RE: Garbage in garbage squared, out6 Mar 2021 09:40
You’ll have more chance on a weekend, the trolls don’t get paid overtime. I also don’t post much on here as it’s just idiots bickering... it’ll go up, no it won’t, it’ll go down, it’s a 20 bagger, no, it’s going to a penny. Repeat ad infinitum.
At the moment it’s difficult to assess. They’re still ramping up their own capacity and in the process of adding additional outsourced capacity. Given the USP, you would hope that they’ll be able to sell everything they produce but it might take time to get there. Let’s say in a couple of months they’re at a run rate of 5m a month. If that includes outsourcing then margins will fall but I think 20% would be on the low side as an average. So, 7 months at 5m, £35m sales, say 30% margin, £10.5 net. That would imply a PE less than 4 and wouldn’t include the cash or attribute any value to the rest of the business or any future ideas.
I think the above could be very conservative. It’s not difficult to imagine decent demand for a biodegradable mask that offers many hours of full protection with a global market to go for. Applying a PE of 10 gets to over £100m (5p), adding capacity above 5m per month increases that mcap further. My view is that the share price is very low given the huge opportunity, 5p is fair, but that’s because currently there’s not much trust in them delivering. It’s now a new BoD so I think it’s definitely worth giving them a chance to prove themselves. So far, I think their comms have been good, they’ve been honest about the issues and clear regarding addressing them. Time will tell...