Member Info for pied_piper

Stephen, the bit that's exercising my mind is whether Conrad can sell down part of their holding - irrespective of the dispute (and assuming a farminee is willing).

Conrad hold 76.5% (or 91.5% - although the Minister hasn't signed it off yet). All the JVP's had tag along rights but they also had the rights to sell in the open market - provided the other JVP's were given the right of first refusal. Could Conrad offer Eme say, 50%, which they will obviously have to turn down and then Conrad sell to the existing farminee who is sitting in the wings patiently waiting?

It's messy - but Conrad might wriggle out that way and leave eme to do their own thing...

I wonder also to what extent the eme loan note holders got involved? It's possible Conrad were happy to accept a price that eme and the loan note holders weren't happy with and that's created a stand-off? The 15% gift of the Coro shares certainly made it easier for Conrad's sums to add up at a lower level.

Just some idle thoughts.

Stephen,

This is eme's side of the story. I assume Conrad will "reply" with their own RNS overnight to put their case. Eme can't afford a protracted legal battle so that will weigh heavily on their decision making process. They also normally put their Interims out just before Christmas. Their "Going concern" statement will be difficult - unless they sort this quickly.

Well, I did suggest there were lots of red flags out there and this was one of them. I hate to see people lose money - especially those who are inexperienced and got sucked in by the rampers who suggested this was a one way bet. I hope nobody went "all in" on this as, for now, it is uninvestable until bit of clarity returns.

Good luck.

This is the third time people have a their last chance" to either take a position before news - or get out. There's no reason to assume that suddenly people will have changed their minds. Especially since, on past performances, there's no guarantee there will be news tomorrow. Have Conrad managed to get large enough brown envelopes into the right pockets, of the right Indo officials, so that this can be signed off?

Magpie. I'd love to know where you got this from?

"Go Bi sorry did you even see what happened. It went to arbitration and the independent verdict was delivered of 87.5 million USD valuation for the 15% share. Yes still in arbitration but With Conrad refusing to pay this valuation the deal collapsed. I think they will have learnt to give a fair valuation of the 8.5% share to prevent any law suits and potential for the deal to collapse. Also that valuation was prior to GSA and Further de-risking if farm down agreed."

Are you sure you're not confusing it with the ongoing arbitration that Coro have with an Italian contractor with regards to the Bezzecca Field in Italy? Therefore irrelevant to Conrad "valuations" of what the Mako field might be worth?

Lol. Unlike you lot, I don't spend every waking second agonising and analysing every post and share price tick! I have other things to do so 10 pm was my first chance to look in.

A dose of reality never hurts to keep the feet on the ground, especially when so many people seem to ignore (or are unaware of) the debt position and in particular the 15% bonus payable to the loan note holders based on the gross sales price eme agree for their 8.5%. I suspect also, that this will not be a straight forward deal. I would be surprised if a farminee agrees a price and pays everything straight away - since they're probably 2 years away from first gas.

That is a problem for eme (not insurmountable at a price) as the full payment to the loan note holders - capital, accrued interest and bonus - becomes payable the moment the deal is agreed.

Anyway, I'm sure you don't want to hear about the other red flags kicking around, like CNOOC pursuing their claim for $12m - if and when eme have any cash in the bank?? Or why it was that Conrad thought they could farm down around 36.5% (76.5% down to40% as originally stated) of the project to get the deal away and it looks like they might have to farm down 66.5% (91.5% down to 25%)instead? (Thanks Coro, your cheap 15% was a real bonus for Conrad!!)

Back on monday and good luck to those still holding!!

"StellaOne

Posts: 285

Price: 0.135

No Opinion

"RE: In the hands of the godsToday 20:59

No, you've all misunderstood. If Conrad sell the 75% stake for £69 million, our 8.5% would be worth £7.82 million, which is roughly where we are. Therefore, if Conrad sell the 75% for anything more than £69 million, then our MCAP will increase."

Lol! If eme get £7.82m then they're bust ffs. At that sales price, their debt is around £11m - with no projects left and a few muppets running the show.

