takes and understand the process.
I don't support the proposed changes, It makes no sense to me if you are invested. How can you replace industry experience with 3 individuals that have limited experience.
At the same time a combination of both would be better. We do need a shareholder on the board. They are depending on Suzy but not sure how that will work because if Suzy then gets removed or resigns then we are buggered as no real experience on the board.
Porky you spent the entire year last time saying 1p placing or no support. Not only was it much higher than your prediction it was far more cash than you predicted. In fact you got proven wrong.
You moved from July, August, September, October, November and then you were right.
You are again starting in July and will keep saying the same until maybe the middle of 2025/2026 if a deal comes through before then. Then you will say you were right lol.
You might as well just buy since you clearly see potential. At this rate you will be buying Valirx when you are 95.
Higher cash burn due to purchase of assets but now that is done cash burn reduces. Simple to understand.
Revenue will come in reducing that further. I am sure they will be managing cash but also if 201 is signed before then that is another 2 million or another deal such as CLX.
They could also get grant payments, R and D refunds etc. It all depends.
Official information below and not Porky's nonsense.
Cash runway now appears sufficient to carry it well into 2025
Full year 2023E Group net losses along with the cost of establishing/facilitating Inaphaea Biolabs (including the
acquisition of Imagen Therapeutics), resulted in an average estimated cash burn of a little over £200,000/month for
the period. If one now prudently assumes further, albeit somewhat reduced, Group net losses for 2024E, during
which time it utilises the newly raised net funding to accelerate exploitation and integration of its acquired BioBank
materials in tandem with commercial development/brand establishment within Inaphaea while also advancing
its preclinical product pipeline in the absence of further cash acquisition(s), the Group now appears to have runway
sufficient to carry it into Q2 2025.
Between now and then, of course, various upside scenarios suggest this period could become significantly extended.
This could be derived through securing higher volumes of fee-paying service customers for Inaphaea, potential
signing of licensing agreements with external parties willing to pay upfront charges and fund ongoing
development of the Group’s preclinical and/or clinical assets which, in turn, could also attract continuing
milestones instalments. Any such outcome could be both transformative for ValiRx’s balance sheet while also
proving its business model.
Porky,
This is not what life is about. If you want to buy then buy. Spending year after year after year doing the same thing and achieving nothing is pointless.
You need to put your talent in writing a book or something. Maybe write about AIM stocks but not here. Use time wisely.
I think Adam once said C4XD had a deal which was at an even earlier stage than CLX is now and got decent payments and milestones. Not really looked into that one much. I have looked at other examples myself though in the past and know nothing goes from zero to 100 million upfront and preclinical deals are worth good money. The science and potential holds value.
True but he backed it with his money. Others just post but don't back it.
You have to look at a collection of things, costs to find a needle in a haystack (impossible), science, early efficiency and safety results, costs to get to this stage and potential to get a very large preclinical deal. 10-20 million upfront payment at the moment for CLX would be fair and makes sense.
In terms of money the share price would be irrelevant if you're talking after dilution so for example if you are staying at 1p after dilution then a bid at 3p might be the same value as say 7p now. It makes no difference to them as it just means they would still be bidding for the same amount in money terms but a lower share price.
You are assuming zero good news from now until the start of 2025. This can flip 200/300% comfortably by then but yes it all depends on Suzy. Nothing really priced in.
Also CLX can be sold at any point. Yes in 1/2 years but by then you would be looking at 100 million upfront payment plus milestones but nothing stopping them taking 10 million now plus 500 milestone payments. In take over terms it has value which you admitted yourself irrespective of timings.
I am serious. Nick values the products not the management so a takeover kind of bypasses the management part.
CLX001 had excellent in vitro and in vivo tests and passed a few safety tests along with excellent science it has value for any buyer. Adam was saying 10/20 million upfront for that alone and he would know more than any of us.
It makes sense to keep the team and keep the strategy maybe make Valirx a subsidiary of some kind. It is the most likely outcome given where we are.
TRX were helping with 301 patents and 201 they want.
As I said it all depends on finances. I personally think TRX has raised the money already so it has to be an option but hopefully not less than 15p.
They might try it with desperate shareholders and the current situation. I think they are more likely to succeed at the 15-20p range. 10p would be a 5050 bet if people accept in my view. The constant delays cost the company so 15-20p or more would be ok given our current SP.
We are 3p and worth multiples so take over would also factor in the current SP as well as what they all think is a fair offer. They may try a cheap one given the situation. 15p recent highs but before dilution points to 10-12p range but hopefully a bit more.
That is what happens if you don't add value so if the BOD thinks CLX is worth good money now then they need to price it in somehow.
The revenue only helps cash flow but what matters is the value of your assets. CLX can bring them maybe 50/100 million upfront payments in a year or two given the novel science so at this stage they will know it is a risk taking. Plus they can reformulate 301 I think they have been helping with that so that adds value and 201 same plans and they save money.
New projects have made headlines in terms of potential cures in various articles so again they get that to preclinical it brings massive value. 10/15 million is the minimum offer which is very low. If we are lucky a 15/20p bid is very possible.
Agree and I would be at a loss but look where we are. Without 201 we would sink lower so we are kind of stuck. We all know we are worth multiples of where we are but that cannot stop a lower placing and a destruction of share price in the future.
I would be happy with 15p and walk given the situation, 10p I would make a loss but just what I think might happen. It gives EUDA value as well with everything they get. It will come down to how that is all implemented but surely more likely than a signed 201 deal now in my opinion as circumstances have changed.
It gives Suzy and Kevin a way out of this mess plus if TRX don't want to complete 201 unless they get a takeover then it means a lower price for us if no takeover or a takeover for 10p plus. Maybe that is what is going on who knows but just makes sense from a business point of view.
I am sure TRX has backing but mergers and takeovers take time. It has not failed so maybe a takeover is what they are looking at.
Surely they must be tempted to put in a takeover bid at this crazy price for maybe 10p. It all depends who is backing TRX and how much money they have.
They would get CLX and all the new compounds in evaluation which they can sell during the preclinical stage that would more than cover the bid price and much more. Then 201 would be free for them and potentially save on the 65 million milestone payment plus royalties to Valirx plus 2 million and also fees that they owe. Throw in a potential 401 deal worth 15 million as well needing only one clinical trial. They can sell some of the assets as well and get a return.
Who knows they may then employ Suzy and Kevin on the side to develop the new compounds.
You are a few years behind Porky. That was the reason why TRX were picked and you only just noticed lol. The deal gets signed VAL gets paid. The reformulation will be done in the lab prior to the signature.
EUDA seems to think the merger is still likely. LOI is still in place so it is on until they say so.