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Crypto..

Share price depends entirely on investor sentiment. All the miserable posts here since the raise hardly reassure new or existing investors about putting money in do they? So far today we have had George called basically a fraudster, the share a falling knife, and some whinges about endless dilution.

The reality is they are always going to raise cash after each stage in the development is passed, because that's when the iis putting the money up are satisfied enough to do so.

What we should all hope is that new and existing investors see the progress for what it is, an increase in the probability of success and corresponding overall value increase of the company. But unless someone sees that and wants to buy shares because of it then the share price is going nowhere.

ALBA is small enough for the price to be influenced by BB posts. A high percentage of the investor community is likely reading these boards. I'm not saying we all have to be happy clappers, but some realism has to set in at some point.

George doesn't set the share price, I know that may seem to not be the case, but he is hostage to the investors who are putting the money up. All he and the rest of the team can do is the list of exercises that enable them to raise the next round of money. Private investors are not going to fund this, neither are the management team. Institutional investors who are expected to put their hands in their pockets for millions will want some certainty about what they are going to get back.

So yes, in order to raise the cash to process waste tips the company will have show there is sufficient gold in the waste tips to generate a return. That means pitting and lab samples. If that comes back positive then you can expect a raise to fund processing the waste tips.

I've no idea how rich George is. When I was last working as an exec for a big co that was issuing shares I was roundly criticised for not buying in. I just didn't have the spare cash, that was the end of the story as far as I was concerned.

This is not a falling knife or anything like one. This is a speculative investment.

Those stages I put in the message below, passing each one successfully adds to the enterprise value and reduces risk.

For example proving 'X' number of ounces of gold in place makes investing further lower risk than having no clue how much gold is down there. Proven resources are worth more than wishful thinking.

Similarly a mine that is dewatered and has shown gold to be present at localised high grades is worth more than a dead mine full of water.

What exactly are you expecting to happen?

The thing is your investment is worth what it is worth today, and today is the day you have to make a decision whether you think it will go up or down in future. If you think it will go down why wouldn't you sell? If you think it will go up why wouldn't you hold or sell more?

The price you paid is nothing more than an emotional constraint, whether you are up or down is completely irrelevant to whether the investment will be worth more or less in future.

Personally I think this will be worth more in future, and have bought more as a result. If I thought there was only down from here I would have sold not bought. What I paid for my first tranche of shares doesn't matter a hoot in all that.

There is a lot of whinging here about raises and no instant price gratification. So I thought I might post a thread to help set some expectations as there is a lot more 'stuff' going to happen before we (maybe, possibly) arrive in the promised land of Clogau production.

1. Raises

Alba does not have any income. Their only realistic way of paying for day to day operations plus any new activity is via issuing new shares in rounds of raises. The approach they are taking to raising money is piecemeal, that is possibly several times a year they will need to issue shares. The alternative is that they take a wild assed guess on the whole project funding and try and raise it all in one go. They have literally zero chance of succeeding with that whilst extensive regulatory barriers remain, and the ore body remains unproven in value.

2. Proving the ore body

Sampling that is happening now will show that some gold is present. However extensive and expensive drilling will likely be necessary if they need to prove the in place resources in order to raise a proper level of capital. The only way to pay for that drilling program is #1 above

3. Planning Permission

Assuming they find enough gold to be worth their while reopening the mine, and it is not guaranteed they will no matter how hopeful we all are, they will have to apply for planning permission to do so. Given how long it took to get permission to dewater the lower levels, we can't expect this process to be quick, and possibly not even successful without appeal. Locals may protest about increased traffic, noise, blasting, displaced bats, otters with too much water to swim in, or even that George doesn't speak good enough Welsh.

4. Funding

Once they have a proven resource, and all regulatory approvals to reopen the mine, they will need to buy mining equipment and employ miners. That will mean a more serious level of #1 than before, likely to involve raising millions rather than thousands. Depending on how they approach this, the minimum level would be maybe £5m, but could be as much as £15-20m. I can't see it being more as the mine is already there, they don't have to sink shafts or build access roads etc. It will all be about extraction and processing machinery which will probably be relatively small scale.

5. Commissioning Opex

Even when all the kit is bought, there is a period between buying all the stuff and getting it all working. That may last 6 months to a year, and be subject to regulatory oversight. Employing lots of people and having lots of kit lying around before you actually start generating much money is expensive. Expect another £5m at least needing to be raised.

