Member Info for pickedpeck

The only question I have is why twitter and not an RNS? Surely this merits releasing via regulated news?

Of course they are going to need cash. They don't have the money at hand to build a mine, nor should they. Why would they be sat on a huge cash pile with no certainty about whether they could get a return from it?

I suppose they could hand out hammers and picks and pit helmets to share holders instead of raising cash?

1 ton of rock is surprisingly small. about 12-13 cu ft so around 3ft x 2ft x 2ft. Easy fit in the boot of your car! Might be tricky driving with it, or getting it back out once thrown in mind...

Just taken my holding up a bit to a nice round number. I can see this going back to historic highs and beyond over the summer. £7m mkt cap today, if they really do find those crazy grades in bulk then this could go an awful lot higher.

$42.5m is around the market cap at 12p. There is the larger and faster growing other part of the business which will be left post disposal.

Not too long ago the share price was 50p, inside the last two years it was 30p.

Taking off the 1/3rd of the company that is being sold for 12p a share, the remainder should be valued somewhere around 24p.

It is also possible that this is the first of two separate sales, the US part of the company could also be sold probably at a higher multiple, realising the 24p or more for shareholders.

Basically this still has a lot of up to go from 12p based on this deal. The price pre deal was nonsensical and shows the failure of the London market rather than anything to do with the company.

Notrex - your whining like a spoilt brat is getting tiresome. You've said nothing new in 2 days other than throw insults at everyone that disagrees with you. I don't often filter posters on LSE but you've just made the list, you can't argue with stupid.

Terry. This is the basic question:

The share price BEFORE yesterday was down 70% or so from its peak with the dividend until that point held in place. The dividend plainly was not helping support the share price.

What should the company have done?

a - Continued to pay out almost all profits as dividend regardless of the continued share price decline, keeping to the plan that was not working.

b - Change plan as almost certainly directed by major holders to cut the dividend, reduce debt, and invest profits for capital growth?

I am calm, you've put a smile on my face, its fun to imagine your thought processes, or rather lack of it.

You do know these boards are not only a restricted play pen for the hard of thinking?

Ha... The idea I am paid to disagree with you is hilarious. Where do you think these jobs get advertised? You really think this BB is important enough for anyone to pay for content?

You still can't see any positives, maybe your bottom lip being stuck out so far is the problem? Yes the dividend has been cut. That seems to be the end of the list of negatives.

Zero proof George. Other than you saying it repeatedly like a demented loon there is zero evidence to suggest what you say is true. Feel free to report it to the FCA or anyone else you think may listen.

I was wondering when you would show your shameful face again George. I notice you didn't answer last night after throwing the liar accusation around, I think you're only here as you enjoy the wind up nothing else.

Notrex, I am perfectly calm, possibly slightly less tolerant of nonsense than usual. Just you're wiffling on like a kid that's dropped his ice cream.

If you can't come up with a sensible suggestion of what the company should have done stop complaining about what they have done. Obviously sticking with the dividend wasn't working for anyone in the end, at least accept that.

Terry - No one cares you're upset. In the scale of things, you being upset doesn't really matter.

Put your thinking cap on and try and reason this through.

1. Do you really think Rusty and the board sprang this on their major investors yesterday?

2. Has being listed in London really helped the company in the last 18 months?

3. Are E&P companies more highly valued in NY?

4. Has holding probably the highest dividend on the market helped or hindered the share price?

5. Does the share price move the day of the results based on institutions instantly piling in, or do they take a while to analyse and digest results?

6. How long does it take to update broker recommendations?

7. How many PIs really thought 30% dividend was here to stay?

8. Who is the audience Rusty and the board are playing to? You or someone else slightly more important?

9. Trust in any executive is about trusting them to do the right thing for value of the company, not you as an individual investor.

10. There are probably loads more points to make, but none of this is going in anyway so why bother?

Notrex, I expect he is absolutely gutted about losing your trust, but if it brings institutional investors to the table I think maybe he will get over it pretty quickly.

He is the CEO of a FTSE company not a boy scout leader. Talking about trust sets you out as at best naïve, but more likely just a bit dim.

You are not the stakeholders he or any other FTSE CEO should give a hoot about. We as private investors are riding on the coat tails of the institutions, how do you think they will have taken this change in strategy?

The share price has dropped because a number of investors will have sold on the basis of the dividend being reduced. Those that are so piossed off here for a start. It will take a few days to work through and settle down.

Rusty's strategy was not working, something had to change. It is not unreasonable to change direction. PIs are not even close to a majority here, the shareholders that will have driven this change are the institutional ones, and yes they were almost certainly not only consulted but likely pushing for it.

In August 2022 the share price was £28 in new money. Since then despite holding the dividends and improving operational performance the share price has fallen 69%.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Holding the dividends has led inexorably to a collapse in the share price.

Clued - I think Rusty and others may look at it the other way, that the UK price is acting as a millstone around the company's share price neck. Why keep the UK listing exactly? UK Retail and Institutional investors walked the price down to where it is now despite extraordinary dividends, company growth and improved operating performance.

We talk about Rusty's promises, but nowhere near enough investors valued that model enough to justify keeping it.

Do you read any of the gas market publications? Do you really think we are stuck with sub $2 gas indefinitely?

Read this as a primer. https://primexbt.com/for-traders/natural-gas-price-prediction-forecast/

Or you could just look at futures prices, you can buy futures contracts out past 2030 now.

I'd be delighted if they delisted from the UK.

The UK market is screwed with huge ongoing capital outflows. E&P companies are valued much more highly in the US, they never will be here. No major UK institutions are going to plough large amounts of capital into a US based gas operator via the London market. It's just not going to happen, that means no share price recovery via London no matter what the company does.

I would have thought the answers to your questions were pretty obvious.

Institutions will have told Rusty to cut the dividend and grow the capital. That's what they want to invest in. Distributing near 100% of profit as dividends inherently prevents capital growth. The profitability of the company is improving, to total shareholder return should be improved, just not in the form of dividends.

I also don't think we will see huge buy backs. We may see some, but I expect this move is more about creating funding for growth through acquisitions.

Buying wells is also a pretty obvious thing to do for a gas company trying to grow. The gas price will inevitably recover, it always does. The best time to buy assets is when they are available cheaply rather than at the top of the market. Consolidation always happens after an El Nino as companies that are unhedged get squeezed by the price drop caused by the warmer weather. The dividend cut is absolutely aimed squarely at funding acquisitions, yesterday's will just be the first.

I think this is a good love to help the share price recover, it is a better value strategy and will be regarded as such by institutions. Having a peg in the ground for dividends for the next three years gives large investors certainty.

It will take 3 days before this all shakes out. I'd expect the share price to start drifting upwards next week, led by the US.

At some point the fact that they have just become a much more conventional profit making business, retaining most of their income to grow capital, will cause a penny or two to drop. Their ESG credentials are now more than defensible, they are reducing debt, they have lowered costs and increased margins. A bunch of PIs that were holding this because of the extraordinary dividend should not set the business strategy, whether we collectively like it or not.

None of the institutions holding this would want to be holding an enormous outlier, they couldn't categorise it as there was nothing else quite like it.

Its as simple as this. The basic numbers of the company are now very good, it's not only not gong bust but it's making good profits in a hard environment and doing so whilst growing a whole new business model.

I bought more yesterday, and may buy again over the next few days.

Nope it's just you. Have you said something nasty about them?

:)