Member Info for Phrontist

I can sympathise with the many investors who restrict their wishes to one well with small/medium oil company.
But, other side of coin is massive potential.
88E/BEX have had a team of computer / geologists working flat out for over a year to create the Data Room. This is seriously big achievement. Proving the existence of conventional and unconventional.
OK, we have not drawn oil yet. But the attraction of such a vast resource is unmistakable.
CP have uncovered 750mbo over 10 years in the north western areas.
Half a dozen drills can prove out 4bbo for us.
And the right company, 6 drills is nothing compared to their financial resource.
Success will bring the winner our beautiful oily fields for 30 years of onging exploration and production.
Is BP just moving operations South a few miles?
Phrontist

Trump is real estate, not oil.
Quite frankly, Putin is more likely.
Russia owns No. 8 and 9 below.
Look at global map.
It is small boat trip from East of Russia to West of Alaska (Wales), 89km
Dover - Calais is 33km.
Russia has massive work force in oil and gas industry at much lower wages than the West.
It is all to fight for, 4bbo so far. Likely 8bbo in two years.
Looks like we will know a week tomorrow.....
Phrontist
Boat trip is 87km

The top 10 global oil companies are:

10 Phillips 66 (USA) $111bn (spinoff from CP decade ago)
9% 2018 growth, mainly refinement, wholesale, chemicals.

9 Lukoil (Russian) $115bn
Reserves 15bbo, growth not given, production and refinement.

8 Rosneft (Russia) $134bn
133% 2018 growth, oil production and refineries.

7 Chevron (US) $159bn
18% 2018 growth, oil production and refineries.

6 Total (French) $209bn
22% 2018 growth, mostly refineries, chemicals, services.

5 ExxonMobil (USA) $290bn
19% 2018 growth, production and refineries.

4 BP (UK/USA) $300bn
Technically is registered as British but half USA owned, USA CEO.
24% 2018 growth, involved in upstream, midstream and downstream (large) business.
Seem to have sold out of Prudhoe Bay. Own 20% of Rosneft.

3 CNPC (China National Petroleum) $346bn
25% 2018 growth, very diverse in activities and geographic spread.

2 Royal Dutch Shell (UK/Holland) $388bn
27% 2018 growth, involved in upstream, midstream and downstream (large) business.

1 Sinopec (China Petroleum & Chemical) $426bn
22% 2018 growth, very diverse in activities and geographic spread.

Any of these companies could completely take over our Central North Slopes area for conventional and unconventional. But the most likely of these 10 is BP. Yet, BP are reputed to be selling their leading position in Prudhoe Bay to CP and Hilcorp and are rumoured to be leaving Alaska.
So, BP could just move their exploration and production work south a few miles. Very convenient.

A rumor is that BP has called a company meeting for all Alaska employees on 20 August. No subject is mentioned. BP operates the entire Prudhoe Bay field — more than half of Alaska’s total oil production.

From political viewpoint, IMHO all companies are acceptable to Trump. He is businessman first, looking for sustained revenue for Alaska tax and USA tax.

Phrontist

Nutsy2012, wow, you think 10 wells?
That would be amazing.
Cost would be $150million, in region of.
A big investment in our land!

Many of us will be grateful for 1 well.
If that is highly successful, then the future is bright.
But our region is large.
I think DW was hoping for 3 wells initially.
This could cover a larger area to test for more of the resources as depicted by Seismic 3D work.
Phrontist

It is all to fight for here.
The stronger the Farminee, the better prospect of great start and bull dozing through problems, small or large.
But what defines success and level of success?
Did we strike oil?
How many oil lakes are commercial?
What are initial oil flow rates?
The quality of extracted oil, best is light crude
Resource strengths to sustain oil flow pressure
Based on these results, early estimates of our commercial conventional resources

Any more suggestions....?