To justify a share price of .15p, then they need to get $30m for their 8.5% to be breaking even - debt v's cash. In turn that means the 75% (which I believe includes eme's 8.5%) needs to be sold for $235m.

That said, you can bet your bottom dollar that the deal won't be as straight forward as that. Or indeed, there may be a further suspension on Sunday night. The Indonesians don't have the best track record for speed when it comes to paperwork!!

Tedwyn60s: Eme have Drag and tag rights which enable them to sell the same % of their ownership as Conrad.

To justify a share price of just .1p (mkt cap circa $10m), eme need to sell their share for about $30m, in order to pay circa $15m in debts and a $4,5m bonus to the loan note holders. (Let's ignore the CNOOC claim for $12m).

The apparent fact that Conrad are having to sell down to only 25% in order to make the numbers work (possibly because of the debt structure they need) is not advantageous for the eme valuation of their 8.5% and $30m seems a stretch to achieve.

Just a warning - beware the obvious rampers encouraging everyone to keep buying.

Interesting they state 75% which implies they are keeping only 25%. Previously they said they were going to farm down to 40%.

A slight update on my previous post when I said the pipeline would be operational by early 2026. It seems that is incorrect. What they have said is they will give a COD (Commercial Operation Date) in early 2026. The construction is likely to take 14 - 18 months, so work on end 2027 for first gas through the spur. That seems to make more sense.

Finally some good news. The contract has been signed today for the building of the pipeline spur. Due to be operational "early 2026" apparently.

https://www.petromindo.com/news/article/pln-epi-timas-suplindo-sign-epci-contract-for-wnts-pemping-gas-pipeline-project

Blakieboy. My heart says it would love for this to come good, as I still hold a number of shares here. My head is saying there are too many alarm bells and red flags kicking around not only with Conrad but specifically with eme and the outcome will disappoint many.

Time will tell but I wouldn't bank on "this year".

Building nicely? Lol. There's 20 million + available at .064 if you fancy them.

Blakieboy. DD ?? Seriously?? This is what Conrad said in their Dcember 2024 Annual Report:

"Discussions for a Duyung farm down are progressing. The Company is currently engaged in confidential discussions with a

preferred partner. Negotiations with multiple financial institutions are taking place with indicative proposals received and due

diligence ongoing to fund the debt financing component of the project."

That's a year ago now. And you think they're doing DD for all that time? The only DD they admit to is with financial institutions and banks to LEND them money. I thought Conrad were supposedly getting hundreds of millions. Lol.

The delay is because the numbers don't work as hoped.

PS. Any sign of an agreement for a contractor to build the pipeline spur yet? I thought someone said it would be finished by the end of the year. Double Lol

"It is as clear as night follows day that EME's stake in the Mako Gas Field is worth possibly 10+ times the current £3.5m m/cap"

Is it? I'd say it's clear as night follows day that Conrad are struggling (like they have done for a couple of years) to get a farminee to agree numbers that work out as well as Conrad had hoped. Eme will be very lucky to get anything north of $18-20m which will just about pay off their debts and the bonus they will have to pay to the CLN holders ( a further $3m if they were lucky enough to get $20m). And then you have to hope that CNOOC don't come knocking for the $12m they think they are owed.

Let's face it - it's as clear as night follows day that most sensible people have seen the writing on the wall, given up and moved on. Even Nortrust just use it as a plaything.

I presume it may have been discussed at the time. Anyone know why the Auditors resigned in March?

I agre LuckyL. That's a change from the original RNS and from what Winnifrith said yesterday. Good news, Imo

So would I and I'm sure the company would be as well!

It's not necessarily the negative thing that the rampers always start shouting about.

Pretty certain Shore Cap have been working a placing since yesterday morning. £1-2m at 20p is what they are trying for. Imo

LuckyLaurie.

Thanks for the synopsis. Where do you get the statement that the deposit has been received? Winnifrith spoke to the company this morning and he says the deposit is expected in the next 3 months.

Thanks.

I admire your optimism Fell but there is little chance of paying off all the debts AND giving something to shareholders AND having something available for "additional projects". That's for the fairies, I'm afraid.