Member Info for pied_piper

From another board

ANCHORAGE, Alaska--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today Glenfarne Alaska LNG LLC, a subsidiary of Glenfarne Group, and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) Alaska announced the companies have signed a gas sales precedent agreement to supply natural gas produced on Alaska’s North Slope for Phase One of the Alaska LNG project.

"Today’s milestone agreement establishes the commercial terms for ConocoPhillips to supply gas and help Phase One of Alaska LNG provide energy security for Alaska."

Share

With this thirty-year agreement, Alaska LNG has now secured precedent agreements for sufficient volumes to support a Phase One final investment decision and supply enough natural gas to meet Alaska’s energy needs.

Glenfarne is developing Alaska LNG in two financially independent phases to accelerate project execution. Phase One consists of the 739-mile, 42-inch pipeline to transport natural gas to Alaska consumers to strengthen long-term energy security and address looming supply shortfalls resulting from declining Cook Inlet production. Phase Two will add the LNG export facilities in Nikiski.

Alaska LNG now has agreements with all three major North Slope producers: ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Hilcorp Alaska, as well as Great Bear Pantheon LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Pantheon Resources plc (AIM: PANR).

Adam Prestidge, President of Glenfarne Alaska LNG, said, “All major North Slope producers have now committed enough natural gas to support a Phase One final investment decision. Today’s milestone agreement establishes the commercial terms for ConocoPhillips to supply gas and help Phase One of Alaska LNG provide energy security for Alaska. I appreciate Erec and his team for their continued collaboration and support as we advance this transformational energy project for Alaska.”

ConocoPhillips Alaska President Erec Isaacson said, “ConocoPhillips shares Glenfarne’s commitment to developing Alaska’s resources for the long-term benefit of Alaskans. Our participation in Alaska LNG supports reliable access to responsibly produced North Slope natural gas while complementing our ongoing investment in Alaska.”

About Alaska LNG

Alaska LNG consists of an 807-mile 42-inch pipeline to deliver natural gas from Alaska’s North Slope to meet Alaska’s domestic needs and produce 20 MTPA of LNG for export. Glenfarne is developing Alaska LNG in two financially independent phases to accelerate project execution. Phase One includes the domestic pipeline to deliver natural gas to Alaskans. Phase Two will add the infrastructure to export LNG. Glenfarne owns 75% of Alaska LNG and the State of Alaska, through the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, owns 25%.

This was first in the press on 22nd April, it was in the MST note of 23rd April and formal letters went out on 30th April. This was just the formal signing today. Total trades in Conrad overnight? ..One!

Buy if you fancy it, but don't get sucked in by any MM induced spike that they might try, as this is old news.

Richie1132

Member since May 2009

Posts: 595

Price: 0.06

RE: Anyone seen the rumour of £50 million buyout for EME’s 8.5%Today 10:20

Ok just had a look at the MST report and CRD is operator and 22.875% participant in the Mako gas project.

and they are forecasting CRD's revenue share ~US$70-75M p.a. at current gas prices and at plateau production rates Page 1&2.

So on that calculation EME's share for their 8.5% would be cUS$18M p.a x9 = cUS$162M

Richie.

I'm not sure about your maths (8.5% of 71.7m is???) but in any event it's not quite that simple.

With the help of AI putting it more concisely than I can, the figure for cash availability for EME/Loan note holders is $2.44m for 2028. Probably enough to pay the interest on the loan and a bit more.

"The $2.44 million is calculated by applying Empyrean’s 8.5% entitlement to the $28.7 million "Net Cash" figure (after debt and financing costs) shown in the MST note.

To be precise, here is the waterfall of how that $2.44m is derived from the MST P&L and Cash Flow table:

1. The Starting Point (WNEL/Conrad Share)Gross Sales: $71.7m (This is the revenue from WNEL's 25% project interest).Operating Cash Flow: $45.4m (This is what’s left after taxes, royalties, and operating costs).

