Member Info for Phrontist

There must be an immense level of good happenings going on behind the scenes.
Yukon planning for 'next step'. JV, drill, sell, etc
Western Blocks seems likely for a Winx-2 following Seismic work.
Thoughts about what happens with Central North Slopes areas that have not been JV'd with PMO?
And a little something about HRZ 'soft FO negotiations'....
This company is on the edge of becoming a substantial business.
Phrontist

Last information on Yukon Gold and Western Blocks was Quarterly Report for period ending September 2019.
Almost 6 weeks ago.
Some news with Charlie-1 progress RNS would keep us up-to-date.
I doubt anything too dramatic is occuring with Unconventional until April 2020 earliest.
Then we can hope for Charlie-1 events....
Phrontist

Last Charlie-1 appraisel well progress update was 14 Oct 2019.
Time for another one by Thursday, assuming once a month ATM.
Phrontist

The steady climb for 90 days...?
Then 10 bagger for 8.8p...yipeee

Today had a 13% rise to 0.79p
Possible for a few adjustments over next 20 mins.
2p is more than reasonable based on expected rise in 90 days.
My guess is 3p to 4p at SPUD time about Wk 1 February 2020.
It is our drilling history that holds SP back.
But this is our first drill for Conventional Oil on Central North Slopes area.
Extensive Seismic 3D, computer processing and Geologist analysis has occurred.
Nothing is 100%, but we are drilling for 7 layers PLUS HRZ.
Phrontist

Think about 1.6bbo...
Imagine one production well with many laterals produces 100,000 bopd
There are 200 working days per year of oil flow
Then 1.6bbo takes 1600m /(0.1m x 200) = 80 years to extract the oil.
So, typical production elapse time could be 10 years using 8 wells.
Starting 2021? 2022? Then commissioning one new well per year.
Project will last 18 years.
A big operation, such undertaking requires considerable up-front financing and staffing.
Phrontist

November 2019 December 2019 January 2020 then February 2020 and gush gush gush...
I have taken a Part Time job to take my mind of this project. )))
Some publications say the largest 2020 planned drilling in the world. Is this true?
I have dreams of some vast drill rig reaching to the clouds.....but NO, not size of rig that matters
It seems 'largest' refers to the size of oil resource being targetted by one drill session? 1.6bbo
My new name - BBO-Phrontist

boom.boom
Many business combinations, many possibilities for next stages of 88E/BEX business development.
I am sure the BoD's of 88E with BEX, plus newcomer PMO are more than able to plan suitable paths to maximise revenue and profitability. In seems likely that David Wall, Dr Steven Staley and Michael McFarlane (BEX) will be in their element. The planning, negotiating, wheeling and dealing is right down their street of experience.

These past technical researching situations typical of early stage exploration are stressful and hard going. As shareholders have noticed, it is year after year of expenditure, and struggling to find first oil flow leading to revenue.
Q1/Q2 2020 should do it for all of us.
And remember, 88E is debt free, ignoring the back-to-back bank loan to cover the money owed to 88E from Alaska Gov.
We have $millions in the bank. We have small but highly experienced BoD.
Only 3 months to SPUD.
Phrontist IMHO etc
- IF Charlie-1 strikes on a few good conventional layers.
In Q1/Q2 2020, If oil is produced to ground level, 88E will be viewed by Global Players in a totally new manner.
Assuming oil quality is good, flow rate is commercial, etc.

88E have postponed the Official Unconventional FO Tenders process.
In 2017 it was hoped to gain legs maybe mid to late 2018 following extensive Contractor investigation.
So far the Official FO Tender has not surfaced.
This seems likely due to hoped for Charlie-1 work.
The HRZ layer is thought to be not much deeper than the 7th Conventional Oil Layer.
So, drill, extract, investigate HRZ seems likely.
It is hoped the $23m agreed expenditure from PMO will have enough to cover HRZ investigation.
Could there be a follow on Frack and Flow Test by 88E/BEX? No idea, to early to guess.
Phrontist

I often think about post Charlie-1 'life' based on GOOD OIL RESULTS. )))
What next? Many possibilities since we will have some new financial leverage.
It is reasonable to assume a much higher SP in Q2 2020 with GOOD OIL RESULTS.
Could be 3p, 6p, 9p .....we just don't know, sitting here in Q4 2019.

Today, at 0.7p our MC is £44.3m (6330m shares x 0.7p)
At 3.0p the MC will be £190m (4.3 times rise)

In previous years we often issued up to 15% new shares.
Doing a Capital Raise of 1% requires 63m new shares added to 6330m
63m x £0.03 = £1.9m (not much but very small affect on SP, my guess)

But 3% CR at 6p is 3 x 2 x £1.9m = £11.4m (reasonable sum)
More optimistic, 6% at 9p is 6 x 3 x £1.9m = £34.2 (substantial sum)

The BoD are at a totally new level regards future planning.
Options include:
Sell this asset outright, say $4/b x 400mb (our share, say) = $1.6b (in 2020, wow…)
OR:
….Continue to next stage of production alongside PMO, will consume our cash
But eventually sell oil for $70/b over a 10 year period:
70 x 0.6 (prod cost $28/b) x 0.84 (tax 16%) x 400mb (our share, say) = $14 billion

Noting, there has been much criticism of BoD over 4 years
And also, much praise
But during Q2 2020 this company could become VERY ATTRACTIVE FOR INVESTORS

Remembering, these figures are for only one part (say 15%) of our total possible oil assets.

