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Tui said it expects summer trading this year to return to "normal". Up 10%.

Meanwhile, Saga said...nothing. Down 3%.

SP holding up well. On Barclays, 10p to buy 50,000, 9.1p to sell, mid-price 9.55p.

The plaintiff wasn't an investor in the AA. The opposite. The AA invested in them.

“Hospitals have already been forced to cancel tens of thousands of operations and NHS chiefs fear things will only get worse”.

Daily Mail, wait for it….6/1/18!

In other words, we’ve heard it all before…but no one has ever advocated smashing the economy to smithereens.

It's a media-induced nightmare.

In Saga's view, there is absolutely no reason why cruising should not restart this spring.

It's only government idiocy, that prefers cramped aeroplanes to the highly controlled environment of a Saga cruise ship, that might get in the way.

Rox - nice one, but isn't it a bit early for April fools?

Management's shareholdings are certainly a factor, as are their personal circumstances. For example, at around 63, Mr Dunn may be looking to retire - or not. Even with a takeover at 50p he could walk away this year with probably around £30m (after tax), which he may consider to be more than enough to see him out! A bird in the hand, and all that...

Whatever happens, I'm sure there's good money to be made from this share from its current level.

Hi ismalia. Yes, I think a sell off of DX is a distinct possibility, and as soon as some time this year.

The senior management are turnaround specialists who at the outset probably envisaged selling it off this year or next.

They are heavily incentivised through a Performance Share Scheme, where awards are linked to SP performance (se p 40 of the Annual Report). This may have a bearing on the timing of any sell off, considering the following points.

Around 65% of the maximum awards of shares have already vested (based on a guesstimated average SP during 12/20 of 27.5p), ie they can now opt to take those shares. They can bump this up to 100% if the average SP reaches 40p during 12/21.

However, if the company is sold off before 12/21, the awards are likely to vest early, ie they’d still get 100% of their awards provided the SP has reached 40p by the time of the sell off.

Conclusion: once the SP crosses the 40p threshold, they can sell off the company without losing any of their share options.

So will the company be sold off this summer? And at what price? As PIs we won’t have much say, of course, but long term holders who came close to losing their shirt can at least be extremely grateful for the remarkable recovery.

ismalia - I broadly agree with you. One way of looking at it as follows:

At the AGM update, they said they were expecting materially better results for 20/21 than “current market expectations”.

Adjusted PBT for 19/20 was about £2m, so I’m guessing market expectations for 20/21 were £5m.

In view of the high operational gearing, and the continuing high demand for home delivery, a material improvement could now mean adjusted PBT of £10m, or adjusted EPS of 1.4p (after 20% tax).

Trailing P/E of 20 (as for Royal Mail) gives an SP of 28p. But DX is in growth mode, and is set to grow more rapidly than RMG, so should command a PE of 30, say, giving an SP of 42p.

But if forecast adjusted EPS for 21/22 is 2p (conservative), then assuming a forward PE of 30, this would imply an SP of 60p by this summer, perhaps after the announcement of prelims for 20/21.

I'd also go with 40p, but with the possibility of a merger in 2021 valuing Trak at 50p - 100p.

KBYK - I'll second that. It's been a long wait, but I have a feeling 2021 will be our year!

"AstraZeneca say they can deliver 2million doses a week - as regulators recommend 12 weeks between jabs".

So all 2million odd over 80's vaccinated by Easter.

Average age of those dying of Covid: 83 years, so it's all over bar the shouting by Easter.

What better way to celebrate than go on a Saga cruise!

CRU appears to have been put off its stroke today by the long 4.5 day break, though to its credit it did hold its own.

It'll only be a matter of time before it regains the momentum it found on Xmas eve.

The only possible short-term snag is if Miton try to sell off their remaining 7%.

At 16.6p, looks like buys. It's currently 16.9p to buy, 16.25p to sell.

Correction - we have a trade! Someone has just splashed out £242.41!

So far today, this is the only share as far as I can see with absolutely no trades!

Not much to look forward to at the moment....

Possibly a TU in a month or so?

Also, if the AA deal goes through mid-Jan, that would secure its future under new owners who are keen to invest in technology, and be good news for Trak therefore.

DeliciousMuffins - how much of a decline in insurance claims are you assuming for Saga?

I'm also hopeful of a special dividend of say 5p mid-2021.

No harm writing to the board, but I suspect they would need specialist plant to manufacture pharmaceutical grade syringes.

Banbury/rupans - I'm no insurance specialist, but I do think I'm in the right ballpark. The benefit of reduced claims obviously cannot be greater than the annual claims cost, which I'm assuming to be £57m (= the cost of claims for 19/20). Even if the reduction in 20/21 were 50%, this would "only" be a £30m benefit. I'm assuming a £20m benefit.

But I'd rather you were right, Banbury, with your "£100m", because we'd then be talking SP of £5 - £10.

Anyway, no point speculating further at this point, all will become clear on 26 Jan at 7am!

...after ministers pinpointed the 15million people to vaccinate to end the cycle of lockdowns, with Oxford's jab due to be approved Monday and rolled out within a week" (Mail on Sunday).