2. The "Financing" Deductions (The Carry Loan). They represent the project "paying back" the cost of building the wells and infrastructure:Net Cash Financing: -$10.2mDebt Movement: -$10.0mTotal Cash Out for Debt: -$20.2m

3. The "Distributable" Cash$45.4m (Operating Cash) - $20.2m (Debt/Financing) = $25.2m

Note: MST’s table often shows a "Net Change in Cash" or "Free Cash Flow" line around $28.7m (depending on the exact tax treatment and opening cash balances used in their model).

4. The Empyrean "Read-Across"$28.7m (Net Distributable Cash) × 8.5% (EME share) = $2.44 million.

Why this is the "Clean" Number for Empyrean: Because Empyrean is "carried" (meaning they aren't writing checks for the $10m debt movement or the $10.2m financing costs themselves), their 8.5% is only calculated on the cash that actually makes it out of the SPV. The MST note effectively shows that even after paying back the banks and the farm-in partner for the construction costs, there is still a significant "pot" of ~$28.7m in Conrad's pocket for CY2028. Empyrean simply clips an 8.5% ticket on that final pot.

Important Note for CY2028:Don't forget that per the settlement, Conrad will deduct a one-off $353,388 from Empyrean's first dividends to settle the old legal dispute.

So, your actual "cash in bank" for Empyrean in 2028 would likely be roughly $2.09 million ($2.44m - $0.35m).

Mitriti.

I was being positive. I said I'm pretty sure they survive! ;-)

Cevodniya.

To answer your question directly about where the price might be going would lay me open to an accusation that I'm trying to get the price down in order to buy in cheaper. That's not the case and I'm not going there specifically! Suffice to say that I don't believe for a moment that gross sales of $40m over 9 years for Empyrean supports a market cap of $20m when there is $10-12m debt - as has been suggested earlier.

At the end of the day, the company is still effectively controlled by the CLN holders and there are still some large variables kicking around for the 9 years - notably the PoO - so doing a proper valuation is tricky. I tend to take a broad brush view and look on this as what are the possible/probable outcomes as follows.

0 - 10% chance. Loan note holders call in loan and just control their stake in Mako themselves for the duration. Wipe out for eme.

5 - 10% chance. Loan conversion to equity at any level. That would virtually wipe out current shareholders.

5 - 15% chance. Conrad or Nations buy Eme's stake. Loan gets paid off. Eme end up with £2-3m in the bank but no projects. Relying on Gaz to find something new, which would probably involve fund raising. Survival

10 - 20% chance. In September the can gets kicked down the road with a new 6 month holding position on loan with CLN holders. 5-10% interest rate.

50% chance. Before September, a comprehensive loan restructure covering first 4 years of gas sales during which the loan gets paid off and Eme keep £1 - 1.25m p.a to allow them to survive, before being set free in 5 years time. Any half decent new project needs fund raising.

The loan note holders have played hard ball so far and I expect that to continue. Therefore, based on the above, I see a very small chance of going bust, but a better than even chance of a restricted survival initially. I would suggest there is no chance of any proper Institutional involvement ever. I do expect the odd PI inspired (and MM encouraged) price spike along the way. I expect that to be short lived like all previous ones.

Time will tell and all imo.

I don't know. How fo you? Lol

P.S.

I just double checked and the license actually is really only 9 years at best. It ends in mid Jan 2037. So knock off about 10% from the previous estimates.

Sorry for the error!

Richie.

Most of those figure are right except for the important one.

The CPR your AI mentions was in 2022 and BEFORE Conrad did their deal with Nations therefore is still reflecting a 76.5% WI. That, as we know, is no longer the case. AI is horribly inaccurate on Mako and needs a lot of quizzing to get the right answers as to the up to date position.

The MST report of a week ago, paid for by Conrad, gives the most comprehensive picture of where they feel this is going.

Best attributable GROSS sales vale to Conrad for the lifetime of this license until 2037 (max 10 years) is somewhere around $650m. After Opex they're looking at around $450-480m.

For empyrean it looks like $55-60m Gross and $40-45m post Opex and before corporate costs for the whole 10 years.

You can argue numbers will change to a degree, but the current thinking is all there on Page 2!

https://conradasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/CRD.AX-Emerging-Indonesian-gas-producer-with-substantial-exploration-upside-042326.pdf

Lol. That made me laugh! Pot and kettle etc. You do enjoy making things up, don't you?

