Member Info for Phrontist

At GMT 24 hour clock:

ASX opens first 01:00

LON opens next 08:00

USA opens last 15:00 ish

New Farmee could, in theory, announce a Deal anytime they like.
Which means during USA trading time is likely.

88E does not trade in USA.
But some share owners may be able to route through there on a private basis.

If a tidy agreed announcement is planned, then 01:00 on ASX is most likely. IMHO.

Phrontist

A small amount of research into 88E shows this company is high risk.

We have managed a failure for three years in a row.

So talk of imminent and impressive FO Contract is met with disbelief.

But the company is well endowed with assets to achieve very high return.

This is the gamble - high risk supported by high gain.

Or keep out, keep safe, keep working for a living.

SP at 0.82p seems to be optimal point at this time.

This is underwritten by US$10m in bank (I think) over 6.5b shares, or 0.12p cash.

And 4bbo++ not yet extracted.

Phrontist

Just an interesting point about COP.

Their share price dropped 5% last Thursday.

Their SP does the usual moving about.
But 5% in one day is highly unusual.
It equates to over $3b reduction in MC value.

This is a very big business. No special announcements were made.

Maybe they have applied for a large scale project related long term $loan?

Obviously a leak of something came from somewhere.

The loan could be to buy a large oil resource asset in Alaska....hint. )))

If repayments were over 20 years, say, then this is one method of being tax efficient.

Initially the loan will become a deficit on the companies balance sheet.
And the purchased oil asset that is not fully proven could be entered at a low value.

So it can be used to offset tax against the very large profits they make.

Only thoughts. Not ramping. There is NO evidence this could relate to a North Slopes purchase.

Phrontist

Good morning Mr Martini. We have a meal hanging on this one!

My view is, there is over 4bbo under that ground.

Technology to extract it improves by the day.

It is not a question of IF, more a question of WHEN.

And WHO, and details of the DEAL.

PHRONTIST

Good morning Brom,It is all quiet on the 88E front today. Nice sunny day, perfect for Bank Holiday.Even the open ASX was remarkably low share dealing level.Soon be June, surely FO contract will be signed then.With such substantial conventional oil resources I would expect an open stampede to get hold of such a prize.88E will certainly be the oil story of 2019.Either for major success or damp squid.Phrontist

Brom, agree.

I was just doing a summary.

Technology is relentless in providing new methods. Which is great.

At some stage someone will have to decide next step for HRZ and getting it to Commercial Oil Flow.

Definitely money needed and risk involved. We missed our best chance in 2017.

We all hope Conv FO will be Tier 1 and soon.

Then maybe Unconv HRZ options can be seriously considered in detail, and decision made.

Myself, I would upgrade Icewine 2 and/or re-drill it on Franklin Bluffs.

Then do many horizontal drills ……..

Phrontist

I think it is time for DW and SS to visit London and do presentation on these technical questions and answers.

With new Unconventional Specialist. (Oh, do we have one? Or do we not?)

Heard the saying 'knowledge is power'?

Well, us existing and new shareholders need more knowledge.

Then SP will rise based on clearer understanding and improved willingness to invest.

Not endless periods of mystery, then a few comments in an RNS.

Then back to The Dark....

Phrontist

Dazz, IMHO some answers could well be:

Unconventional was the reason for oil exploration on our CNS Leases.

Unconventional is generally higher risk to realise success and more costly to work.
It is deeper to drill (11,600ft for us) and requires fracking process.

Conventional was an opportunity. We already owned the land. Geology indicated that it is likely conventional oil is on our CNS land.

First stage exploration for conventional uses above ground vibration method called 3D Seismic with follow up using computer processing on the data to create strata and estimates as to geology.
No expensive drilling required, one place at a time.
3D Seismic is lower cost to cover wider area and can reach 6,000ft, typical for us.

Field work has Unconventional as Summer activity and Conventional as Winter activity.
There is overlap.
Whilst one (Unconv) is being difficult, other (Conv) can still proceed.
Both share the same lease cost.

Icewine 1/2 at Franklin Bluffs proved Unconv HRZ yields great oil but failed on oil flow due to low pressure.
Recent RNS suggests the reason for failure is this particular place has bitumen content.
Feeling that FB area is just outside the HRZ Sweet Spot.

