The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
With the potential milestones but not upfront. I have posted an article in the past not going to bother digging it up now.
Still you can get some very large upfront payments at pre clinical level.
It is more valuable for the shareholders given clinical trials cost so much. Otherwise Valirx would be burning 10,20,30,40 50 million a year not less than 2 million.
Why do you care? You say you have no intention to invest or have not done so in the past just that you refused a chance in the past.
The strategy is not to do clinical trials. It is to get deals for preclinical compounds so no peer reviews needed. Clinical trials are what causes huge dilutions and consolidations due to costs and the largest deals tend to be at preclinical level.
You keep mentioning the same thing about 201 all that matters is the funding for phase 2b trials, payments and agreed milestones. The rest can happen after larger trials. That is for others to worry about who are paying for it the next stages.
At least they are trying to get some decent contracts. We just need the outcomes to come.
It is fully operational so it can only get better from here. Pre clinical projects are expensive so hopefully decent revenue will come soon plus 201 or CLX news to get this moving.
Your asking the wrong people here as you will get a response from those not invested.
DYOR. It don't take much to rise from this market cap in fact a good buy as cash is forecasted until Q2 2024.
They would know nothing is factored in at this price. All the below would be very significant relative to our current price.
1) Outcomes of evaluation projects leading to SPV if successful
2) 201 deal conclusion
3) Several lab contracts
4) CLX update
5) 401 deal conclusion
We will get news on this positive or negative but most of this should be positive. They can see the potential from this low price.
@PORKY
Rinse and repeat and you think the new BOD will somehow not want wages and will deliver and will not need further funding. It will be just like when Suzy started 4 years back and will need more money due to a shift in direction.
We need to build on what we have. If 201 gets signed It should add about 20 million to our market cap. As it stands the EUDA market cap suggests the merger is more likely to be successful than not.
They could easily deliver a number of lab contracts, the company is at a stage where they can deliver in many different areas.
The issue is just that we don't know and they are not in a rush. Therefore the simple solution is to get a shareholder on the board and see what happens with 201 if it fails or no news in the next few weeks then we make more changes.
Plenty of potential but just a lack of clarity, care and direction in terms of the share price.
I tend to find 90% of the people posting here are not invested or have a very minimal amount compared to what they can buy. This suggests if they get a right this will move big.
That was mainly under the old BOD and to be fair everyone knows you cannot raise any money with a market cap of less than a million so that was inevitable.
The best way to start is to appoint a shareholder on the BOD for Stella and then work from that point.
We don't need two unqualified people at the same time. I agree we don't need another scientist we need the share price and performance to increase.
They hired lab staff, Andrew and the ex Imogen CEO plus held expensive events and they had time. We need a person inside to build trust ideally Adam.
She must genuinely believe 201 will be signed soon otherwise why hang on if shareholders then boot you out. No doubt they must have some positive news on the lab side or several pieces of news.
I also think 201 will get signed and the company will turn but who knows. We will find out soon I suspect.
The next CLX news is due soon according to the broker report.
Why not try and get an offer. Lots of talks of 10/20 million at least for upfront payment plus milestones. Further news will likely increase that value more. Even if they get offered 5 million upfront plus milestones it would triple us here.
Not a problem to reject the offer but surely a good way to increase the SP and give it value.
All you hear is problems but never solutions that will increase the SP.
How the hell are we going to find a CEO that understands biotechs and the AIM market that wants existing holders to do well and will buy big as soon as they join. No point hiring a CEO that will have no idea how to write an RNS that builds momentum.
If we had real solutions then maybe some of us would support but it is all a bit of a fantasy.
Nobody knows what is happening with the merger but at least the LOI with EUDA is still in place and must be progressing. If that happens then it all flips big and this could be a 5-10 bag in the next 12 months.
Dumping the CEO although it can be justified will cause a drop and then puts 201 at risk and wastes time with notice periods. For genuine holders the wait and see approach for a while longer is the best solution here as we are only 4p. If it happens we rise big if not then depending on other news we will stay where we are or drift a bit then maybe change.
Also an update on CLX leading to a possible early deal at this market cap can more than double us at this price and that would be very significant news.
But his favourite stock did have something that can be pumped HE1 but Porky refused to participate in the ramp. Can he explain why? I suspect even with a new BOD Porky would not participate here either.
