Member Info for Pie314

Reason for SP drop is plans to to stop insurance companies from penalising loyal customers - BUT Aviva bucked this trend a long time ago! How do I know because I am a loyal customer (and a long term shareholder). THEREFORE the SP should have GONE UP today. The market will get it soon. Will also respond to dividend in April of about 20p per share.

No you look at the FACTS! A huge deposit of world class polyhalite, and significant international interest and backing got us here. If you look at the FACTS your conclusion is a dark fantasy.

The leak may have been impossible to avoid since it was being looked at by government bodies. This doesn't prove that you were wrong. It is always worth learning from any investment decision as it plays out, however almost all the pluses are still there, and the main lesson is that huge projects like this depend on our optimism, which is a good thing, but yes the danger is always loss of objectivity. IF you go forward in such a way that your (or my) objectivity has improved, then the investing strategy will, in the end, come good. Don't throw the baby out with the bath water: Half empty it if you're not sure if the baby is in there. But be gentle, even if there is panic around you.

Worth keeping faith in my opinion. Believe it or not good investing is about being objective, not cynical. Weigh up the pluses and minuses. Sirius has a lot going for it. I've been lucky enough to get some at this price, have emailed No.10. The story is far from over, and I don't believe there is a better team to take it forward, and finally the business is very solvent, so panic and be negative if you want to, but don't expect a prize for it.

On the other hand these are NOT the films expected to be blockbusters this year, especially star wars! To infinity and beyond! Spot the deliberate mistake.

Not pump and dump. Also the half million in research continues per annum plus all the remaining cash and an agm this month which will clarify the further path of more cash back to the investor or new profitable ventures by the BOD who are also significant shareholders. NOT a new company it is highly established and has already proven how well it acts in shareholder interests. 2 pounds and/or small company manoeuvrability into high profit niche to follow.

Hey I prefer a chat, not just with myself . Anyway I read my previous post and it was misleading. As previous poster stated cash at about 12 million with only 7 million new shares.

Keltickilla what are you talking about? There has been a 22 to 1 consolidation! See the heading above entitled "RNS" :)

Having done a little more research it looks very promising The wire cutting business is already up and running and there is also revenue of half a million a year ongoing which is still connected with PV and also limited silicon wafering ability is retained. At the market cap today, the company is valued at way below book value only taking account cash left. So I agree that the company is undervalued and is being treated like a start up when it looks very solid with a solid core of staff and a solid network in Germany and with very solid and trustworthy management.

Hello I've just bought in on the basis of the valuations of others and looking at accounts. Feels wierd. So what is the expected time line and are there any risks of it being below a certain SP? I might buy some more but I'm not feeling this one yet so any help appreciated!

IAG doing very well against headwinds. PE ratio is less than 5, compared to sector median of 9. Traffic growth compared to last year shows that the company is growing, and there is an active strategy to offset fuel costs.

International is the word. The middle classes are growing rapidly internationally. IAG is well placed to grow. Great long term investment. Growth won't be far off 10% this year. Great value (graham formula valuation of 1726p). Momentum should follow from this price and with a 42p dividend on the way (after tax).

Hee hee it's not up to you to decide the SP :) Especially now that it is a big boys toy (no offence).

Tesla is in production but it is not the same business model is it. And Tesla is very difficult to value. You can't really use the NPV as you can for a mine for a start. If it wasn't for the 10MTPa of agreements in place, I might think you have a point.

Different sectors, and I won't say anything about trying to predict growth with Tesla, oh I just did.

But here's the thing. This is nothing like Tesla.

yes and the type of investor will change as well.

See my posts, yes tickle at 20p is part of the shape in my plan/prediction. Just beware here. There WILL IMO be a FOMO peak coming. Then you will be in a very different situation. Noone likes being trapped in a low SP but EYES ON THE PRIZE. Do not overexpose yourself, especially with leverage, because then you cannot sustain the drops yes?

You, or some, will be selling and then buying back in at a higher price !! In some weeks.

Thanks GaiasKidney, so it could be 10 billion shares then potentially. Makes calcs easier :) I like, and agree with, the second part of the post and the $40 billion. Lets start with $25 billion shall we. Get the mine built and I believe in the BOD and suspect construction will be expedited. Look at the 5 or 10 year share price and it is reasonable to expect further peaks. I think we are in a trough now, the last one was 17p. I see temporary resistance at 18p but with help of market makers will go through quickly to a new trough of 19p and an early tickle at 20p. Have a plan, that is the key, even though it goes wrong, keep batting off the plan. Plenty of times the share price runs forward due to FOMO. THIS TIME IS WILL BE FOMO BY BIG INVESTORS. DYOR and GLTA.

In a nutshell, pension funds.

Hi Forseti and thanks for great post. I've been reading future valuations and they are very pessimistic, but yours is closer to the truth. 10 billion shares is already somewhat pessimistic I think? Puts a 20% safety factor in though, and this is back of fag packet stuff. Dividend will be more like 20p. SP will be at least £2 (certainly not £1!!). The standard $100 per ton profit is extremely pessimistic from quite a lot of research I did a while back. That will make a huge difference year to year and could potentially TRIPLE profit if gets to nearer $300 per ton. (as an aside there are some mines that can't even make a profit at that higher level whereas our mine can make a profit virtually on a dime if needs be :) What are they going to do with the profit? Either give it to us or expand Sirius minerals to further profitable ventures in which case the sky is the limit! I would suggest that an SP of £2.50 and a dividend of 20p is still very conservative, assuming "only" this mine. In other words this is one for the cheapest pension ever and therefore guess what large pension managers are coming this way as we speak now that secondary funding is in place and the "big boys" can take this seriously. All IMO DYOR. I'm sticking to my prediction of a £1 special dividend in the years ahead. You laugh at me now. This isn't Apple, but the big difference is that an incredibly good outcome is predictable in this case.

when you look at the 10 year or 5 year chart you can see that this is not the time to be selling!! Also this is not some crappy company that has very little inherent value and is only worth its most recent sales sheet. This is an incredible mine designed to be extremely efficient with a huge and valuable resource that deserves to be valued accordingly. The high beta reflects the different ways of valuing this on value, quality, growth and even momentum :) :)

for example it makes sense that this is going to be increasingly popular in portfolios of pension fund managers. This is a different company now, a different proposition, with a different risk profile. I think that the SP will go up due to the value of the mine and significant de-risking as the only really significant danger to the project has been removed.

I've been right before when I said that production may be expedited due to the quality and experience of the BOD, but not at the expense of safety. Remember that the overspend was not really an overspend but an upgrade in design. I'm also confident that further funding will not be needed. DYOR GLTA.