Good morning all committed investors.
A big one is on the way....
Phrontist

Our SP could stay at 1p, even drop, or
Reach 5p and hold.
I think we know most factors to consider in the contract:
Successes and experience of Farminee in Alaska
Size and wealth of the company
General global reputation of the company
Country of origin, thinking USA company is best
Number and position of wells committed to
Amount of cash up front to cover our costs so far
How much / extent of free oil as payment by us to them
How much oil is raised as payment for us
Drilling plan timescale confirming Q1 2020 for oil flow
Is well in position to discover multiple resources
Any attempt at deeper drilling for Unconventional
Any agreement relating to future business relationship

Any more suggestions?
There is a massive range in possibilities.
But at this moment we know nothing....

Phrontist

DW replied on 2 Nov 2018 to my earlier Questions.
He made two key points:
1 to be honest almost all of the questions cross the line between “clarification of existing information” to “new information constituting inside information” or are just way off the mark in terms of understanding of what standard industry practice is / what a deal in the real world looks like.
2 FARM-OUTS ARE PRETTY VANILLA TYPICALLY – SOMEONE COMES IN AND SPENDS MONEY ON THE FUTURE WORK PROGRAM SO YOU DON’T HAVE TO – THEY GET PART OF THE PROJECT IN EXCHANGE.

I think DW and the BoD are pretty much sticking to this strategy.
Only Conventional.
Only an FO limited to 1, 2 or 3 wells.
Farmineee gets paid from the FO Project.

Clearly this vast oily half million acres has a value.
Today the value is quite low (see SP...).
When FO Contract is signed, SP will rise.
When Farminee strikes oil with decent Flow Rate, SP seriously rises.
After a few months of oil production, SP will go even higher.

All this can happen with just one well to prove out the resource.
Then our entire resource attracts higher value.
But 88E/BEX have only given small amount away, being part of one well Project.

When announced, many shareholders may faint with dissappointment, only one well....
But this is good, because only a small part of our resource has been shared.
But the value for the entire resource will rise.

SP has risen, say 5p.
CR then grabs some money from shareholders.
Including Nubies with deep pockets.

This is what is called Creaming the Curve.
Site can be further developed by more FO's with favourable terms for us.
Or, we have the capital raised to strike forward under our own steam.

Eventually some large Tier 1 will make an offer to buy.
And then we are in good position to bargain.
The company will be financially strong, again driving SP up.

IMHO Phrontist (PS Monday 5 August is smelling very very nice .....)

Moneyhawk, good info.
Can other costs be included such as:
Geologist time
Computer analysis and processing
88E / BEX share of business overheads
AEA / EO overheads

Phrontist

2019 Q2 Report must be RNS this morning, the 31st July as the last day permitted under AIM Rules.
This a report and accounts on Q2 only. There is no obvious reason why it should be so late.
The Q2 Report cannot contain events after end March 2019.

Information on Conventional FO is a month following the last and only deadline. Being end of June.

Finally, Unconventional FO is also in cookoo land. Last target was 1 July 2019, now we are just drifting. No reason for delay, no new target.

It is 3 hours to ASX opening. If there are no RNS'S then a Perth 88E shareholder should visit the offices to find out if the company is still functioning.
And request reasons for failure to keep shareholders informed.

Phrontist

Phrontist

Interested in CP, see my post on 29 Mar 2019 17:58 and 17:59
P

My post 28 May:

A chap called Marushack is CEO of Conoco Philips Alaska.

Read their plans in the North Slopes region:

https://www.ktoo.org/2018/10/16/qa-conocophillips-alaska-president-discusses-his-prediction-for-a-north-slope-renaissance/

from last October 2018.

Clearly they are incredibly active in the region. But are we part of their plans?

Or is it Repsol, BP, Exxon Mobile???

We have a double-big attraction:

The Dalton Highway and Trans Alaska Pipeline both go North-South through the Eastern side of our massive 500,000 acre site.

This is a major PLUS for any major operation. Really significant.

Much of CP's discoveries seem to be East and North of our patch.
Logisitics will be a big expense, even add to risk of oil removal.

Phrontist

People should have read COP's 2018 Annual Report issued at end of Feb 2019.
It is 100 pages or so to include full 2018 Accounts.
But it also includes 2019 Strategy and Financial Planning in some detail.
I did mention this several times on here in March/April.
An interesting aspect is complete sell out of UK operations followed by long term focus on Alaska.
They didn't actually mention 88E and Central North Slopes, but close.....
Phrontist

Thanks Brom, this just goes to show how important personal contact is between shareholders and 88E directors. DW has tough call to decide if questions are clarification of public information or is new unannounced information.

