Member Info for picstloup

Should massively help the bottom line, with Quellaveco, the world's second largest deposit, coming into production this June after $5.5bn of investment. Should produce at least 300,000 tonnes a year for the next 10 years.

https://larepublica.pe/economia/2022/04/01/quellaveco-el-peru-ofrece-actualmente-predictibilidad-y-competitividad/

And it has existing capacity and buy/build options extending production up to 2040, far longer if new capacity is exploited - eg Zibulo north shaft life extension of 10-12 years + second seam at cost of £110m producing up to 137m extra tonnes with production starting in 2026.

18-20m tonnes pa production by 2026 looks realistic, and surely they'll have sorted Transnet by then.

Even at 14mt pa, and conservative coal price of $150/t, that's EBITDA of around $1.4b pa.

Topped up again with this q's divis, plus a few extra, taking my holding up another 1.5%, and almost 40% up in 2 years. If/when the divi gets back to ~$2 pa the income will be very nice. As it is, my total divi is already 3/4s of the pre covid rate, and eps sky rocketing.

Getting bored. I've been in since privatisation. Can't complain, roughly 100% up in the last 20 years (when I bought a lot more, probably much more since 1989 and my tiny privatisation allication) and steady divis. But debt linked to inflation is going to reduce profits over the nexr couple of years, eventually feeding into the divi, so think it's time to move at least half my holding into something a bit better. Perhaps Rio, or Indivior?

The sanctions put on exporting Alrisa's diamonds should benefit de Beers (already 20% up over 2021's cycle 2). They put out this statement:

"Following President Biden’s Executive Order prohibiting the import of diamonds from Russia into the United States, De Beers Group encourages retailers to buy with confidence by engaging with their suppliers to understand the origin of their diamonds.

“Every diamond that De Beers Group sells is discovered at one of our mines in Botswana, Canada, Namibia or South Africa.

“De Beers Group is committed to working with sightholders to support the United States’ demand needs and to provide the origin and impact of every diamond we discover and sell. "

From JP Morgan. Topping up when April's ISA deposit becomes available.

Very nice first divi, payable early May

Yet another all time high, 16% up ytd and $7.25 up today alone (on a day the market fell by nearly 1%). Market clearly likes the $11.6b purchase of Allegany.

Very nice tle rise, don't really understand why - unless the falls earlier in the month were simply overdone. Topped up a little at £6.80.

Howard your figures look good to me (presumably based on 15m tonnes pa, so 1.25m per month, rather than 125k)and FOB of $54, as per the most recent figures.

The (final) dividend is based on profits for the period July-December 2021, not how much cash they currently have in the bank. There will be another (interim) dividend for Jan-June 2022 (probably payable in October) which could be quite substantial as they'll have their ZAR6bn safely in the bank.

According to Hargreaves Lansdowne: "Shareholders approved this takeover at meetings held on 8 March 2022. The takeover still needs court approval at a hearing on 29 March 2022.

If you’re still a shareholder at the end of 31 March 2022 and the takeover is approved, you’ll get 125p per share for your Air Partner plc shares. The cash will be credited to your account on or around 14 April 2022. "

The C$2.7b offer to buy the (available) rest of Oyu Tolgoi looks very generous to me (a 32% premium to Friday's price). Judging by the fall in Rio today, the market doesn't much like it either. But I'll bet the hedge fund sharks who own the rest of THR will want more.

Only £3.18 down on the day, and £3.52 of divis in the pipeline, so effectively 34p (0.6%) up. Not bad on a day the market dropped by 1.3%.

I got my first few hundred of these (then RTZ) at about £3 in the late 80s, and have been adding virtually ever since - now, fortunately, all safely tucked away from tax in my ISA and SIPP. Usually stick the divi back in to enjoy compound growth ("the 8th wonder of the world" - Keynes), but RIO is getting close to the 10% of my total portfolio threshold which, with the exception of Berkshire Hathaway, I try not to cross. Also other temptations - eg TGA, JXN, INDV - all offering potentially greater short term upside.

A month before the cash arrives to decide and anyway, as recent history shows us, a lot can happen in a month.

According to Seeking Alpha:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493460-unilever-hits-the-sweet-spot

According to BearBull at the Inveztors' Chronicle. S/he makes a good point that the directors should have played harder with Wheels Up. But thinks the deal will go through on the nod today. Still a nice profit for me, but the £1.70 BB estimates as fair value would have been a lot nicer.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2022/03/03/how-to-assess-whether-a-takeover-offer-is-good-value/

"my portfolio is starting to look like a bloodbath" - possibly a slightly insensitive simile given the literal bloodbath currently underway in Ukraine.

Not forgetting another $300m share buyback on top of the $300m announced in September and $125m in December [$725m on marcap of $4b in 9 months, plus 5.5% divis]. Screaming buy at anything under $60.

Topping up (again).

According to the prospectus TGA's average cost "freight on board" per tonne of coal was $49.90 in H1 2021 (several $ lower than the SA average). The discounted price TGA receives has since dropped from 26% to 17%, and cost savings have been made, partly offsetting inflationary pressures. TGA made a profit in H1 of 2021 of £50m on sales of 6.6m tonnes at an average price of $61. The H1 results expected "flat FOB cost per export tonne of R830 [$54 at today's exchange rate] for the full year". Wood Mackenzie states "By 2023, global export thermal coal costs are expected to have increased due to input cost inflation, averaging US$59.3/tonne. South African supply is expected to have moved up the curve to average US$60.5/tonne" (from slightly below average in 2021).

The reason it is interesting to know how many bulk carriers are loading at Richard's Bay (23% indirectly owned by TGA) is that it gives some idea as to the disruption on the Transnet rail system, and some outline of how much coal we're actually getting on board, rather than just piling up unsold.

Still good value if we assume $10-12 for 2022's divis.

Nearing two years since Anglo American bailed out Sirius investors with their 5.5p offer. At the time I was nursing losses of c£40,000, with an average of ~20p. Stuck all the takeover money and about 100% more into AAL shares at an average of £12ish. AAL now over £37 a share, so much more than wiped out my SXX losses, and with divis since then of over $5 per share on top.

And every 10 AAL shares got us 1 in TGA last year at £1.20, already worth over £6 and due to pay a divi in May of about 40p, the icing on a well iced cake, especially since I ploughed virtually all last year's divi income into TGA, mostly at around £2-£2.50 a share.

Thanks Anglo, for bailing out Sirius, keeping Woodsmith alive and making me a return of well over 4x my total investments in AAL and TGA.

The $1b a year Woodsmith will bring to AAL's bottom line in a couple of years won't make a huge difference to a company already making $20b pa in profit, but will be nice enough.
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