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Not a $50bb discount I'm guessing.
There are obvious issues, but taking that into account, I thought the article gave us hope. Hence our SP.
“Despite the problems, we’re a long term partner. We believe these issues will be resolved,” Spence said. DNO is moving ahead with its commitment well on the Baeshiqa licence. This is the last well in the programme, with a gross cost of $18mn."
I don't think DNO would be investing $18mm if they didn't believe it was going to be sorted.
I thought this was particularly interesting.
"“We continue to see progress,” said Genel CFO Luke Clements. “It’s painfully slow. But it’s not like we’re close and then it all blows up. It’s just small steps, but with good progress.”
and this, though we already knew it.
“The settlement is being drawn down because there’s a ‘ship-or-pay’ on the pipeline. They’re burning through it,” Harris said.
""Unable to access export prices, the operators have turned to the local market and local refineries."
- Safe to say, nothing we didn't know.
"“Local sales have been up and down … I think some supplies from the KAR refinery were being diverted into northern Iraq and they’ve come back in November. That has led to barrel-on-barrel competition in Kurdistan,” Harris said."
- Again, nothing really new.
We all know selling locally is sub-optimal, to say the very least.
However it has stopped cash burn and kept us afloat.
How sustainable over a prolonged period it is, remains to be seen
" while the Company is receiving advance payments for its net entitlement of 36% of gross sales revenue "
Very good point.
That would equate to $27,907,200
Against opex cost of $18,000,000 over the same period
"bearing in mind the comments made by the CEO"
Which comments?
GKP are currently spending $6m a month.
They had gross average sales of 28,800 bopd between 25 Sept and 11 Dec.
Thats 78 days at 28,000bopd, with an assumed selling price of $30pb. This would mean they generated $65,520.000 in revenue over the 78 day period.
Plus whatever they sold in the last 20 days of Dec. Lets call it 20,000 bopd, that would be another $12,000,000
Lets call 3 months of opex costs from 25th Sept, at $6mn a month opex costs, gives us $18,000,000 over the same period.
So theoretically for the last 3 months of 2023, we had costs of $18,000,000 and income of $77,520,000.
Leaving a surplus of $59,520,000.
If my numbers are inaccurate, I'm happy to be corrected
Some interesting titbits in the article.
- Genel CFO Luke Clements. “It’s painfully slow. But it’s not like we’re close and then it all blows up. It’s just small steps, but with good progress.” -
- DNO’s Chris Spence expressed surprise at the amount of oil that the companies were able to sell into the local market. “It’s low pricing but it’s still a higher price than it costs us to produce the oil. We’d love to sell at Brent-like prices but we are still making a profit.” -
- DNO’s Chris Spence said the company had moved quickly to pare back spending. Operational spending is down 65%, he said. -
- Production cost is “well under $10 per barrel, I think the last number is about $6”. -
- GKP has also cut costs, with Harris reporting opex at $3.2 per barrel. -
- “Despite the problems, we’re a long term partner. We believe these issues will be resolved,” Spence said. DNO is moving ahead with its commitment well on the Baeshiqa licence. This is the last well in the programme, with a gross cost of $18mn.-
"PUTUP, give em a break and stop p155ing on folks bonfires, let the dreamers dream 😉"
I bought in at 91p. Am going to make a lot of money out of GKP in the next 12 months.
My bonfire is fine thanks, got fireworks, hot dogs, and everything...lol
Amount of Oil + cost of extraction + price of oil + future dividends + potential de-risking of historical issues.
Save your sneering for someone who G.A.F.
See you here in March.
TTFN
A few p here and there is irrelevant.
In 6 months time, the SP will be 3x or 4x what it is now. (or more!!)
Plus the divi.
If you are in when it hits £5, you won't care too much if you bought in at £1.15 or £1.25
I would partly agree.
Will likely drop when the day traders move on, or no news.
My advice if you own shares and are in for the long term, look away till March.
Then sit back and enjoy the dividends
Will be ups and downs.
But long term a no brainer.
Pipeline not open, oil not flowing = 90p...Again!!
Its like a game they have over there, someone releases potentially positive news, share price shoots up
A day later someone releases not so positive news, (or new news) and the share price falls back down.
Rinse and repeat.
Its almost like they planned it ;-)
Long term you should be fine (all things being equal)
Let me reverse the question, if I asked you, if I should average down at this price what would you say?
fwiw, my feeling is a bit of patience and you well get a better buy in price.
Though if it does rise, you are back nearer your buy in price. So a bit of patience is not going to do you any harm either way.
Cineworld Group plc have a median target of 100.06 at least.
Frankly a meaningless statement.
I don't short, but if I did, this would be the share I shorted.
Knowing between now and 31st July, it has debt, no meaningful revenue and a court case that could drag on for an unknown length of time.
I have posted the negatives, so what are the positive, when they are open normally, it is a business that makes good money, enough to service the debt. There are lots of good movies waiting to be put out there.
Hopefully pent up demand, and plentiful of supply.
Problem is, what happens between now and then
All companies that go the wall have one thing in common, and many do not make a loss.
That one thing do they have in common is debt.
I don't think CINE will go to the wall, as long as they can service their debt.
But currently, nothing to support the SP.
Exactly, no real revenue between now and the 31st.
Does anyone know what numbers are visiting the sites that are open?
I'm going to say small.
Don't get me wrong, I think long term this is a great share, lots of good movies coming out later in the year, but nothing to support it between now and then