Member Info for pied_piper

I'm writing a thesis on the psyche of bb's and thought this would be a great place to start.

Do you dispute the figure of $60-70m?

Excusing me for interrupting the hand holding session.

I'm trying to fathom the "asset value" and "billions" in the same sentence? The approximate GROSS SALES value for eme is around $60-70 million over 10 years, or so. That's before Indo Govt take their share and the other costs are removed. And then there's the debt...

DK.

Nice of you to enquire after me. I would say it panned out broadly as I said in my last post (eme ended up where they could/should have been without the dispute) - although to be fair it spiked higher than I thought it would. I sold my meagre holding at .07 on the way up which in hindsight was obviously too early.

I haven't really commented so far because I'm waiting on the agreement with the loan note holders. As things stand, and if they (cln holders) get total preference over their repayments from any future divi's eme might get, then it's pretty easy to construct an argument that eme only become totally debt free in 2035.

That calculation uses $8/mmbtu (seems reasonable) and allows for all the obvious carry paybacks to nations, for Conrad historical costs, for Indonesian take on the gas sales and for repayment of eme loan note holders before eme get any cash themselves. Effectively Mako has become a "debt repayment vehicle" in that scenario.

On that basis, if it comes to pass, then that is not sustainable for eme (nor is the current price) and another way forward will have to be found as even under the current arrangement it will be mid/late 2029 before Nations have been paid off and anyone else starts to get a look in.

As I say, I'm waiting for the next loan note holder agreement before making a comment!

PS. Not sure why there are not more question marks of the valuation disparity between Conrad on ASX and Eme on AIM. Probably a threefold disparity??

It will be interesting but depends on the RNS and the debt comments - if any.

Mr H. The first tranche is $5m - not $55m!

Sort of what they hoped for - and where they should have been all along. Presumably an RNS in the morning and it will be interesting to see what the arrangement is with the loan note holders.

Mitriti,

I agree fully with what you say - I just don't wee the valuation gap disappearing to such a large extent when the muddied waterers are eventually cleared - even assuming it's positive for eme.

The other part that holds me back is this. There are 5.7 billion shares in issue. I would suggest that the vast majority now are held by people who are effectively looking to get out on a spike. On a positive, clarifying RNS. My feeling is that there are very few who here for the "long term" now. There are better fish to fry. There are no other projects. The current BoD is old, tired and pretty clueless. I'm certain they just want a clean way of getting out without a stain on their record.

So you have (imo) 3 or 4 or 5 bilion shares just waiting to get out on a spike/clarifying news. Who are going to be the buyers of those shares - prepared to pay, for example, .1p? I just don't see it - especially when precious metals and rare earths are taking most of the speculative money atm.

Get a new CEO with a new project and new money, then everything changes. But otherwise I think it's a struggle.

We'll know more in the next few days...

Maybe I'm missing something but based on Conrad valuation, why should this go up at all?

Conrad has a market cap of $75m and holds a (disputed) 25% free carry for Mako. It has no debt and huge potential with Aceh as well. So, ignoring Aceh, the market is valuing Mako deal at $3m per 1% of holding in Mako.

Best case for Empyrean (as I see it) is they manage to do a deal whereby the return to where they would have been if they had paid when they should have. So they would get a circa 2% free carry on Mako and Conrad would go down to circa 23%. The trouble is, Empyrean have a near $15m in debt to deal with as well. Combine that, with the current market cap of $3.5m, then they "need" a valuation of the best part of $20m just to justify the current s/p.

That means they have to value their share of Mako at $10m per 1% - over 3 times what the market is valuing Conrad at.

I don't see how the sums add up at this current level, let alone getting to the heady heights of .1p!!

I still hold a small number for Auld Lang Syne - but I'm still reckoning this is going to disappoint people and is deffo not an "all in" opportunity.

A quick spike maybe, but nothing else.

Why are you expecting this afternoon to be interesting John? If you're talking about the Glenfarne news, that came out on Wednesday late afternoon AK time, so was in the market - both London and New York - all of yesterday.

