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Where does your info come from?
Mr. Jordan Soko, Acting Chief Executive of African Copper, said," The focus now is to exceed these levels as we move into increasing proportions of sulphide ore at Thakadu and to prove up additional resources from our strong portfolio of appraisal and exploration prospects." Looks like they are actually delivering, with more to come. Somewhat ironic that the as they reach record production the sp nears record lows.
Discovery rejects A$830m cash bid Production and Markets Publishing Date 12 Oct 2012 Botswana-focused copper producer Discovery Metals Ltd has rejected a A$830 million(US$852 million) cash takeover from a Chinese joint venture comprising Cathay Fortune Corp (CFC) and China-Africa Development Fund (CADF). Discovery said after discussing the takeover yesterday with representatives from CFC and CADF it advised the joint venture it would not accept the non-binding A$1.70 per share proposal. In a statement released to the market, Discovery said the offer was inadequate and did not reflect the value of the company?s operations and expansion plans. The takeover offer from the joint venture, which is 75%-owned by CFC and 25%-owned by CADF, was made on September 21 but was not publicly announced until October 4. CFC, which is the largest shareholder in Discovery with about a 13% stake, said at the time the offer was made it represented a 50% premium to the 30 day volume-weighted average price. However, DML shares had risen steadily to close at A$1.455 on the day before the takeover bid was announced to the markets, reducing the A$1.70 per share offer
i don't know. Maybe to see if they can actually make a profit, or to see the outcome of the long ongoing 'Strategic review'
2,882 x 7500 = $21.615.000 Revenue for 3 months. Not bad for a company valued at £15m. According to ZCIfan, ZCI started the sale process last november, and where already at an advanced stage when the first RNS went out, last Feb I believe. So Zcifan, state where you get your info from, or stop telling us the talks are at an advanced stage. Unless you have a very ambigious definition of the phrase 'advanced stages'
http://www.cnbc.com//id/48643187 “That has to be put in context that over the next 5 years, China will probably consume 50 million tons of copper,”
Well if they update the markets as they improve production levels, hopefully we will se a response in the sp. Looks like they may have cottoned on to the idea. http://www.miningweekly.com/article/african-copper-suspends-mining-at-mowana-to-focus-on-thakadu-2012-08-10 “Production in 2012 showed some positive signs. We are now determined to get our mining facilities right so that we can increase our throughput and production to levels that the high-quality assets justify," Soko notes
I am not posting negative hypothesis, I look at the assumptions they have made, and looked at the strengths and weaknesses of those assumptions. I think an an assumption of a copper price of US$7,936 for the next twelve months to be optimistic, I think an average of $7500 to be more likely, but in the current climate who really knows. I think an assumption of an average monthly production of copper of 1,120 Mt to be pessimistic given that they produced 955 mt in July with a recovery rate of 55%, when they themselves state a recovery rate in the range of 80% to 90% is achievable. Even if we assume their production figures are correct that would mean production of 13.5 mt p/a with revenues of over $100m, if they cannot make a decent profit on that they shouldn't be in the mining business. Which if they sell up they may soon not be. One thing the increase in production figures can do the sale price no harm, whenever it eventually happens. Hopefully they will give us production figures on a regular basis now.
ZCI fan, those forcasts are made using a number of assumptions. 1] an average copper price per tonne over the 12 month period to July 2013 of US$7,936, --It has averaged about $7500 for the last three months,-- 2] average monthly production of copper in concentrate of 1,120 Mt of copper in concentrate. --If they can increase recovery to 80% to 90% then they could well exceed 1,120Mt ,omthly production. They also said this "-- shortfalls in the average copper price of up to 10%; -- shortfalls in average recoveries of up to 10%; and -- a possible shutdown of operations for circa 20 days in the event of a critical equipment failure would result in an additional funding requirement of up to US$10 million (all other assumptions remaining unchanged). I am not being negative, just realistic. I haven't as yet had time to have a detailed read of the results, have they given any figures on what there costs are per lb or per mt?
It certainly is one of the better RNS's, though to be fair it doesn't have much compitition It is a corker really, and in times gone past we would have seen a far bigger increase than we have today. However it looks like there is more to come. recovery was 55% and they said in the full year results "the corresponding estimate for the sulphide ore is in the range of 80% to 90%." though production is also going to be affected by the grade, but if they can get to 80% to 90% that would indicate the potential to nearly double the 955 mt produced in July which would give a potential production of around 22,000 mt p/a. You might still make a profit on this yet. I better be carefull I'm sounding all optimistic again.
"production in July has shown positive signs of progress. We expect to realise the benefits of our capital expenditure programme through the remainder of the year" "While historical test work estimated a recovery of some 40% for the Thakadu oxide ore, the corresponding estimate for the sulphide ore is in the range of 80% to 90%." So it is sit on our hands for another 6 months. If the market and other oppertunities where better, I would sell up, as it stands I have no where better to put my money at the present.
ZCI don't have a particularly good record of keeping it's stakeholders up to date with information. I am on holiday at present and will look into ACU's results in detail when I get back. Have they put in any details regarding production costs? I want to know what it costs them per lb to produce?
ZCI up 6.67% on the JSE, falt on the Bourse and we are down 5.88% on the AIM. Make of it what you will
"We anticipate that our company will be in a position to generate positive cash flows on a monthly basis during the first half of the next financial year,"
Where is this memorandum, is it in the public domain?
Well the running costs are the multi million dollar question. Some back in time (before ZCI) they quoted that it would cost $2.50 per lb initially and would then fall. In my last email to ACU they told me a detail breakdown of costs would be in the full year results, which have yet to arrive. Remember ACU have two working mines and three prospective world class discoveries. Long term the world is not going to need less copper, and the Chinese particularly invest for the long term I might take my laptop, but we are going to the sticks, so not sure if we will have wireless.
It is easy to be downbeat about the sittuation, but looking at what ACU have, it is not inconsiderable. I struggle to see how it could be sold for less than $200m, even at that price looking at recent comparible sales, it would be a steal, if there is any justice it should be nearer $500m. Aside from my financial interest, i am fascinated to see how this pans out
The sp ahs more to do with the general market sentiment in my opinion. They have released news, we know from figures that are already in the public domain. ACU up to March look to have produced 7045 tonnes of Copper, which at a price of $8000 a tonne works out they should have generated $56.36m in revenue this year. The secrecy could be something to do with any potential buyer, as could the decision not to release full year results, but in reality who knows, but we should certainly find something out in the next few weeks. Which is a bit of a bugger for me as I go on holiday on Friday, I was hoping it would be all done and dusted by then. It is impossible to call now, could go either way, personally I'm in until the end now one way or another.
did you hear personally from ZCI?
I agree with zcifan, I don't see what they would sell, the onlu asset they have is ACU, I have thought for a long time they intended to sell all or part of it, thats why they never bought out the minority shares