Member Info for Pickuzawinnah

One of two things, IMO:
A/ He was planning to have a signed agreement and could present at the Proactive event to rouse new investors in a significantly de-risked KEFI. But that agreement is not signed (they were confident it would be, so any other outcome could be described as "unforeseen") and he's ducking out because there's literally nothing to announce. Or
B/ he has unexpectedly had to jet off to meet one of the agreement backers in a last minute bit of deal jiggery-pokery and sacrificed the Proactive event in order to be able to post a happy RNS tomorrow.

There is a C/ He's having to spend the night writing a new RNS about how sorry they are that one of the signatories was not in a position to commit 9etc) for reasons beyond KEFI's control blah blah blah.
Or D/ That he's unexpectedly come down with the 'Rona or monkeypox.
Or E/ he's jetting off to Bolivia with the spoils from the recent placing, never to be seen again.

Just to be cynical about it, they're not lying if they say things like: "remains confident in its ability to achieve its plan". the accurate bit is the confidence. They cannot be accused of lying about that.
We don't know the full extent of what's happening behind the scenes - the Ethiopian government could have been given a more generous financial offer for future licences from a competitor. Their approach to the situation stinks IMO; I never like the position of a deadline when trying to get signatures - it puts you over a barrel from a negotiating point of view.
Anyway, that said, I am hopeful that the next 30 hours will see the agreement in place and the SP soaring back up. I did not expect to be underwater at this point.

The message has been clear that it's Q1/Q2. So I would very much set expectations that it will be Q2, and very probably the latter half of Q2. Plans work until they meet the real world and the real world never ever ever helps accelerate a project.
Anticipate lots of sweaty anxiety in April when there's no RNS confirming it's begun, and the likes of C2PO pop up to gloat about the SP dropping from 1.6p to 1.2p (etc).

That's a big step forward - not only confirmed shipping grades, but IOCA's discussions with a number of interested parties with support for "guaranteed purchase of the product from the start of mining to further de-risk the project".
That, for me, is the key thing.
Nothing in mining is ever risk free, but this is looking increasingly positive - like: "time to load up" positive.

I don't hold ZNWD, but have watched from the sidelines for a long time. Seems low value presumably because cash generation isn't imminent or even close. But great potential here, and pleasing to see today's upward shift. Any idea what's behind it ? Will it sustain ?

Interesting how both ONC and IQAI today dropped by almost identical percentages. In fact both appear to have almost identical charts over the last 6 months and fallen by the same amount (ie: about a 35% drop over 6 months).
Do recessions really mean a lower chance of people needing tremendously accurate, lower cost cancer diagnoses and treatments ? Didn't think so. Be prepared for IQAI (and ONC) to recover rapidly, on any R&D progress, but mainly on any commercial progress.

Firstly, they're only "new lows" if you're only counting the last 24 months. But I kind of get what you're saying: better buying opportunities than have existed for 2 years.
Secondly - and I appreciate this may reverse at any point - it's interesting to note the iron ore price has stayed remarkably consistent in the same 2-yr window. Average price of about $140p/t with a 3-month spike above $165, and a 3-month drop below $120. Fluctuations, yes. But over a wider view, it's spent a couple of years at a level making our DSO highly viable. Average of $60 profit per ton starting late Spring 2023 ? Roughly 1M tons mined per year ? Current MCAP of £30M ?

So, while the SP at UFO may have fallen today in line with the market turbulence, I don't think there's much to fear if your planning horizons are 1-yr + into the future.

That's conjecture, but it's possible. Just as it's possible KEFI will be bought. Or That the funding agreement will be signed in the next 2 weeks. Frankly I don't give a monkey's, because I don't plan to sell in the next month.

It wouldn't be an unlikely scenario (except for the optimistic £-sign in your post). It's a great tech, and could be picked up for relative peanuts compared to the cost of creating a comparable system outside of patent/copyright. There could be a takeover surfacing one day. In the meantime, news on actual sales will be very welcome.
Trek's views are to be respected here.
Incidentally, anyone know roughly how long the gap is likely to be between applying for approval and it being granted (assuming it IS granted) ?

@carpfisher - I know exactly what you mean. The overwhelming potential for me in UFO is the iron ore, the volume/value of which has been all but defined. But everyone gets excited about the price of Silver and its impact on the UFO SP. Iron ore - as you point out - has leapt. SP has faded.
Obviously I'm seeing it wrong otherwise someone would have swooped in on a JV or even a full acquisition by now since the MCAP is so small.

Remember one of the big banks - Goldman ? Merrill ? - about 6-to-9 months ago confidently asserting that iron would slide back to $90 and stay there ? It's been solidly above $140 per ton for over 2 months now.
Silver is 10% up on its January lull, with most expecting inflation to drive gold and silver significantly higher.
And palladium/rhodium in high demand. UFO just can't progress its projects quickly enough. Great year ahead.

Nine posts starting at 10pm and finishing precisely at 10:30.
My guess is that steveomining doesn't watch the News at Ten.

Good news today reflected (for once) in a positive market response. So we have action in Brockman/Hancook, Munni Munni, Elizabeth Hills, and Donovan. That could be a high frequency of news in 2022/23, but at a cost. Later in the year, I would love to see some kind of borrowing (even with interest rates under pressure to rise) because that would suggest to me a sense of confidence in the future income and value.
Good luck Aliens.

Does feel like a case of when, not if.
TXP sits in good company with a couple of my other "coming to the boil soon" shares.
Thanks for the analytics, Eeyore2.

Great summary, PP - thank you.
I look forward to a very positive year ahead now the conflict in Ethiopia is largely resolved, funding lined up, and price of precious metals is holding high.

Going to need it, to cover the cost of inflation ! :)

Agreed it's not news as in "wow, that's a blinder !" (eg: bonanza silver grades a couple of months ago). But it is news in terms of risk reduction (deal done) and potential for future RNS blinders.
Wouldn't have expected a major rise today, but it increases the potential for major rises in 2022/23. Another step in the right direction.
Good luck, fellow Aliens.

Definitely one of the weirder days' action I've seen.
Anyone know of a three-letter company abbreviation similar to"N4P" that the mysterious trader might have mistakenly used, and then sold out on discovering their mistake ?

It's not as simple as just a few words on a page. Alien is an exploration company. There are great riches to production, and may be simple at Hancook/Sirius compared to the average. But still requires a bit of a pivot as a business, hiring new expertise or outsourcing, new commercial arrangements, inventory and capital equipment, etc.
So, there is a lot to weigh up; maybe a JV partner with the right terms gives Alien sufficient income for ten years to fund licences and boots on the ground for a lot more lucrative exploration. All without risk exposure of a new business model.

I hope you're right TLW. I am annoyed at myself for impatiently buying just after the recent placing. I knew I should have waited.
Another 6-18 months should reap significant increase in MCAP as the commercials start to increase. Just needs a couple of updates on sales and partnerships. And patience.

I may not always share the same opinion as you, wents. But this time I totally agree. There really is a lot of rubbish posted as fact on this - and other - board(s).

But recently the RNSs here have lined up consistently positive. There's momentum and a continual reduction in risk.
I believe (my opinion, not stated as fact !) that we'll see a modest but solid rise this year to the mid 1s - or thereabouts. With many variables in place (JV on Hancook ? Liz Hills samples ? Munni viability ? Donovan proven good or duff) the outlook for 2023 could be in a broad range from low 2s to 5 or 6p or even more. That's just on the basis of MCAP reflecting fair value according to those variables.
The key will be the ability to generate profit as the means to fund further operations and exploration.
Good luck everyone.

That's 70M per year. Over ten years.
So, rethink your sums