Member Info for Phoebus

Planning in place for next two wells so plenty of action here very soon.

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The problem with the two sides to every trade argument is it implies there is never any net buying or net selling as every buy is a sell and vice vera, ergo so the SP should remain permanently motionless. It doesn't work like that particulary in this part of the market. Apart from the occasional large trade done directly between counterparties, one side of the transaction is likely always a market maker. They run up long and short positions in the stock at various times and are happy to see the SP swing back the other way to rebalance their positions. The spikes up to 3p no doubt saw some of the MMs selling stock they didin't have as evidenced by the horrendous buy liquidity and their reluctance to sell all but a tiny number of shares. They are now buying back at a lower price enouraging weak holders to sell, quick to drop the SP and slow to raise it. The wiser investors are aware of this and are using it as a chance to add to their long positions. When they've had their fill or a bullish RNS causes a surge in buying, their behviour will flip and it will be very hard to buy once more.

If you'd tried to accumulate that many shares after the Brandon Hill buy RNS issued at around 2p last month, you'd have sent the SP well north of 3p by the time you'd succeeded in picking up that many shares. Whoever is buying is very wise to hoover them up while liquidity is available.

Correct Yare according to UKOG presentation, so nothing to stop drilling going ahead. Just waiting for ball to start rolling and SP climb to begin. GLA

Two large buys in the last few days totalling 3.1M shares or about £60K. The sells are chicken feed by comparison. Sensible folks are loading up.

Agreed. Hammerhead results, two of them, will provide a nice kick to the SP here. Won't be long now.

Note how the MMs are quick to mark the SP down on a tiny amount of selling but slow to mark it up when there is a similar or greater amount of buying. The £30K buy the other day hardly moved the SP at all. It's all just a pantomime ahead of the rerate.

I totally agree. Two institutions with around 50% of the company, former drill boss from previous Barryroe campaigns with over 3%, stacks of well researched PIs holding of 1% and 2% and Goldman Sachs with around 10% of our drill partner PVR plus others. The free float here is miniscule and MMs have repeatedly had massive trouble satisfying demand when the price starts to increase. My honest guess is they're happy to walk this down on permit delays to help replenish their larder. Despite the huge drop in price, the sell volumes have been miniscule. I'm sure plenty of holders are seeing their positions drop far move in value than the actual total value of net sells. It's completely fake. At the first sign of operational progress I expect the rally to be truly ferocious. Might even kick off with a 50% markup on open. Given the tiny selling volume the big holders are clearly staying right where they are ready for the huge uplift that lies beyond. Don't thow away your shares or you'll regret it when the squeeze begins. GLA. The drill campaign will be a monster.

you numpty. If you think it should be £3M market cap then the SP should drop 45% to 0.07p.

Market cap is already over £5M.

Fears over the EU drilling regulatory framework seem without merit. Surely all drilling offshore Ireland including the the Barryroe and Iolar drilling campaigns is subject to exactly the same EU regulatory framework as drilling in other EU waters including the UK, Danish and German sectors of the North Sea, the Baltic and the Adriatic. Countless wells have been drilled in these areas since the introduction of these new EU regulations. If these rules have not been sufficient to prevent drilling elsewhere in the EU it seems inconcieveable that they could prevent drilling offshore Ireland. If the companies involved are having trouble negotiating the process they can always draw on the experience of operators in the North Sea for guidance on how to comply with these regulations in a timely manner. If these regulations prevent the drilling of Barryroe and Iolar then they surely all further drilling in the UK, Danish and German North Sea, the Baltic, the Adriatic and all other waters within the EU's area of jurisdiction will have to be terminated immediately. Not going to happen.

Fairview, I couldn't agree more. UJO's current West Newton drill is onshore UK, fully funded, with production pipeline running over the field, exceptional COS and massive upside to $5/BOE risked never mind unrisked. The NPV 10 net to UJO is immense. What on earth the market is thinking in ignoring this is utterly perplexing. Only explanation I have is that most of the hot money is off chasing BLOE, MXO and one or two others. This really should be at least 0.20-0.30p by now if the market was being rational. My post from before the last placing highlights the value gap:

https://i.postimg.cc/rsXxmZSn/UJO-West-Newton-Valuations-Price-Targets-1.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/t4S6P43V/UJO-West-Newton-Valuations-Price-Targets-2.jpg

N.B. The target prices need to be adjusted to take into account the last placing.

Anyone else having issues with their website today?

Profit will be only a small fraction of that Mitch. The field produced 1.07MMB over the last year and what was MXO's actual profit was over the same period? Moreover, unless it's produced instantly you will need to discount it using a DCF model.

Degsy is talking sense. Market cap has increased around £20M on the back of a £680K cash injection and a 142,000 barrel increase in 2P. That's a tiny increase in actual real value. While MXO is definitely popular at the moment, it's certainly not a bargain any more.

PPC up by more than the entire market cap of LOGP in under an hour this morning after a Midas share tip in the Daily Mail yesterday. LOL. I hope we get one when drilling gets the final green light.

The target for TLP-101 and 102 after the inital work was 250 BOP/D. The results were awful. The fact that the Djeno has flowed to surface in 103 is meaningless without actual flow rates. We have no idea if its just a tiny trickle or something decent. Until we get rates its just spin and given the track record here over the last two years cold hard number are crucially important. Why do the CPR before the flow test? The figures would have been invaluable for producing reliable CPR estimates of recoveable volumetrics and NPV. Something doesn't add up. I won't be surprised if results fall far short of expectation once again.

Still looks like almost all the selling is down to one individual with the heebie jeebies. Thanks for the shares. MMs replenishing nicely.

TLP-103 hasn't even been flow tested yet. TLP-102 is lined up for water injection despite being intended for production. TLP-101 has failed miserably to reach production targets. It's all hot air until we hear otherwise.