PB said to me and one other person over 2 years ago, Creaming the Curve would start with 3 wells North of FB area, and going North in a line parallel to TAP / Highway North/South line.

If Icewine 2 had flowed in 2017, the SP would have supported CR to do this stage in Summer 2018.
If we were able to do it now it is likely oil flow will be fine based on Sweet Spot geology.

It is possible Icewine 2 is only 10 me in wrong place, or 100m, or 1,000m.
In which case, horizontal upgrade on Icewine 2 is very likely to work.
Lateral drilling can be 2 miles (11,000ft).

To drill Icewine 3 will require expense for roadway and new 500ft x 500ft concrete slab.
Horizontal drilling on Icewine 2 avoids this.

I assume BoD are hoping that Conv FO will be successful, possibly enough for short term CR on raised SP to tackle these next stage Unconventional issues.

We wait a few weeks to find out.

And yes, PB's original Well Design DID include Vertical AND Horizontal working.
If we had carried this out in Summer 2017, then existing Icewine 2 problem is unlikely to have ever occurred.
Meaning, next 3 wells on Creaming the Curve could have been last year.

Phrontist

Very good news.

A lot of work.

Icewine 2 understood.

Conventional FO 2 to 5 weeks.

We are small business with massive oil reserves.

There have been difficulties but slow and sure, the problems become answers.

Phrontist

Monstersaurus

Nice one. Ha ha.

It is my view that 88E should 'investigate' the viability of selling Accumulate Energy Alaska with all Central North Slopes Alaska leases and technical / computer information.

If this is viable (competitive demand) then AEA should be sold.

It is clear that without PB our business has lost direction.

How much would AEA get? $1 billion? $5 billion?

We do not know. We should find out. BoD should get independent assessment.

Phrontist

Questions to DW.
On DW's reply to Questions from me last November, he 'reminded' me that:

Questions must be clarification of existing RNS.
Not new information.

Obvious when you think about it because 'new information' must in itself be a new RNS.

I feel he tries to 'cooperate' as best as possible.
But clearly, if his answers cross the ANN / RNS line, then he will be in trouble.

Hope it helps, Phrontist

There is a Global drop in Stock Exchange prices stemming from the USA-China Trade War.

In the long run, Trump's clear intention is to severely damage China, so easy quick solution is unlikely.

And again, in the long run, USA industry will slowly rise from the dead with increased home manufacturing.

Which, in the long run, is very good news for owners of Central North Slopes.

Phrontist

….that tonight is THE night, or morning for FO deal confirmed?

At this stage I suspect that 88E / BEX are not to blame for the time taken to complete.

The likely Farmee and 88E/BEX must have agreed Contract details and terms. That is how they become 'preferred bidder'.

But scale of final deal could be such that Farmee requires time to get organised.

We have been through this before. Arranging finance, finalising legalities, ensuring licences will be granted, negotiating Alaska Tax (such as high expenditure in 2019 and 2020 can be set against tax in 2021 and 2022).

So, no need to moan about 88E/BEX.

88E/BEX have kept total silence excepting RNS's. I cannot see any dodgy dealings as some have suggested.

After all, if you believe in our last 5 years history then you KNOW the Conventional FO (or better) contract will be signed.

It is people with low knowledge and understanding that feel risk is too high to invest.

Most LTHers have quietly held on to their shares (80%+ ?) and the remainder is subject to short term moaners. ))

West Coast business day is about 16:00 BST to 24:00 BST (British Summer Time).

So, latest chance was by midnight Friday night for announcing 01:00 BST Monday morning on ASX.

Yes, it is possible for FO announcement in 9 hours time.

Phrontist

Why has our JV paid shareholders money for nearly a year of investigation into Icewine 2, and still no answer...

All they had to do was contact Spinefx, he knows all the answers....

Phrontist

...that 88E fracked Icewine 2V at the wrong levels?

Who said the Icewine 1 core had been lost?

This company sometimes compares favourably with Faulty Towers.

Phrontist

SP is obviously very low.

My guess, BoD are working hard to get a Winx-2 project on the GO.