I'm not giving advice, I'm posting research and facts so that people can make their own slightly better informed decisions one way or the other. If people read the MST report and think it's brilliant and want to go long....fantastic. It's a free world and that's what makes a market. I'm sure you agree that the more independent information one has, the better the chance of making money?

No doubt we'll have your usual early morning ramp tomorrow. Preparing my riposte already!

:-))

JT71 is a dangerous joke.

The gross sales attributable to eme for the lifetime of the project (lets call it 10 years), assuming they start flowing gas on time, is in the region of $55-60m. That's before Opex which will be circa $1.8 - 2m p.a.. That's before tax and corporate costs etc etc.

Statements from JT71 like:

"Our current market cap just over 3 million versus an asset value of 279 million."

"It’s not sustainable when we have the $279 million deal secured..." are just disingenuous misleading statements.

Just follow the link to the research promoted by Conrad. The "facts" which JT71 loves are all there.

https://conradasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/CRD.AX-Emerging-Indonesian-gas-producer-with-substantial-exploration-upside-042326.pdf

I'm not sure I agree blakie.

You look at it from the pov view that you're looking to justify your long position - and that's fair enough. I look at it from the pov of can I justify adding more to my position?

The MST note gives it a thumbs down and although ( if the numbers are right) I think eme will survive (assuming there are no delays to the start of production) I think it's easy not to get excited about it. There might be spikes but there's no exciting long term future.

Sorry!

As ever, time will tell.

What I find interesting is that no-one has mentioned the very detailed MST broker note issued on 23rd April, just prior to the CRD quarterlies.

This is a very comprehensive report running to 25 pages, paid for by Conrad. Although it is independent, one has to assume that it is relatively accurate as Conrad will have guided strongly and its probably fair to assume that, if anything, it errs on the "positive" side.

In it, you get to see all the assumptions, cash flows, net profits etc etc for Conrad. For a ball-park, It is not unreasonable to apply a read across for eme at one twelfth that of conrad for most of the figures.

Personall, I think they're pretty optimistic assuming full production for the whole of 2028 giving a revenue of $71.7 but to counteract that, their assumptions of $10.09 /mcf looks too low to me as its based, broadly, on the original IPO prospectus of the sales price being 12% of Brent at $80/bbl. (They're unable to put in the proper prices as technically they have not been published but most people know that 13.5% of Indonesian oil price is nearer the mark).

When you analyse the figures, again as a ball park and erring on the positive side, you can model Empyrean as getting a pre-tax profit of $4m p.a. from sales of $6m p.a.. I'm not sufficiently au fait with the tax implications, but I believe tax is payable to the Indonesian authorities.

So that brings us to the obvious question. What's it worth?

The buyer prepared to pay the most is likely to be Conrad just simply increasing their WI to 25%. If you put the numbers into any AI system you like, with all sorts of permutations and variations, the best valuation is $15m - the median is in the $13-14m bracket. If Empyrean were to do a deal like that in the next 6 months, their debt to the CLN holders would be about $12m. Not a lot of value left there!

Headlines like "This is worth $279 to Empyrean" or "Anyone seen the rumour of £50m (i.e. $67m - lol) buyout for Empyreans 8.5%" are designed to deceive.

Like Mitriti, I welcome constructive comments.

https://conradasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/CRD.AX-Emerging-Indonesian-gas-producer-with-substantial-exploration-upside-042326.pdf

One look at the posters history on ADVFN will give you an idea of who they are and the fact they have used the exact same "I've heard a rumour about this rumour" tactic before.

You, JT71, are a very dangerous person with a very obvious agenda. Completely untrue story and doesn't even make any sense.

Your MO is repeated continuously over many boards. I guess you'll stoop to anything to get out of your longs.

Indeed it did work well. I was right to wait before adding any more.

I think it's fair to say that we have differing views on how the market values a situation where positive cash flow doesn't arrive for 5 years and all the while you are at the mercy of the whim of the CLN holder.

Btw, I'm still waiting for the debt restructuring settlement. All we've had is a can kick so far.

I think the market grasps it all very well and is demonstrating its reluctance to get heavily involved (rightly or wrongly).

