RE: PHE and W2T29 May 2020 17:16
operastar: After the take-over, clearly there will be more shares in issue. But the reason for the take-over is so that the new merged company is in a stronger position than the previous two individual companies, and with greater potential. If it were not so, then frankly there would be no point in doing the take-over!
The current Market Cap of PHE is £71M with a share price of 3.425. If the share price was to remain at this level following the take-over, then the MCAP of the new enlarged company would be £118M. So the question is, what would the market regard as a fair MCAP following take-over - would it be more or less than £118M? Looking at the MCAP of some of our peers at the moment, my view is the £118 would not be excessive. To be sustainable that would require a Profit After Tax of £4.7M in the next 2 or 3 years, using a PE ratio of 25 which I think is a fair measure for a young rapidly developing company.
Another way to look at it is this: As the imminent issue of a further 1.375M shares is well known in advance, if any shareholders were concerned about a dilution of 66% surely they would have got out before now, and surely the SP would have dropped already. Why would they sit around and wait for their investment to drop by 66%? Instead, the SP has risen from 0.46p at the date of the announcement (23rd December 2019) to 3.4p today.
We also have to bear in mind that the shares that will be issued to the W2T shareholders cannot be sold for a period of time, and even then on a controlled basis, so they are not going to flood the market.
Now for the caveat! Obviously I cannot guarantee that the SP will not drop to some extent when the large chunk of PHE shares are issued, and that may be even more likely if the price keeps rising between now and then. But what I am saying is this, that given the prospects in the next several years, I don't believe that the company would be over-valued after the merger if the SP remained around where it is now.