One member of the group JV is key, 88E.

And they are waiting on a Farm Out contract to be completed.

If that goes well I feel sure the positive effects will reach RMP.

With collective plans for Winx-2 to be drilled Q1/2020 in a much better place than Winx-1.

Likely on the West side of Western Blocks, quite close to an oil producing well.

Phrontist

Thanks SilverTrader.

BeverleyBeaver, your bank balance depends on when you bought and sold. But still, I agree, many are frustrated by failure of 88E / BEX to realise any visible success to date - oil above ground.

BUT, it is a big BUT:
extensive 3D Seismic and Processing for conventional
dripping oil from Icewine-1 rock, with analysis figures repeated in AGM 2019 Presentation

For many the argument is not about IF, it is about WHEN.

Those that are able to wait should benefit from substantial gain. IMHO.

Of course, these decisions are personal etc.

Phrontist

What will happen on Central North Slopes if an ambitious and motivated Tier 1 Company decides 'this is the place for them' over the next 30 years?

88E / BEX are suggesting gross mean Conventional is 2.9bbo from less than half our land leases area and based on modern 3D Seismic with latest processing technology.

AGM Presentation also confirms gross mean 1.4bbo to 3.6bbo Unconventional.

'Preferred bidder' is looking at lifting over 5 bbo BEFORE a complete de-risking exercise has been completed.

This could be net to Farmee of Conv + Unconv of 10 bbo over a 30 year production period using latest ( and later ha ha) underground exploration and extraction methods.

Gross contiguous area 530,000 acres with both TAP and Dalton Highway passing through from Prudhoe Bay down to Valdez. Easy access for staff and equipment, easy exit delivery for oil to West Coast of USA.

Is this all true? Or are we being hoodwinked?

Every oil major BoD must be talking about this site. Protected by USA social, economic and military infrastructure. On land not out at sea (remember BP and Gulf Mexico accident?)

How many wells will be operating during prime production years? 100's, many 100's....

Are CP pulling out of UK to make Alaska and Central North Slopes a key part of their future oil production strategy? We don't know. But it is quite feasible. Read the Conoco Philips 2018 Annual Report, I mentioned this a few months ago.

Or are we waiting to sign up a 1-well wonder in 2020?

I am definitely focused on this FO being what PB originally suggested - 100 bagger. His predictions are slowly being proved out. OK some difficulties. Long and winding road etc.

There has been nothing on AIM like this before. I did not agree with Winx diversion. But DW / MM plus Teams seem to be on-track for a major success.

Phrontist

Thank you for nice comments Redirons.

If these posts do reflect our reasons for FO delays, then it is good news. Very good news.

Crazy though it may sound, the £1 party ON, and could be nearer than expected.

I have posed situations where the Conv FO may not be successful. There is still a significant up-side, just a little more delays, and pain (CR's).

But either way, for an Investor today, 88E SP at 0.8p or so is EXTREMELY LOW.

If you wish to buy a share to sleep on it for a few years, this baby IS IT.

Quite simply, we are underwritten with 4 bbo (or more) hiding under our leases.

In the end, some company will find a commercial way to extract and develop for 30 year production.

Also, it seems possible, when ever we start such a sizeable FO Bid, they will take double the time originally estimated.

On the same path, if Unconventional is being included in Conventional deal, then the Government based negotiations will be completed just once, not twice.

But I must say, DW's reply to my question 8 months ago now, was 'no, unconventional was not being considered within the conventional deal, but could be....'.

Phrontist

Alaskan Gov may be prepared to make concessions, but based on reciprocating concessions by Farmee, such as:

1 Maximise new employee appointments from Alaskan registered workers.

2 Maximise sub-contract work, as appropriate, to Alaskan Registered small businesses.

3 Invest in Alaska based training programs.

4 Some help for Alaska Social Services and Health Services.

etc.

My belief is that once production for conventional and unconventional takes off, many thousands of employees will be required.

So, at one end of the scale, we are looking at one investigation well in early 2020. Oh dear.

At other end of the scale, we are looking at significant benefit to the workers and families of Alaska over decades.

All indirectly leading to delays in our little 'ol contract being signed off.

Phrontist