Member Info for Pk73

@johnlewis if this carries on you may have to bring back the daily market updates!

Hope for a bit of an update on MB’s movements soon..

GLA pk.

Hey @deck, its totally irrelevant how many shares a company has, as this is just how many fractions a company value is split into.

To simplify (yes there are other factors at work), a company is worth at any one point the number of shares x the sp. That final value being the one to compare...

This should (but being AIM rarely does) tie in with any debt, asset value, cash in the bank and risk factor. Being AIM you can probs add manipulation to that list.

Breakout of manipulation only happens when the other factors are strong enough not to be ignored... in mining this is generally at a JORC, DFS or spades in ground stage (plus JV etc). ... or in PAT's case when people can put a risk/reward value on the bhukia situation. Allenby suggest 90% discount on the claim...

So if the prof is right the company value should be going up shortly to 200m for bhukia plus whatever for the african assets if we get a JORC figure out for any of those.... i'm totally with the Prof's assessment.

GLA for big changes before year end.

PK

With the RSI suggesting this is bordering oversold, just consider the fact (no ramp, no deramp) that we have been through a long DD and secured 13.7m in legal funding. At some point in the next few weeks, MB is going to RNS the start of the proceedings against the GOR and signal the amount we are looking at.

Allenby suggest this will resettle the sp at around 90% discount from the proposed award, and this is based on precedent with other companies who have gone through the process.

Say we are going for anything between 500m and 2bn. That suggests our sp is expected to settle between 32p and £1.28 while we go through the process.

Why is our s.p. Currently 5.something? Who cares… on balance, given the info available right now, now is a good time to average down…

To be fair to geng, he did predict a 5.5 bottom and here we are… geng, if you’re listening, what are your thoughts on the long term chart? Seems to be sort of following the lassonde curve… what’s your charting knowhow say on the 5 year chart?

Good luck all, and hope the doldrums don’t last too long.

Pk

Nada.

Thanks for the chart, Geng. Super interesting and hope you’re right. I’ve also got some dry powder and will look at buying elbow 6p in the next week.

Sorry to hear your repetitive strain injury has bottomed out 😉

GLA pk.

Dunno, Prof. But Geng's gap has surely been filled.... Had enough of gap filling now, TBH.

When did you say MB was in London?

Not a single trade in the first 2 hours..... The market seems indifferent to this, and is maybe waiting for the Bhukia claim amount RNS...

There it is, @geng.... hope youre right and now it can carry on up!

Pk

I guess the auction price will give a guide as to what PAT will claim for!

Catch 22 for Indian state… if they aim for a high price then that’s what our claim will be. If they aim for a low price to get a lower potential arbitration payout, then they won’t get full value.

Basically the full selling price is at stake through our BIT claim, so it’s sort of a bonkers idea to send them to auction….

Just had a look at his history too… seems mr Lowence is a fan of the toxic comment. Nothing kind, helpful, thoughtful or factual on the first page,

I totally welcome differing opinions, but with toxicity, my filter level is a low bar and it’s already enough for me. I expect a line of green text will appear on my feed shortly… but that’s ok.

Thx for posting the quote and the source @gls44.

The arbitration rules are well worth reading the whole shebang if you get a spare few minutes.

https://icsid.worldbank.org/procedures/arbitration/convention/overview/2022

This is the AUS/BIT agreement (hope the PDF link works):

https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/international-investment-agreements/treaty-files/154/download

Just for background and reference.

Thx for the summary @prof.

Let’s hope the rich news stream continues, and lest we not forget the bullish RNS released ten mins before close of play Friday. I have literally no clue how that will affect SP in 14.5 hrs time.

AIM shenanigans, market genuinely receives it badly, or market starts to see value… roll up roll up, place your bets….

GLA for this week, all invested…

Pk

Just seen the time the RNS was issued… 9 minutes to go before the end of the week, and a solitary 40k buy before the close.

Heck of a reaction time with that amount of dry powder…. Nudge and a wink?