Phrontist all IMHO, DYOR, mistakes are possible, optimism is likely

There were no oil leaks on the Winx Project, just likely inside information.
And RMP SP dived first.....

Des45, I admire your belief in 88E, your optimism.
And also your understanding of why 3p is a reasonable possibility.
The SP is approaching a position where it can randomly float up with no resistance.
It has taken BoD a long time to get here.
Now it seems, we have only good activities ahead.
And the risks seem to be getting lower based on last 4 years experience and knowledge gained.
SP is climbimg the ramp up to Charlie-1 operations and likely a few oil flows.
From now until then, 88E needs NEW LARGE investors to take SP on continued rise.
Investors that have studied the companies past, present, future, and decided 88E is a great share.
Phrontist

There is plenty to be happy about.
BP Malguk results, many Seismics, endless computer processing + geologist analysis.
Charlie-1 position is a stroke of luck, being parts of so many oil layers in one vertical position.
7 possible conventional layers to investigate in one drill session.
And finish with possible HRZ 'sweet spot' at the bottom - 11,000 ft ish.
$23million investment in this drill project from FO partner PMO.
Is spud before end of Jan 2020? Not long to go.
How long is drill time, 8 weeks maybe - February and March. Perhaps into April.
The longer the better, meaning many flow tests in the making.
% probability of no oil strikes must be very low indeed.
Chance of 2 or more strikes is very good.
We can expect Q3 2019 Report soon, by end of Oct.
Then it should be less than 3 months to spud.....
Phrontist

I am looking forward to an opening RNS on the start of field work for Charlie-1

I think more shareholders are realising what a major project this is.
The culmination of Seismic 3D, computer processing, geologist analysis, historic (BP) work, in middle of Central North Slopes.
The culmination of Icewine-2 drills, soaks, efforts and limited results.
Followed by over a year of specialist study to suggest new HRZ drill location more centrally placed.

The experience of BEX and 88E over 4 years combined with new extensive experience of PMO.

Still, never say this is guaranteed to work, because this is exploration.
But we have learnt how to improve our chances of success so be optimistic with good reasons.

This is our first drill location derived from deep experience and technical work.
DW and Team have surely designed our best plan to date.
7 layers conventional and 1 layer HRZ with one drill project.

It seems possible that the recent CR will contribute to a frack this summer.
Assuming there is well header time available following hoped for conventional successes.

I hate wishing for the months to pass, we have only one life.
But I am pretty keen for Q1 2020 work to start....

Phrontist

Good man (woman?) boom.boom.
And excellent points made.
This is what 88E needs, more understanding and large investors to nudge SP up.
Phrontist

Keep going for few days boom.boom and you will catch me up ))) Phrontist

Hardtohandle, sorry tale?
Some of you guys should be on FT100 with business projections that have some predictability.
You are on AIM and into exploration on virgin territory.
This has been tough for me too. But due to lack of my own experience.
True to suggest that DW's business experience was counterbalance for PB's technical experience. Then PB died following operation.
DW has had to build backroom technical team with MM. Take over PB's work and continue development.
Charlie-1 is an outstanding opportunity to raise oil and discover commercial opportunity.
The fail fast comment is a sound bite not a business strategy. Much of what we do is seasonal. Much is sequential eg geological surveys and studies, field Seismic 3D, build digital database, analyse and interpret digital database, plan drill operation, raise FO bids and negotiations, sign contract, commence and execute contract committment.
This can't be completed in a year, or two. More like 3 or 4. Maybe more if we share in follow on production with FO.
We must be realistic about this business.
Getting to this Charlie-1 FO process is outstanding work, just amazing.
Now I look forward to SS influence and possible 'Cove Energy' moment....
There is a Team here, doing much more than shareholders are able to see. This can be annoying but commercial confidentiality is necessary.
Anyway, it is free society, sell and Go if you want. Just don't stay to whinge and whine like unhappy baby.
Phrontist

So guzzler, why are you here?

We are still working through a proving out process.
In our 5th year of investigations.
The Charlie-1 program is the culmination of over $100m investment by 88E and BEX with PMO taking up this 6 month period.
The prime focus is four strata of conventional being seven identified layers.
The secondary focus is identifying HRZ unconventional layers at much deeper levels.
There is reasonable chance that both oil resource types could prove to be excellent for oil production.
OK, so far our JV have identified about 4bbo of both types.
But the results from Charlie-1 with follow on analysis could indicate much higher resource levels.
We occupy a large area of land, 500,000 acres or so.
Estimates and predictions could suggest possibly 8bbo, 12bbo even more.
Oh yes, Tier 1 companies will want such a major resource.
Likes of BP, CP, Repsol, ExxonMobil will be on the phone pretty quick.
The company's objective has always been to de-risk until a big Sell price is reached.
Phrontist

Smokin 88

BP are big powerful operator. We all know this.
If Q1 and Q2 2020 go well for us, nothing stops sudden big offers flying in.

Phrontist