Member Info for Phrontist

Zoro

88E is financed through a UK institution.
Any nationality investor can work through LSE.
But all its management, negotiations, the oil site, partners, etc are Australian and American.
All expenditure is in US$ and all revenue will be in US$
Phrontist

The last RNS was 26 June.
2019 Q2 RNS could be 'good progress is being made blah blah' when it appears this week.
But Q2 is history, it is in the past, of little interest now.

And Conventional FO result may not be until September.
Not much happens during Summer school holiday period in politics, commerce, industry, etc.
This is painful for many, hanging on with low SP.
But like Brexit deadline dates, we should prepare for missing them.
Phrontist

Every Buy has an equal Sell
Every Sell has an equal Buy
Share activity can mean pressure for Buy In
Or, pressure to Get Out.
You have to examine the Buy and Sell price trends
Not the share movement volume....
Phrontist

2019 Q1 Report was released on 18 April 2019.
So we can expect a bumper Q2 Report this coming week. Highlights / focus:
Conventional FO - stage of contract negotiation (complete????)
Unconventional FO - is it released for FO Contract start of negotiations?
Yukon Gold - Inversion processing (interpretation and resource evaluation) should be complete
Western Blocks - what plans does 88E have with this Project?

A book could be written on the possibilities and variations.
We wait with abated breath!

Phrontist

Sorry:
IBM have Annual Sales of $80billion yet release 2019 Q2 Results on 18 July 2019.
88E have Annual Sales of $0 yet 2019 Q2 Results have not yet appeared.

Phrontist

IBM have annual sales of $80billion yet release Q2 Results on 18 June.
88E have annual sales of $0 and Q2 Results not appeared.

Phrontist

A small step for Preferred Bidder, a giant leap for 88E Shareholders.....

Phrontist

Ironically the Q2 2019 Report will not tell us what we want to hear.
It is Report 1 Jan 2019 to 30 Mar 2019, so we know most of activity info from 26 Mar RNS.
The Q2 Report should add in the financials.
This time last year it came out tomorrow.

88E is late announcing start of Unconventional FO Negotiations which were targeted for 1 July 2019.
This hold-up could be for two reasons:
1 They are finalizing technical investigation work.
2 It is being rolled into Preferred Bidder FO Contract - Winner Takes All, ha ha.

Progress and Plans on Western Blocks and Yukon Gold will be interesting.
But again, I doubt Q2 Report will add to 26 March RNS.

Regarding Conventional FO negotiations, this will have nothing new in Q2 Report.
It should simply be a separate stand-alone RNS.
Any day now! Or any week, any month, any....

Phrontist

To be £millionaire at 8.7p, the share owner needs approx. 11.5 million shares.
Cost is another issue...
P

Hello Ecuagold,
Many of us are making similar negative comments about DW. But this operation is not a 1-man band.

Remember the other directors and BEX relationship.

Also, it is easy to observe our past failures but we need conversation with DW to hear and understand the inside story.
We are all frustrated regarding manyana for Conventional FO in particular. I feel serious comments should follow contract closure or rejection.
And either way, then hear DW's narrative on the subject. At meetings I feel his answers are focused and honest.
Yet somehow I feel shareholders are being kept in the dark on RNS's which are more a case of throwing a dog a bone when he needs a full meal.
Phrontist

Islayman, you speak for many of us.
Since Icewine 1 not a single forecast has worked out as planned.
It is time for positive result.
Phrontist

Last year the Q2 Report was by end of this week.
We have 4 projects.
So lets hope for comprehensive BoD feedback.
Which includes Conventional FO contract completed.
Today is 20 days with no progress info.
Phrontist

Hotcopper Mon 15 July: Not a single post
No share movement from 1.8c on ASX
LSE - no posts on 15th July
Seems like a Bank Holiday.....
Of course no RNS either....
Phrontist

jawdz, of course the way Conventional FO drops affects BoD's future plans.

C FO failure will take one route.
C FO good deal will take another route.
C FO great deal will take a few routes.

In each route is:
amount of CR....
financial receipts to fund Yukon, Winx-2, Unconventional Icewine 3H, …
or, fire sale of something to get cash eg Yukon?

So, Conventional FO is pivotal on all future plans.

Phrontist

Brom, I agree.
But there are some difference between 88E and most other AIM businesses.

We have discovered over 4bbo. Eventually, could be over 8bbo.
Now 88E / BEX are going through the de-risking process.
Which means, better proof that the oil is there and commercially extractable.
To get better price when leases sold on.

