Member Info for Pianista

The important thing is the actual trading performance to date. As always with Halfords, despite the favourable cold winter that we are having, they'll no doubt express caution about the outlook given Covid, but the market can make its own mind up about that. In fact it is generally looking beyond Covid now.

Up till now, RDH has lost nothing by not making a full bid, because he’s paid around £2.70 per share so far, and he could pick up more shares for less than that at the moment.

The problem is though, being an insider, he’d need to wait probably till April to buy any more shares or make a bid, by which time things should be looking much rosier for the company: with a definite date for cruising, the SP should at least double.

So if he did decide to make a bid in the summer, say, it’d have to be for £6 or £7 at least. Assuming he can afford the £600m or £700m required, many newbies would no doubt be happy with this, but long-term holders hoping to recover their losses or, having averaged down, are dreaming of multi-bagging, would be disappointed.

Sold and leased back in 2/19.

The volume's about right too.

It only happened yesterday. Let's see if there's an RNs in the next day or so.

Unless it's the exercise of share options, which I've been expecting...

That would tie in with the 28p price.

85m = 15% of the company. Can only be Gatemore unloading again? Seems odd, as is the 28p price, and the way the market has shrugged it off today.

Today's high was 303.5p it seems, so it got above £3 quicker than I expected. Shame it didn't hold. But as long as there are no nasty surprises in the update, it should soon be back above £3.

"merely burning that money we have raised" (Poker)

I don't think keeping the company afloat till cruising restarts is a bad use of the money!

(Just as long as cruising DOES restart!).

We seem to be on course to vaccinate all over 70s by mid-Feb, so an Easter restart looks feasible, but a further delay of a month or two would not be fatal.

I agree, nothing more than profit taking.

After its meteoric rise in the last couple of months, it was bound to happen at some point.

People will start to pile in again when they realise that another positive TU is only a few weeks away.

It looks increasingly likely that this will be voted through next Thursday, which will be good news for both the AA and for Trak.

Extracts of interest from the Prospectus:

“The new owners will carry out a full evaluation of the ongoing digital and technological transformation of the AA business, and the significant technology platform migrations that AA management have been pursuing over the past few years.

They will also focus on possible cost efficiencies across the whole of the AA’s business, in particular those that could be enabled by the AA’s ongoing digital and technological transformation.

The AA Directors believe that ongoing investment in its digital platform, including the AA app, will continue to improve members’ and customers’ experience and help nurture further loyalty to the AA brand.

The AA Directors believe that…the equity injection will…provide greater flexibility to invest in the business and ensure a long and healthy future for the AA Group…and enhanced long term security to the AA and its other stakeholders, including customers, BUSINESS PARTNERS, employees, regulators, other investors and members of its pension scheme, thus enabling this leading British company to secure its future and continue to prosper.

The Consortium intends to inject additional funds…to provide it with the operational freedom to drive the business forward, to better serve its customers and capitalise on its considerable strengths.

The Consortium believes that the AA needs committed, long-term owners to support the growth of the business and to invest in critical areas such as IT transformation which in turn, will generate new and better opportunities for customers”.

This should give Smart Breakdown, and hence Trak, a shot in the arm. Let’s hope the new owners get on with it!

"B&M boss gives himself £30million bonus due to soaring Christmas sales as retailer benefits from 'essential' lockdown status."

I wonder what Xmas sales benefit Halfords will be reporting next week.

Yes, you could sell today at a measly 15p, so mid price is 15.7p, not 16.5p as shown above.

So not a happy new year for Trakkies...so far...

"Everybody is still “simply” dividing (or multiplying) by 15 which is ridiculous IMO so when I see this I flag it (and always will)." (Rox)

It depends what you are trying to do.

For example, the shares closed today at 255p. If there hadn’t been a 15 for 1 share consolidation, they would obviously have closed at 255p/15 = 17p. This is all that interests some people.

What price the 17p (and therefore the 255p) equates to pre-capital raise is another matter…as is what a 33p offer pre-capital raise would equate to now...

Only extremely thick ones.

I'm sure, as a result of the £140m capital raise, the company could keep its head above water all year even without any cruising, but the severability of the underwriting business nevertheless provides a useful safety net.

Its disposal would be a useful alternative to any further capital raise, and having contributed PBT of £40m-odd last year, £80m-odd the year before, I would think it should enable Saga's £600m-odd of debt to be repaid.

The immediate loss of underwriting profits would leave a hole to fill, of course, but if Sir Roger's ambitious plans for the company come off, that wouldn't ultimately be a problem.

The bottom line is that the company has options at its disposal to keep going for the foreseeable future come what may, which should give the company plenty of breathing space to reposition itself for long-term growth. This should give investors comfort and underpin the SP, while they await the trading update due on 26/1.

Share has come alive again today. This site has it closing at 9.5p, but with bid 10p and ask 11p, shouldn't that be 10.5p? ie 10% up on yesterday. This is getting interesting...

Well, the market hasn't been spooked by the RNS, the opposite if anything. It must take the view that that Sir Roger is already having an effect, plus the fact that it's just good to hear from him.

But then the shares are currently at rock bottom - 15p in old money - so the only way ought to be up, however bleak things are looking for the country in the short term.

What we desperately need right now is for the country to be put on a war footing, and aggressively roll out the vaccines 24/7. "War footing not pussyfooting!", as Churchill might have put it.

Halfords is not affected.

Also a trading update, covering Xmas trading, is due on 14/1/21.

Together, these ought to get the SP back to £3 and beyond.

Great post Bigbaddaz. Nice to see some positivity on a down day. I would just add that it need not be a prerequisite to the recommencement of cruising that everyone has been vaccinated. It’s not 100% effective anyway. Given Saga’s strict protocols, as long as a reasonable proportion of the over 50s have had it, that should be sufficient.