So in terms of time from here to a working mine I'd guess a minimum of 3 years. In terms of money needing to be spent, as a guess I would say a minimum of £15m and possibly up to £30m to get the mine back in action.

The trick is that the underlying enterprise value should increase as each stage abo

Take it out now if that's how you feel. If you think it will only go backwards why are you still here?

If you no longer believe in the reason you invested then stop investing, simple really.

The new shares are not on the market yet. I wouldn't expect a company that has taken up the placing to short sell a week in advance.

"Application will be made for the new ordinary shares to be admitted to trading on AIM ("Admission"). It is expected that Admission of the new ordinary shares will become effective at 8.00 a.m. on or around 5 April 2024."

Placing shares have not been admitted yet have they?

£1753 per ounce , £5.61m mkt cap = 3200oz , raise is £380,000, 217oz.

At the grades published the other day of 4oz per ton of rock, the whole mkt cap of the company translates as 800t of rock to mine and process. Of course that would be if mining and processing was free....

Market makers buying their own shares @ 0.8 , they are allowed to do this to make the market active but gives a properly skewed view of today's prices. The fall is actually much higher than the numbers shown given we can buy sub 0.7p

Real price is over 30% down.

Even so not many actual sells going through, the market makers must have a large sell order on hand to keep the price down here against a lot of buying.

That 3.4m that just went through was me, my third trade of the day. Yes it was a buy. I've double my holding here this week.

I'd expect to see treble that at some point this year. It spiked that high last year on less progress.

Ahh... That would explain today's rise maybe. Just checked ii, it is in my account too, weirdly wasn't first thing.

Isn't payment day tomorrow? I thought you would receive it on Tuesday after the bank holidays.

Don't talk nonsense either. Spike pulled in traders who may wander off. The amount of cash being raised still matches the mkt cap of the whole company for only 1/3 of revenue, and less than 10% of growth.

Don't get distracted by gloomy traders, value here is still be be realised.

Saigonsally, £380k is a tidy raise unsecured. Yes in the scale of opening up the mine again it's probably less than 5% of what's needed, but at this stage it should pay for a number of activities over the coming months.

If BHP was raising this it wouldn't cover their toilet roll budget, but ALBA is a tiny company so this on its own would be more than a notifiable holding.

Its all about perspective.

While we are on that topic, I do wonder what exact stages this will have to go through. Normally we would be talking about a PFS / DFS to raise mine finance, but that seems incongruous here. Alba don't have to sink new mine shafts, they just have to find the money for mining and refining equipment, and to fund the necessary staff to use it. It's possible their total finance needs could be sub £10m, or even lower.

Tygra - horse sh*t. Nothing in your post makes sense let alone rings true.

Tell us, how do you develop a mine without money?

a - place shares

b - raise unsecured debt.

c - fail

Which option would you have them pursue?

No. They are aged corporate finamce weeks ago but likely conditional on reporting acceptable grades. Do you think a lender is going to hamd over money at total risk? The price will have also been agreed pre news spike. It's a lenders market, put yourself in their shoes... Oh wait, you are. Woudl you buy more shares at the price they have offered given the latest assay grades? I have and will buy more.

Hands up anyone that has actually raised money for a business? How about a business preincome?

Just bought another 1.5m at 0.0688. Crazy price given the potential now.

Oh and another thing, of course they are going to raise after good news. They get a better price from corporate finance off the back of it. In fact they are probably ONLY able to raise after good news, or would you rather they raised at a lower price without the news?

Have any of you ever invested in mining before? Where exactly do you think the money comes from pre-production? Every activity has a cost.

So the raise is at a price lower than I would have hoped, 7.5 would have been better than 6.5, but is always going to happen at a big discount to the open market otherwise the company stumping up the money for the placing would just buy on the market.

The good news is the numbers are starting to look more serious, £380,000 is a tidy raise.

To build out a full scale mine this company will have to raise millions, not a few hundred thousand. There will be bigger placing down the line, and potentially open offers too.

If you're a big enough idiot to think raises are not the way to do this then come up with another way the company can pay staff, labs, geophys surveys, security, buy equipment, pay licenses and so on.