To effectively "Ramp" something there needs to be some substance behind it or at least a good story that "punters" will buy into. As it stands with VAL there is nothing to get excited about.
Increase the price to 15p and If I got that then I would accept even though I know we are worth more and have more potential.
I remember once we were talking about refusing an 80p offer so 15p should be a minimum.
Porky9 Premium Member
Posted in: VAL
Posts: 6,765
Price: 52.25
Strong Buy
Valuation Re-Rate2 Nov 2021 00:40
What we are seeing is a rerate of the company
We have been materially undervalued for so long that many have just got used to it but it’s as clear as day to see when you compare us to our peers.
My stance remains at 74p to 85p pre licensing as continually stated. 80p being £52m mcap bang on the peer group average and significantly higher after deals.
Let’s explore this further based on deals.
Currently we can’t know what Valirx are negotiating behind the scenes or their success in negotiations. We can only speculate. What we do know is that taking curved balls out of the equation, both 201 and 301 are packaged ready to go and so is possibly 401 as its a reformulated generic drug with a much shorter route to market. So potentially three horses in the stable ready to run.
From my own independent research and please do your own, the Prostate cancer drugs market last year, where 201 is positioned, was worth $11.2bn USD and growing
Meanwhile, the Endometriosis drugs market where 301 is positioned, is worth just short of a $2bn USD market size with expected growth to $2.2bn by 2027
The pancreatic cancer drugs market last year, where 401 is positioned, was worth $2.6bn last year and expected to rise to almost $3.8 by 2027 So we are talking big numbers here.
Our mcap tonight at 53p is still a mere £ 34m, I want to post that again because some are just not getting it, we are valued at £ 34m – This is not just materially undervalued, it is plain farcical.
Now we have explored from our peer group Sareum at £ 223m mcap and I believe we are potentially stronger and can overtake this Biotech. Mentioned a couple of days back was also RedX Pharma from our peer group, which spookily is also valued at £ 223m mcap.
RedX secured a back loaded $200m licensing deal on milestones including tiered royalties in mid-single digit percentages, based on any future net sales. The upfront was $10m payment. On the day of the announcement the deal boosted their mcap value, marked up immediately by £ 30m and over the following 7 days the SP rallied by a further £ 100m value.
Now I’m not saying Valirx will do the same, all deals are different and have their merits but come on.
We have potentially THREE deals here to be done not just one. I could be totally wrong in my calculation but If I were a betting man, I would say 201 alone could be worth £200m and £10m down like the RedX deal. As such our market cap should run towards same, if it did, we would be looking at a circa £ 160m mcap value or £ 2.46 share price NOT a 54p one with the other deals still to come.
Uncannily, that’s slightly over OB’s target.
The market currently wants to see proof of deals. I believe we will see that shortly and when we do, we will see that step change in the share price and further rally, in the meantime the MM
Me desperate or you who appears on our board when not invested almost everyday.
Think why would people come here if they do not see potential. Where did that potential therefore come from? Foolish if you ask me. It just needs execution as the foundations are actually in place and this will fly.
The way to improve this is to have one person with commercial skills on the board as Stella is already leaving. The rest we can wait and see how it goes.
From the RNS
The requisitioning shareholders have been informed and shareholders are advised to take no action at this time.
They clearly seem confident in you read the wording. People need to wake up especially holders. A bit of time does no harm at the moment. The alternative solutions will not be good for the share price. Delivery expected soon.
Or alternatively are you saying we will not drop if they are removed and dilution will be much higher than where we are.
Who exactly are you replacing them with and what AIM experience? They will have another agenda and that will not be to take the share price up and even if that was the case they will have no idea about the other work. The only person that fits the correct profile is Adam that I know.
You could also see others leaving so that is another issue. We have not had an update on CLX and 201 just seems pointless at the moment.
I don't think you understand it well enough.
People complain about no revenue but you want to ditch the lab. The evaluations will cost more and you cannot do additional work on it to increase the value or chances of success.
The company balance sheet which needs revenue to attract investment needs revenue and not just a deal unless you get huge payments.
I agree no more buy and build until a much higher share price. But we are at a stage where things will kick in. You will lose contacts that they would have built and slow things down. Believe me when I say you will get capitulated with dilutions with a new BOD.
It is pure fantasy to expect someone to walk in and buy 5% of the company. They need lots of time and money.