I mean, we could sell on our leases for, say, US$100. (yes, one hundred US dollars...)
There would be a big fight to be winner of such an obviously low price.
But buyer could lose US$100million with 5 duster wells.
So, US$100 may not be so cheap.

Or, we could offer Central North Slopes assets (aka AEA company sale) for US$ 10 billion.
Ah, too soon. Our de-risking is rudimentary. So no one will buy at such a price today.

How much would we get for outright sale today? US$ 1b? US$ 2b? I don't know.
Clients that access our Data Rooms have much better idea than shareholders.
But they are probably bound by non-disclosure agreements.

But if we continue de-risking process, step by step, then SP value WILL go up.
Conventional FO is first step not requiring shareholder funds to drive it.
If successful with just one conventional well, SP will increase will rise dramatically.

And presumably now, the July issue of Unconventional FO tenders have already gone out.
As promised....
A second big step of further de-risking using third party money, not new shareholder money.

Step by step. 2 years to many Conventional production wells?
Step by step. 3 years to many Unconventional production wells?
etc. Called Creaming the Curve!

I think BoD are taking a sort of medium term strategy to keep further CR down.
But get de-risked oil reserves progressed.
I don't think many, even any, other AIM companies have such a solid opportunity.

Phrontist

Over 4 years shares have diluted to twice original number.
During same period, Central North Slopes land we lease has increased 5 times.
That is potential gain by 2.5 times not reduction to half value.
Add to this, conventional find over 2bbo which was NIL 4 years ago.
The SP should be at 4p.
It is not 4p due to two Icewine 2 failures and one (stupid) Winx-1 failure.
I put this down to bad management.
Unless they suggest 'we are unlucky'! Which is bad management anyway.
And thus weak belief in Conventional FO success.
However, FO Negotiation has deeper expertise involved raising chance of sensible and good deal.

If you understand and believe all this then you probably own shares.
If you don't believe any of it, you probably don't own shares.
In fact, you are unlikely to be reading all these posts!!!

Phrontist

Strange, Google Finance on my mobile gives 5.56% down.
P

Nothing.
Phrontist

Hi rfarfa

Personally I feel the Preferred Bidder has a minimum of Big USA Business out of a Houston Office.

But not necessarily a USA (originally registered) company. So, BP would be good with more shares owned in USA than UK. But Registered HQ is in UK supported by as big operation in Houston. (In approximate terms).

I feel that many medium and big companies REALLY WANT our Central North Slopes assets. Both conventional and unconventional. Meaning, the Preferred Bidder is happy to engage with a fair price based on oil expectations.

Also, I think that specifically DW wishes to maintain a high level of control over this site for many years. When he says FO Contract he means FO Contract. Not sell out now based on our limited 'commercial oil position' now as opposed to our 'Seismic 3D and Processing' position now.

He is setting out for many steps with each step (contract) being from a more confident base than previous contract.

Not Big Bang Sell Out by Summer 2020. Which could be £1/share.

It may take longer to hit £1/share, but follow on could ultimately be £3/share or £5/share.

DW is not using 88E as bounce to 'better job' somewhere else. MM the same. They want to work this site for decades IMHO.

When I say £1, £3 or £5 per share I mean accumulated pay-out's dividend + capital refund + share value.

I think more of us are realising that the legal aspects of this contract are in fact a big challenge. This is contrary to DW's statement to me last year that FO is simple and straight forward.

OK, he knows everything, I know nothing. But maybe the business negotiation has 'evolved' dramatically over the last 7 months.

I cannot say I am confident of a very well planned and executed outcome. Seeing DW SS MM DM team on the job. And shareholdings....smiles.

But, ummm, well, yes, I am confident of a well planned and executed outcome.

Phrontist

There could be a strong reason to not take holiday until FO Contract is complete and enters working period.

The Farminee may announce the deal before ASX and LON are open.

Meaning, as a possible USA company, they could announce between 16:30 GMT and 01:00 GMT the following day.
Meaning, USA company's business day - morning and afternoon.

MM's will immediately set SP high on ASX opening at 01:00 GMT the following day and LON opeing 08:00 the following day.

A lot of private trading will occur during this 8.5 hour period.
LON will likely open according to ASX close.

If Farminee announces after 16:30 Friday afternoon, then add Saturday and Sunday for reading News interpretations and Stressing Out moments. Ensure toilets are stocked with plenty of toilet roles.

Announcement by Farminee is certain to NOT have the detail 88E BoD are obliged to release for ASX and LON shareholder consumption.

There can be completely unexpected elements to this project. For example, coincidental with 88E FO Contract, BEX may sell out 100%. As old saying goes, one bird in the hand is worth more than two birds in the bush.

Phrontist