Let’s see how it opens on Monday morn after the market has had all weekend to stew on its contents.

Knowing AIM, the opposite to what you’d expect but I live in hope.

Pk

Positive RNS… sounds nicely bullish.

Have a great weekend all.

@jmuk26, thx for your balance in the discussion, and all viewpoints are welcome and healthy here.

“ . If there were it would be settled out of court which it hasn’t”. - to be clear, it has only been to the GOR court. Their point of view is local, and as there is plenty of research on, inherently blinkered/protectionist/corrupt (delete as you see fit).

It was always highly unlikely to have had a positive outcome in the local court, as has been demonstrated by the long term frustration tactic employed by them.

The BIT arbitration system (I posted the rules and regs of this a couple of weeks back if you want to look) is designed for when all other paths have failed to reach an agreed resolution. And that’s where we are at, and we’re always likely to get to.

I suspect the people on the other side of the arbitration table will not be the GOR court, but the Indian state, a higher body. So it’s a little misleading to say it would have already been settled out of court if it was nailed on… the local court were never going to accept a PAT payout of the value of the mine.

Thank you for your assurances on the speed of progress. Probs going to take that as another opinion rather than an assurance. If it’s ok, I’m going to only be assured by by own research rather than by a faceless moniker on a chat room…

All in my humble opinion, of course.

GLA all invested.

PK.

Having a proper read of the RNS, the things that struck me are:

a) how quickly it came out… like the result was expected and the this was written ready to go.

B) that I it think it’s clear given the tone, language and facts, that fasken have had a hand in the writing. This RNS is step one of their strategy, and things are going to plan.

C) the licences now won’t be coming even if the claim is successful. This is now a one horse focus of a compensation claim.

D) “ The non‐recourse Facility is to be used by IGPL in prosecuting its Treaty claims against India. If no award and/or recovery are achieved, then LCM Funding is not entitled to any repayment of the Facility. ”….. thats some 13 million quid gamble, the length of due diligence suggest that LCM view their chance of success as, in legal terms…. “Nailed on”.

Overall this path is the one that’s been planned for and totally expected. I think it’s really good news for the company, and cannot wait for the next ‘BIT between the teeth” RNS…. And subsequent matching of sp to value/risk.

Exciting times and good luck all invested… non invested scare-mongers, no so much good luck.

PK

In the words of the frozen song, mm's:

Let it gooooo, let it gooooooooooo

Good vibes for tomorrow!

@prof, your options are as I see it too.

Logic says your figures are totally realistic, and when the sp was in the 5-7p range earlier this year, I posted on here other examples which have 80-100 bagged at similar stages of their growth phase on the lassonde curve. Whilst the GOR shenanigans have been complicating this curve somewhat in our case here, I think the asset is absolutely worth that, and once unlocked could see these sorts of values.

Let’s hope this unlocking starts tomorrow lunchtime.. looking at these bulky trades coming in, somebody with some welly looks to feel the same.

Hashtag notsellinganyuntilafiver.

Come on MB… GLA pk.

Only basing my thoughts on a 775m payout on piecing together everything I’ve researched in the past, and mixing it with a bit of gut and general feeling, I doubt they would offer us that much as a starting point.

Did somebody say a few weeks back that another company’s shares went to 20% of the BIT claim amount on BIT application? That would be 300m payout, maybe then factor in our backing and maybe a bit of negotiation to get to 500m? So £3.3?

I wonder what MB’s checkout price would be? For me, I’d hope for £5 per share but anything north of £1 and I’m mortgage free. £2.5 and work becomes optional. No harm in dreaming.

Pk

Looking at the trade action, @prof, someone or some people with deeper pockets than I are thinking the same….

This has flown under the radar for a few years now, with a significant uptick in activity both on trades and one this bb in the last 6-9 months… but one thing is sure, and that is I don’t recall any £90k trades before nor almost 1% of shares being traded in a day.

It’s got to move significantly at some time, and it may as well be Wednesday… strap in, tin hat on, and roll on the next RNS.

GLA pk.