Moving on, remember the Prudhoe Bay gang of three, an oil industry Dream Machine? BP as leader with CP and ExxonMobil as partners - for 30 years or so!
Could they be on page one of our 'FO Contract'?

Noting, we still know nothing. The Farminee could be comparatively small business, with limited terms of agreement.

Phrontist

Desmond, he said something like:
We are using a professional FO Negotiator in Houston.
Initially around 50 enquiries...
Soon reduced to 30....
The aim is to shortlist 5...(not done at that time)
And finally select one best bidder.
This part of the conversation was a revelation.
Phrontist

One day 4p will be cheap.....
Tomorrow?
Wednesday?
Bad events for 3 years have beaten us to the ground.
But in parallel, much investigation has been going on.
3 RNS's within 2 days???
I would like to be a fly on DW's office wall.
The experience of MM, DM, DW, SS, EO, FO Negotiator, computer geologists, will produce a deal that is fair AND massive!!!
Phrontist

Most hoped for and likely Farminee:
BP
CP
ExxonMobil
Repsol
But do not forget, over 50 originally made enquiries.
Reduced to 30, then 5, now 1

Phrontist

Perth Western Australia is about 8 hours ahead of us. Bus Day is about 0am to 8am GMT.
Houston is about 6 hours behind us. Business day is about 3pm GMT to 11pm GMT.
Alaska (Anchorage, Juneau) is about 8 hours behind us. Bus Day is about 5pm GMT to midnight 24:00 GMT.
Alaska is almost a day behind Australia.

I assume most of the FO Negotiation and Government Permissions are from our 3pm until possibly midnight.
Which means plenty of time to complete paperwork in Texas and Alaska for a BIG RNS at 1am GMT Monday 29 July on HotCopper. )))

This is it guys. Have a relaxing weekend. Then up late Sunday night to watch ASX open on their Monday morning.

Phrontist

Last RNS's were:
18/04/2019 Q1 2019 Activities Report and Cashflow
22/06/2019 Alaska Projects Update
26/06/2019 Project Icewine Conventional Farmout Update
Next opportunity is Monday 29 July.
To be inside July is Mon, Tue and Wed only.

Q2 2019 Report will be 11 days later than usual.
Alaska projects Update will be at least a week later than 'monthly'.
Conventional Farmout Update will be 3 days later than 'monthly.

I do not wish to be picky about a report being a few days late. BUT....
All three expected RNS's are late!
We are close to having NO RNS's in June 2019.

Something is going on.
I am sure all staff are hard working.
Q2 Report should be easy. April May and June are past events.
One thing that can make other two RNS's difficult is status of Unconventional FO.
The U-FO Project should have been launched 1 July 2019, with RNS to confirm.
It has been a year in the preparation.
So is U-FO being delayed pending possibility it may be included in C-FO?

And BoD are expecting finalisation a C-U-FO contract?
Exciting prospect or Pie in the Sky?

1am Monday morning could be interesting....
Phrontist

Suppose Preferred Bidder wanted to skip FO stage and just buy us out.
In this case, 88E would sell Accumulate Energy Alaska which is owner of our JV owned part of Central North Slopes Alaska.
Still a lease transfer process would have to occur and be registered with Alaska authorities.
The money paid for AEA would end up in 88E bank account.
Part would be transferred to BEX.
And 90% of remainder would be transferred to 88E shareholders in form of Capital Refund.
88E would continue as an ASX and AIM business with its Yukon Gold and Western Blocks interests.
It is a clean solution but Preferred Bidder would be paying large upfront sum before actually extracting any oil, which is big risk for them.
Hence the more cumbersome FO process.
Phrontist

11:42 Brom
Well remembered point.
Which was also a BIG CLUE....
Also his words to me in private chat -
- a tier 1 company will seismic the whole area including everything we have already done.
Thus I clutch my 88E share pile on daily basis.
And live on a shoestring until C-FO Day....
Phrontist