Member Info for Phoebus

'We're going to announce in the next few days the second target. ... The second target will probably be tertiary as well.'

https://oilnow.gy/news/breaking-epa-grants-exxonmobil-permit-for-yellowtail-exploration-liza-phase-2-to-follow/

Bear in mind rig mobilisation is only around 8 weeks away now. Not long to go at all now.

Perhaps confirmation of second well details.

You are quite right Gatto, although the trades suggest an amount exactly matching Capital Groups entire holding was liquidated the other day.

PVR just issued two RNS. CG below notifiable and Pageant increased to 14.9%. There's confidence.

Capital Group overhang gone:

https://investegate.co.uk/providence-res---pvr-/gnw/notification-of-interest-in-share-capital/20190322102139H3861/

Pageant Capital increased from 71.9M to 83.1M. Now holding 13.9%. Clearly very confident.

https://investegate.co.uk/providence-res---pvr-/gnw/notification-of-interest-in-share-capital/20190322103013H3864/

Previous holding here:

https://www.investegate.co.uk/providence-res---pvr-/gnw/providence-resources-p-l-c----notification-of-interest-in-share-capital/20180924095115H7374/

Surely you have both confirmed my point? Exxon were willing to share because they got something in return and both sides have benefitted.

If Exxon drills the upcoming appraisal of Hammerhead right on our boundary as I suspect they will, they can also intersect the flank of Iatuk-D, which is one of ECO's three largest prospects estimated at 627.2 MMBOE P50 and 22.4% COS. If that is also successful it will derisk the other Cretaceous prospects on block and ECO's SP will rocket. Exxon's move to survey the Hamerhead area in preparation for a production faclity makes even more sense when you consider it might be part of a Hammerhead/Iatuk hub.

A strike at Iatuk-D would also give Exxon and partners a detailed heads up on how much oil ECO may already have under its belt. Combined with data from their own Cretaceous and Tertiary discoveries and the ECO CPR, they would then have a very good idea about the rest of Orinduik's potential. In this scenario I would not be surprised to see either Exxon or Hess table an early bid for ECO. Might draw in some rapid counter offers. The next few months could become very interesting indeed.

(Trigger happy return key)

If they drill the upcoming appraisal of Hammerhead right on our boundary as I suspect they will, they can also intersect the flank of Iatuk-D, which is one of ECO's three largest prospects estimated at 627.2 MMBOE P50 and 22.4% COS. If that is also successful it will derisk the other Cretaceous prospects on block and ECO's SP will rocket. Exxon move to survey the Hamerhead area in preparation for a production faclity start to make even more sense when you consider it might be part of a Hamemrhead/Iatuk hub.

A strike at Iatuk-D would also give Exxon and partners a detailed heads up on how much oil ECO may already have under its belt. Combined with data from their own Cretaceous and Tertiary discoveries and the ECO CPR, they would then have a very good idea about the rest of Orinduik's potential. In this scenario I would not be surprised to see either Exxon or Hess table and early bid for ECO. Might draw in some rapid counter offers. The next few months could become very interesting indeed.

If they drill the upcoming appraisal of Hammerhead right on our boundary as I suspect they will, they can also intersect the flank of Iatuk-D, which is one of ECO's three largest prospects estimated at 627.2 MMBOE P50 and 22.4% COS. If that is also successful it will derisk the other Cretaceous prospects on block and ECO's SP will rocket. Exxon move to survey the Hamerhead area in preparation for a production faclity start to make even more sense when you consider it might be part of a Hamemrhead/Iatuk hub.

A strike at Iatuk-D would also give Exxon and partners a detailed heads up on how much oil ECO may already have under its belt. Combined with data from their own Cretaceous and Tertiary discoveries and the ECO CPR, they would then have a very good idea about the rest of Orinduik's potential. In this scenario I would not be surprised to see either Exxon or Hess table and early bid for ECO. Might draw in some rapid counter offers. The next few months could become very interesting indeed.

I should imagine Exxon and its partners are under no obligation to share any Stabroek data unless they wants to. If a counterparty has something to offer in return then maybe, but Exxon and partners already have such an advantage data wise I'm not sure what's in it for them.

Looks like the rerate is starting.

It it were a problem I'm think PVR would simply delist from the Irish market. There is no contest between the two exchanges in terms of liquidity, depth, capital raising potential and visibility.

3 late reported 10K buys popped up from the last hour. Buying at that size nobody knows you're buying until an hour later. Very sneaky.

Should read:

'In reality, I think the COS for the Cretaceous TARGETS is as good as it is for the Tertiary and drilling will prove it.'

Note also that the 2018 CPR did not take into account any of the sucess that Exxon had on the Stabroek block as the data was not available to the competent person. This is why the highest COS for the Cretaceous targets was only 22.4%.

(2018 CPR p17) 'Although recent drilling activity has confirmed the presence of commercial accumulations of hydrocarbons, the data from these discoveries is not yet available. Therefore, due to the paucity of available data, the subject leads have a high level of risk. The database is limited to 3D seismic data and the information from the few ‘legacy’ wells drilled in the area and public information.'

Looking at the 2019 CPR we can see that the COS and MMBOE figures for the Cretaceous targets remains the same apart from the KB prospect, which has increased from 243.3 MMBOE at 21% COS to 349.5 MMBOE at 28% COS. The lack of upgrade is because the Stabroek Cretaceous data is still not available to the competent person.

(2019 CPR p20-21) 'Although recent drilling activity has confirmed the presence of commercial accumulations of hydrocarbons, the data from these discoveries is not yet available to the Orinduik partners. Therefore, due to the paucity of available data, the subject leads have a relatively high level of risk...'

The CPR then indicates that more information was available for the Tertiary, which was the subject of this new CPR.

'...although the modeling work done by the partners from the Hammerhead results has mitigated some of the risk in the Tertiary.'

The map on p83 of the 2019 CPR shows that ECO's partners had access to 3D covering the the Tertiary Hammerhead discovery, which I have labelled. I infer that this information combined with the Hammerhead drill result allowed the competent person to sign off on a higher COS for the tertiary targets on Orinduik.

https://i.postimg.cc/x17qwPy6/3D-Map.jpg

Given the immensely high strike rate in the Cretaceous directly downdip of Orinduik, I think it highly likely they would have also assigned an equally high COS to ECO's Cretacous targets if they'd had access to 3D covering Exxon's Cretaceous discoveries.

In reality, I think the COS for the Cretaceous discoveries is as good as it is for the Tertiary and drilling will prove it.

Getting close again.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201903210944095744T&tab=article

Odier increases from 6.77% to 20.78%. They must like the maths. Excellent confirmation of opportunity at these levels. GLA

with 4 v 1. Nothing but buys on PVR so far. Just waiting for holdings RNS to confirm overhang there is cleared and off we go.

You're confusing the two sellers. City & Financial had 9.25M and Capital group had 23.735M. It looks like both are now out.