Member Info for Pianista

Presumably, IKEA's supply chain problems only are only impacting DX indirectly, i.e. to the extent they are affecting sales to IKEA's customers, which is DX's only involvement.

The 3 year contract was originally RNS'd on 28.9.17, so the renewal would have been announced in 9/20, if anything. However, given DX's increased turnover and profitability, on renewal the contract may no longer have been deemed material enough to RNS, compared with the situation in 2017 when DX was still struggling, and contracts like that were critical to survival.

Now quoting 15.9p to buy 25,000 (started the week at 15.4p, before ticking up to 15.5p.).

So, up over 3% for the week. Maybe it's the "CV show effect"?

Yes, I agree. If Trak comes good, it will multi-bag, unlike Microlise, especially from its current "frothy" level. Meanwhile, its buoyant SP can only improve the prospects of a takeover.

There are plenty of supply chain issues around generally, but we won't know what effect this will have, if any, on HFD's forecast PBT for FY22 until the trading update in a week's time.

Could be, but I think the imbalance between institutions ready to sell down their IPO holdings and PI's desperate for a piece of the action is also sufficient to explain the SP rise.

The shareholders who sold out at 135p will be pretty mad with the advising bankers for putting such a low price tag on the company - they've lost out to the tune of tens of millions of pounds.

Quoting 15.5p for 25,000, up from 15.4p. Maybe the CV Show is starting to have an effect!

But - takeover or no takeover - what we really need a good update this month.

Being jabbed does not reduce transmission, so there's no need to discriminate against the unjabbed. In any case, once they start to roll out a third jab, for a time there'll be some with 2 and some with 3. At that point, on your logic - or lack of it - you'd need to discriminate against the double-jabbed.

If it draws in punters - and investors even - it'll be worth it!

Yes, but (hopefully) shows the extent of the headroom above Trak’s current SP.

During its first month of listing, Microlise's MV has INCREASED by 4 times the MV of Trak.

I think shareholders, including the directors, would generally prefer shares to cash, in order not to trigger taxable gains on their Trak holdings (assuming the takeover price is sufficient to produce gains and not simply reduced losses!).

A possible exception might be a director holding at least 5%, who might prefer a taxable gain to be triggered - up to £1m of which could qualify for Business Asset Disposal Relief, ie a very favourable 10% capital gains tax rate - in which case he can elect for this to happen, without affecting the non-taxable status of the other directors' gains.

The new ML shareholders probably won't all be rushing for the exit, otherwise they will suffer taxable gains on their ML shares (except where the shares are held in an ISA or SIPP, for example).

No trades yet today, but a little uptick on the ask, up 2% from 15.39p to 15.7p. It's about as exciting as it gets with this one...

Keep them coming, those profound, carefully-researched postings!

Yes, there's no stopping it - SAAS I mean - at the moment!

It was insiders and institutions who held all the shares initially. The launch price of 135p would have taken into account all relevant information available at the time.

Nothing has really happened in the month that has elapsed since then, as regards the company or in the world generally, to materially change that.

So the meteoric rise seems to be purely due to limited supply from the initial shareholders vs demand from PIs excluded from the IPO. This will be the only driver of the SP till we get more hard news, eg the results due at the end of Sep; in the meantime, there’s no telling where it will go - I agree that 200p is not out of the question.

The only problem will be if the results, whilst decent, are more or less as expected, and confirm that 135p was indeed fair value for the shares, in which case they will, as you say, come back to earth!

KBYK - like you I'm already fully invested here, so I won't be adding.

Thought about SAAS, but don't see the scope for massive gains there, unlike with Trak if it gets its act together, though I do see SAAS as a fairly solid investment, and if I weren't already heavily invested in telematics I'd have put some money their way.

The SP of SAAS is obviously being bid up at the moment through extremely low share turnover and a small free float. The relevance to Trak is that this would make it cheaper - and who knows, more likely - for SAAS to take over Trak.

SP seems to have found its level at around 370p, as we await the next trading update, which is expected in the next week or two. My guess is that this will impress the market and send the SP back to £4+.

Has given the shares a nice little kick up the backside today!

Yes, and with no indication at all that DX is being held back by driver shortages, which has worried some investors.

Intel's CEO said last week it could take several years for a global shortage of semiconductors to be resolved (a problem that has even shuttered some car production lines, and which is also being felt in other areas, including consumer electronics).

It’s interesting to compare Trak and ML pronouncements on this issue:

TRAK - mention was made in the last trading update at the end of April:
“The Company has encountered many component shortages but, through the vertical integration of design and manufacturing hardware, has managed to avoid this having an adverse impact on revenues”.

This seems contradictory, but the conclusion is comforting, and as we’ve heard nothing further in the past four months, the situation presumably remains under control.

MICROLISE: Admission Document last month included the following under RISKS:
“Supplier and component dependency: the Group relies on a number of specialist suppliers for components and services including microprocessors, computer memory, the manufacture of Smart Gateway and DriveTab units, provision of network services and SIM cards and provision of software services. Whilst the Group seeks to develop relationships with multiple suppliers for each component and service required, any unexpected disruption to or termination of these supply contracts could negatively impact the Group’s ability to deliver on customer contracts which may have a material adverse effect on the Group’s reputation, business, prospects, results of operation and financial condition”.

This highlights the dependency, of even a highly-rated company like ML, on factors outside its control - which could be particularly relevant to Trak shareholders if ML acquire Trak via a share-for-share deal.

There should be a Q&A, but the opportunity to talk to directors/larger shareholders could be a bit constrained because of social distancing.

The Chairman’s trading statement will at least be RNS’d at 7am.