Don't get me wrong. I'm pleased by the developments, but it's only a building block to recovery - hopefully.

Link please. It can't be found anywhere.

TIA

When you say "any search", this is what I get:

Current Meeting Status

Official Timeline: As of January 13, 2026, Pelican Acquisition Corp. filed a registration statement with the SEC, confirming that shareholders will receive a proxy statement for an upcoming meeting.

Conflicting Speculation: While some informal sources and investor chat forums have mentioned January 20, 2026, as a potential date, these reports are often described as "nonsensical" or contradictory to the official early-January timelines originally set by the companies involved.

Most Likely Date: Formal filings and strategic updates from partner companies like 80 Mile PLC point to the merger's finalization in late January 2026, with the shareholder vote specifically scheduled for January 30, 2026.

You're link is to hundreds of pages. Can you be more specific please?

Thanks

Sorry to ask...what is relevant about the next 48 hours? I thought the PELI meeting was 30th Jan to approve the merger?

Not sure about that, but deffo an update two weeks today - give or take a day.

MP.

Ref the .8 - 1.8 quote, there is a simple explanation. The mm's start putting their quotes on the board at 7.30 in the morning. Winterflood is often first out and their quote was .8 - 1.8p. No other mm's put their prices out for about another 10 minutes, or so, so .8 - 1.80 remained the official price, although the market hadn't actually opened.

WINS currently are quoting .9 - 1.9, but obviously their offer price is irrelevant atm.

Dixon still buying. On the basis he started at 25p, it wouldn't surprise me if he was aiming for 20% and continue buying at these levels - back up to 25p again.

There is no chance that Empyrean end up with a free carry to first gas AND 8.5%.

If they had been a fully paid up partner and none of this "you haven't paid" nonsense had actually happened, the best they could have hoped for was tag along rights identical to Conrad.

Conrad (rightly or wrongly) gave up 75% of their 100% (disputed) rights for a 25% free carry. Ignoring the minor payments, Nations were happy to cover 100% of the costs in return for 75% WI.

As I see it, had Empyrean gone the distance (and they still might) they would have ended up with something a bit over 2% and a free carry. The loan notes would still have to be sorted/re-negotiated. What that total value is - is debatable.

Have a nice weekend.

Mitriti.

As you rightly say - we'll see what they actually announce. You're positive... I'm not!

Stella.

And the loan repayment of $12m and the bonus payment to the loan note holders of circa $6m gets accounted for where?

Mannan.

The same logic applies to positive ramps that are equally unbelievable. To take your higher figure of 0.4p (assuming you didn't mean 0.04p) that would imply eme receiving something in the order of $45m for their 8.5%. What do you think you know that would enable eme to get a vastly superior deal than the one Conrad have accepted? That seems far fetched to me.

Believe it or not, I'm still a small shareholder here, albeit far smaller than before as I really don't see a realistic future - just potentially a short lived spike on news which will be heavily sold into. My base case is the news will be disappointing.

You call me negative. I prefer to view it as realistic.

Problem is, there are hundreds of millions of shares held by "punters" who are waiting to get out on any spike on news. Who are going to be the buyers of these shares when the "news" (if it ever comes) is going to be the sale of their interest in Mako and therefore the company has no projects left? So you end up with a business run by three old duffers who have no interest in the longevity of the company and have the loan notes to sort out and, if they have any spare cash, are likely to get a demand from CNOOC to fend off, to the tune of $12m.

There is no future here and I suspect the Conrad quarterlies will come and go at the end of the month and no-one will be any the wiser as to what is going on.

Eme have said they are prepared to negotiate so their 8.5% has effectively already been diluted before discussions have even begun.

Possibly worth a small punt if you're quick on the sell button, but those who have said they're "all in" need their heads examined.

Just my opinion and Happy New Year!

Of the main brokers, Hargreaves, Barclays, AJ Bell, II ,IG do not allow share lending from retail accounts.

Freetrade and IB (UK trades) allow it but only as an "opt in/ opt out" service.

Trading 212 and Robinhood use it as a default.

It's not as widespread as people like to think on AIM shares.