Member Info for Pianista

JoeSoap - what are you saying is a no brainer?

With today's news, particularly regarding definite sailing dates, the SP should have really taken off, but didn't.

Is the market concerned that compulsory vaccination will backfire on Saga? There is a fair bit of negative comment about it on social media from potential guests, despite the favourable market research Saga apparently did. Many people think it is draconian - I do have some sympathy with that view - and won't ultimately be legally enforceable.

Compulsory vaccination will certainly put off some people from booking a cruise. But also, isn't it unnecessary really, because can't the minority of unvaccinated guests just take out insurance to have themselves repatriated in the increasingly unlikely event of their becoming infected on board (if the Saga travel insurance does not already cover that, which I think it does)? And such people present no greater risk to others than any vaccinated person who is carrying the virus (as far as is known at present).

Even with two jabs, it's not 100% effective. There will always be a risk of someone being taken ill with Covid.

If the dates are definite, that should give a shot in the arm for the SP (even though the policy re vaccination may lose some guests, ie those who are refusing to have a jab).

It's odd therefore that it wasn't reported via RNS (as I'm sure Carnival would have done). It's also odd that there's no mention of any government involvement in the decision either.

What may have been putting a temporary brake on the SP, despite a fantastic update last week, is market uncertainty over the effect of the lockdown on the amount of vehicle use. As HFD said in the update:

“The scale and extent of this lockdown will inevitably impact demand for our motoring products and services, with fewer car journeys being made across the UK…although we currently anticipate a less severe impact on motoring demand relative to the spring lockdown”.

Indeed, according to the RAC, the number of cars on the road during the current national lockdown has not fallen at the same rates seen during the first lockdown in March last year.

Moreover, Covid cases are at last dropping fast, and vaccination is also going very well, so full lockdown is unlikely to be continue beyond early March.

It won’t take long for the market to cotton on to this encouraging outlook, whereupon the SP should resume its upward trajectory, á la PETS!?

Interesting fact: the projected £9m of cash following disposal is equivalent to 10.5p per share, coincidentally the current SP!

...following a General Meeting on 11 Feb.

This will leave the group with nearly £9m cash.

"The Board will conduct a review to determine the most advantageous route to deliver shareholder value".

I'd expect a fair chunk of the cash to be returned to shareholders. I wonder if that could happen before the end of the tax year even.

Not sure if Market Screener is completely accurate, eg Ron Series' purchase of 95k was per RNS on 18/9/20.

Thanks portswigger. So Gatemore sold 40m shares, which together with the Lombard 30m purchase accounts for 70m of the c85m trades listed on this website on that high turnover day recently. The trade price shown on this website was only 28p, when the SP was in the mid 30s.

Seems odd that Gatemore are again unloading, given that a likely positive update is due shortly. But they probably have plenty of other uses for the money (lots of bargains out there at the moment), and in any case they remain very substantial holders.

portswigger - how did you find out about Gatemore? There's no RNS on the DX website.

BARCLAYS RAISES CHEMRING TO 'OVERWEIGHT' ('EQUAL WEIGHT') - TARGET 380 (250) PENCE

They took their time!!

You're asking someone to predict the unpredictable.

If you believe in Saga, carry on holding. If you don't, get out.

Great news, the takeover of the AA has just been voted through.

Into the 3's at 2.15pm...and holding.

It's now a 6-bagger for those who were brave enough to buy when it briefly touched 50p last March (I missed that myself).

Couldn't ask for more from the update really.

Enough to take us back above £3 - and stay there this time!

Yes, into the unknown! The market's in the same boat: there was a very low turnover in HFD today, just 0.2% of the share capital changed hands. Tomorrow should make up for it though!

The latest on Covid is that cases are at last falling from their peak, and that the current lockdown is having an effect. This should damp down the clamour for tighter restrictions from troublemakers in the media, and help the market generally get off to a positive start tomorrow.

HFD is not purely "click and collect", it's fully open as an essential retailer. There's just a bit more of a restriction on numbers entering, if branches I have visited in the South East are anything to go on.

Good news about Odier, but it doesn't explain all of the 85m-odd recent trades.

Shaftesbury was definitely retained as one of their locations, presumably for those who didn't or couldn't relocate to Coleshill. Must be costing a few hundred K pa in rent. Seems a bit extravagant, all the more so with Covid (which they could not have predicted, of course).

PETS, which has gone crazy, is a valid and intriguing comparator.

Based on PETS, and all being well with tomorrow's update, HFD could conceivably double this year!

Certainly, my £3 target for HFD is looking undemanding.