At very best, cash starts to come through to Eme in 2028. Let's be very optimistic and say that's $4m. Unless things change with the CLN holder, at that point eme will owe them circa $12m. The loan note holders get preferential payments from all dividends going into WNEL. So, as things stand, eme do not get any free cash flow from Mako until 2031.

Unless and until this is clarified or rectified, the reluctance to get involved as a long term investment will persist - imo. For sure there will be short term spikes - but the fundamental debt versus income problem persists for a long time.

They might come up with a new project but for it to be worthwhile it will need funding and therein lies another problem.

Time will tell, as they say.

Greenland Energy Company Announces Closing of $70 Million Public Offering

29/04/2026 10:09pm

PR Newswire (US)

Greenland Energy (NASDAQ:GLND)

Intraday Stock Chart

Wednesday 29 April 2026

Click Here for more Greenland Energy Charts.

HOUSTON, April 29, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Greenland Energy Company (NASDAQ: GLND) ("Greenland Energy" or the "Company"), an energy company focused on Greenland's Jameson Land Basin, today announced the closing of its previously announced public offering of 16,250,000 shares of common stock, 1,250,000 pre-funded warrants to purchase shares of common stock, and 17,500,000 common warrants to purchase shares of common stock, for gross proceeds of approximately $70 million, before deducting placement agent fees and offering expenses.

Each share of common stock was sold together with one common warrant at a combined public offering price of $4.00. Each pre-funded warrant was sold together with one common warrant at a combined public offering price of $3.9999. Each common warrant has an exercise price of $5.00 per share, is exercisable immediately, and will expire on the fifth anniversary of the date of issuance. The common warrants have been approved for listing and commenced trading on Nasdaq under the symbol "GLNDW." The shares of common stock (or pre-funded warrants) and common warrants were purchased together in the offering but issued separately.

"This financing fully funds the execution of our exploration," said Robert B. Price, Chief Executive Officer of Greenland Energy Company. "We are now positioned to deploy capital into OPW1 & OPW2 procurement, secure mill capacity for long-lead materials, and mobilize the equipment, crews and logistics needed to advance our Jameson Land program towards our planned October 2026 drilling operations."

Proceeds from the offering position Greenland Energy Company as fully funded for its exploration plan, enabling the Company to execute across its Jameson Land program. Capital is expected to be deployed without delay toward critical path items, including casing and tubing for the OPW1 & OPW2 exploration well, securing mill capacity for long-lead materials, and advancing field readiness in Greenland — spanning mobile cranes, workforce mobilization, winter-preparation equipment, pipes, and tug-and-barge logistics. These activities will support the Company's planned commencement of drilling operations in October 2026.

The full $70m has been raised. Just announced.

Rock200.

The problem is that the "revenue stream" for eme from gas sales doesn't start in Q4 2027. There are several preferential recipients of the gas sales proceeds before eme get a look in. Indo Government and Nations, for starters. Best estimates are for cash from gas sales to be available to eme in 2029. At that point, again best estimates, it will be in the region of $3-4 million p.a.. Unless anything changes, by that time the CLN debt will be in the region of $14 million, and that doesn't sit very well with the income stream and having to pay back the loan.

That is why the can has been kicked down the road for six months. It suits both parties. The CLN holders because they retain control but don't have to "manage" the asset, whilst eme have bought some time to figure their way out of their difficulties.

At I guess, I would say they survive ( at the whim of the CLN holders who would probably accept a decent offer to get out now)- but it's going to be a long haul, with any new prospects likely needing additional funding which will be very dilutive.

I still have a few out of obstinacy, but I'm not holding my breath!

Apart from 8.5% of $4m due to Empyrean in 30-45 days $340k), there is no cash from the Mako project available to either Eme or their loan note holders until 2030 at the earliest. That's 4 years away and assumes there are no project delays. Can anyone explain how eme survive that long without significant cash raises, and what the likelihood is of the loan note holders being happy to wait that long to see a sniff of their money back? I would humbly suggest - no chance.

P.S. Sorry to interrupt the fanciful ramblings.

My last comment until the restructuring....

Re: 20 years to pay off the loan. There is no way that the note holders enter into a 20 year deal when the license, as it stands, will run for only 10 years of production.