Member Info for picstloup

If you read the Q3 RNS you'll find FY revenue estimated at $890-915m, and operating profits for the FY to be "modestly higher" than 2021's $205m. Adding, in December, that "it expects to achieve a double-digit percentage net revenue compound annual growth rate over the medium term".

My guess is fy revenue nearing $1bn, and profit around $225-250m ($1.60-1.75/s)

Break even for Thungela, sadly, is now a long way north of $50. At 1106R/t, the figure given in December's update, that's around $65 at today's exchange rate. Presumably it will fall again if production is ramped back up to 16m/t pa, as we hope it will.

Still a stonking profit.

Sadly, the UK's is the only economy in the G7 and the G20 which is still smaller than pre-pandemic, largely thanks to a combination of Brexit, and of Johnson and his bunch of incompetent brexiteers.

Sadly, the UK is the only country in the G7 and the G20 which is still smaller than pre-pandemic, largely thanks to a combination of Brexit, and of Johnson and his bunch of incompetent brexiteers.

Not bad at all. Up from the $250/t in h1. Might see the final divi up to £3.50 or more (my average purchase price is about that).

https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets

Oh go on then, let's say ten quid

Including divis. Not bad at all. Don't suppose it will be quite as good in 2023, but even half the return would be perfectly acceptable

Not bad, behind Rio and Shell etc, but well up on the FTSE 100.

Are all today's RNSs the starting pistol for the takeover? If so it could be a very happy start to the new year.

News on the divi will come with the full year results for ye 31 December 2022, probably in March. Based on the trading update for year to end November, c£3 for the final divi is highly possible, well up on the ~93p final for 2021.

Because of the shambles in the auditing process, they can't decide on a final dividend, so it will be delayed this year.

To top it all, as they're so late in auditing, the shares are due to be suspended from Jan 3, as they'll then be in breach of FCA disclosure rules - for how long, nobody knows. The audit committee was due to meet and report in "early December": that dog didn't bark either.

Sack the chairman.

Thungela is my largest holding, so rather than add more eggs to that basket I decided to op myself down for 2000 of these just now, at £3.065. Hope they do me as well as the TGA shares have over the last 18 months.

They say it's never wrong to bank a profit, but I'll hold on for the (I think almost) inevitable take-over. It's only my 7th biggest holding, so don't feel overweight - although up 5 places in the last couple of years.

***"The strong cash generation has resulted in a net cash position of R19.8 billion on 30 November 2022"

At around £47 million to 1 billion rand = £930 million. With 134 million shares in circulation, this makes £6.90 per share that TGA is holding in CASH right now. Are my calculations correct ?***

Mostly, I think, but there has been some dilution, in particular an extra 4.18m shares for the purchase of Zibulo, so total number of shares is, or soon will be, 138m.

Just put myself down for 33918 at 21.99p. Seems very good value in view of coal averaging $250/t or more throughout 2022. Low debt as well.

On June 3, when the share price was £57, RBC cut its forecast from £55 to £47, and got it spot on within about a fortnight - and by the end of June it was under £45, having touched £60 at the end of May.

Despite my wish for the price to continue rising, some of these people are far less "dumb"and have rather more knowledge than many bulletin board contributors.

Back over £15 again (at last). Really don't understand why it fell so far, and wishing I'd topped up more when it was down at ~£12.

Back up to all time high by year end? My calculations show an EBITDA per share of about $10 or even more at current coal price and total production of 12m tonnes pa.

From 3.6% to 5.2%

It's the usual "buy the rumour, sell the news".

"Weird", incidentally.

Or not. Again.