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I don't think my patience can be doubted, or my resliiance. Any whispers of news?
Well had a little nibble this morning. at these bargain prices. Brave or fool hardy? Remains to be seen. But seems no real reason for the fall.
Is there a record for the number of Cautionary Announcements? and are ZCI \ ACU trying to break it? For the last time? I'm not so sure, but as always we await further news.
Sorry seems to be old news. Though as yet there is nothing else to report.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/26/us-russia-summit-norilsk-two-idUSBRE88P1DO20120926 "Russia's Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.MM), the world's largest nickel and palladium miner, is taking its push to boost reserves to Africa, where it is considering deals and the acquisition of copper, nickel and platinum licenses, its CEO said on Wednesday." "Chief executive Vladimir Strzhalkovsky said it was too soon to detail specific deals, though he said the company had received a "large number of proposals" in Africa. Norilsk already operates in Botswana and South Africa, where it jointly owns the only primary nickel producer."
I think we all know it should go for a decent price (if it goes) the question is why is it taking so bl00dy long?
Since 22-May when we had the failure of the Ball Mill pinion shaft, we have had two Record Production RNS's. So we cannot complain of them not delivering positive news, however when you dig down it becomes even more positive. The latest update is from October 15 when they produced 976 mt from 81,294 mt of ore processed with a 69.8% recovery rate The capacity is capable of I believe 90-100000 mt, and the % of ore processed target is 80%-90%, as both these figures improve, then the amount of money coming in is going to hit some eye watering figures. Also as the amounts being produced go up, the costs come down If Norlisk or anyone else comes calling ZCI are not exactly a forced seller.
Zabs, if we go for $200m, that would be a 5 or 6 fold increase on the current sp, including debt. I would be happy with the return, but would think it has been undersold, at $300m I would be very happy indeed. Where does your rumour come from regarding Norlisk?
From earlier in the year """The Romanian government said Canada's Roman Copper Corp successfully bid €200.8 million (US$267M) for SC Cuprumin SA Abrud’s Rosia Poieni porphyry copper-gold mine, winning an open outcry auction" "The mine produces around 11,000 tonnes of copper a year" So they paid $267m for a mine that prduces 11k tonnes a year!! ACU should produce 7k tonnes this year based on the last half year figures, though they and us are expecting these figures to increase substantially, with a target of 30k tonnes per year! Though it is difficult to do a direct comparision, it does give us an idea of the kind of figures these assets are going for. Plus they will also get thrown in ""MM is confident that the exploration programs currently being imple-mented will lead to the discovery of one or more major mineral deposits in the short term." Looking at all the information out it is very difficult to see ACU going for less than $200m, unless some very shady deals have gone on."
looking at the prices paid for other similar(ish)copper mines, I would say $500m would be fair value. but that is just my personal opinion However it is always difficult to compare like for like, and we have no idea what any deal ZCI sign (if they do) will look like. They might take some cash, and some investment to develope further areas. We know what we think it is worth, which is substantial more than the current sp, we don't know what it will actually go for, if it goes at all. The wait continues
$100m not $1
Very interesting, looks like they are paying $82m for the 81.4% they don't own, valuing them at $1 ACU are probably three or four years ahead of them, assuming they have some teething problems as most new mines eem to have. Which would value us at $???m
We have seen some copper mines sold for some pretty hefty figures in the last year. This is what is surprising regarding the time it has taken for ZCI Strategic review. There is obviousoy some reason we are unaware of, though it clearly isn't performance as the mine is going from strength to strength. I have come to the conclusion that they want a partial sale, and want someone who is willing to join them on their terms. This does not mean it is bad , as production is increasing handover fist, and revenues should follow, taking the sp with it. It apears the difficult stage in the developement is now behind us. Thanks to the funding provided by ZCI, a funding stream that lots of AIM miners would give their right arm for.
SP crawling back up. Wouldn't take much buying to make a significant jump.
Better up than down. The actual spread is 1.82 - 2.18
"highly oxidized ore has been difficult to process, as evidenced by the 2012 recovery rate of 48%. As noted, to assist in improving recoveries from the oxide ore, we employed a series of chemical re-agents, significantly increasing the cost of processing. These chemicals will not be required as the mine moves into the sulphide ore. While historical test work estimated a recovery of some 40% for the Thakadu oxide ore, the corresponding estimate for the sulphide ore is in the range of 80% to 90%" So far recovery rates have increased to between 55% and 69%, if they can increase to 80% to 90% this will further increase cash flow and profitibility. so still plenty of improvement left in the tank.
Discovery Metals’ The Boseto Copper Project (100% owned) is designed to produce an average of approximately 36,000 tonnes copper and 1.1 million ounces silver per annum in concentrate from 3 million tonnes per year ACU already mining 950mt per month and 125,477 ounces of silver in the last financial year. If I remember ACU where looking for between 20k and 30k mt p/a .Plus they also have other prospecting zones Both opperate in botswana, DML recently tunred down an $830m bid. Not always easy to compare like for like, but even at a give away price $200m looks somewhat ridiculous in comparision. Surely this strategic review cannot continue indefinately, Lets hope we can get some idea of what we are actually worth. Sometime before the next ice age would be nice
rWe should also remember that in the Full Year Resuts we had an expense of $7.7 million chemical reagents for oxide ores. As we have now move onto ever increasing Sulphide ores, then this cost will reduce significanlty. So we could be $5m up, by doing nothing. After a long, long time, things are at last starting to look very good indeed for ACU
Lets agree to differ. (Not about you being a man, I am willing to concede to your greater knowledge on that one) The main thing is, if they keep up (or increase) current production levels, then you have a company generating nearly $100m p/a, with further areas to prospect, described by the comapny as containing at least 3 world class discoveries. You would hope they could make a profit on revenue of $100m, which if they can will make the £15m valuation look as ridiculous as it is. Plus as you say, it makes it a far better prospect for sale, or jv. And at least they are now keeping us well informed of production levels, but then they do have plenty to boast about. The half year reports should be very interesting.
Funny i always assumed you where a man. If someone posts info that is not in the public domain, it is not unreasonable to ask where that info comes from.