Member Info for Phoebus

With less than two weeks until deadline for submissions related to site survey for Barryroe it shouldn't be long until consent is granted and site surveys can begin for the 5-7 well program.

https://www.dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/natural-resources/consultations/Pages/Application-for-consent-for-a-site-survey-at-Barryroe,-North-Celtic-Sea,-South-West-Coast,-Ireland-proposed-by-Exola-DAC-wh.aspx

Strong finish on TSX closing at C$1.70 just 1 tick below day high.

Perhaps we're about to get some movement on Brockham.

Good post Gatto. Is seems to confirm that the MMs lack shares. As soon as the price turns up they appear to struggle to meet any demand, hence the difficulty buying and the swift price rise. It's not surprising given the high percentage of shares that are tightly held. I can't see holders selling anywhere near this level as they seem particularly tuned in and know it's worth far more. As the buys pick off the few remaining shares the situation should get more extreme leading to a dramatic rerate. Perhaps a breach of 3p might trigger it.

Drilling of two horizontal wells at Horse Hill is due to start next month but where is everyone? This and UKOG are the only real HH plays left with RGM, DOR and PRIM now gone, SOLO only holding indirectly via UKOG and GUN with microscopic exposure. This has traditionally done well during HH operation and with all firepower now focussed on this and UKOG we should see a strong move. Any sign of an upturn and this will gap up 20-30% in a flash with 0.6p easily achieveable IMO. GLA

Drill must be a tight hole. ;)

Woops. Typo. Angus Energy. ;)

Good point Mick. Anus Energy up 14% today.

Two institutions, Brandon Hill and LC Capital own more than 50% between them including holdings by their directors. 30% of shares are not in public hands, LOGP directors have 2.6%, owner of NRG who did well management on Barryroe previously has 3.1%, lots of PIs have 1-2%+ shareholdings. Basically there is nothing but fumes left for everyone else. When this kicks off its going supernova. GLA

because it sure would explain the SP movement? We're not far off previous placing levels. Drilling is scheduled for next month so it would fit previous MO. If they are going to do one, I just wish they'd get on with it, then the SP can start to rise into HH drilling. GLA

Well spotted Itsyou. (CPR p39) 'The Joe Prospect is a stratigraphic channel fill and overbank sand body that trend to the northwest on the northern part of the Orinduik Block (Figure 3-20). This Tertiary feature has positive responses on AVO products and is analogous to the Hammerhead discovery. Inline 2141 (Figure 3-21) shows the feature which will be the target of the second well to be drilled on the Orinduik Block.' Joe is 148.3 MMBOE P50 gross with 43.2% COS.

(CPR p35) https://i.postimg.cc/5tDHkN4C/ECO-Targets.jpg

From this image we can see that Joe overlies the deeper Rappu prospect, which is 535.6 MMBOE with a 25.2% COS. So it looks certain they will drill both Joe and Rappu with the second well, a total of 683.9 MMBOE gross unrisked, 199.0 MMBOE gross risked.

Total gross P50 in the first two wells (Jethro, Joe, Rappu) is 898.4 MMBOE P50 unrisked, 291.7 MMBOE risked with a value net to ECO based on $8/BOE in the success case of £809M unrisked, £263M risked. Using your fully diluted figure of 175M shares that equates to 150p risked, 462p unrisked for the first two drills excluding all other prospectivity on the licence, cash or Namibia.

Note that the first drill was billed as Jethro-Lobe, but I can't see figures for Lobe. The map clearly show Jethro is above another prospect, which take to be Lobe.

Comparing the propect inventories from the two ECO Orinduik CPR, whereas the gross unrisked P50 has increased 36.7% from 2913 MMBOE to 3982 MMBOE, the gross risked P50 has increased 60.2% from 626.7 MMBOE to 1003.7 MMBOE as the overall COS has increased from 21.5% to 25.2%.

6 new prospects have been added, Jethro, Hammerhead, Joe, Rappu, Jethro Ext and Jimmy whilst MJ-4 with only 27.4 MMBOE gross has been dropped from the list. Apart from the KB prospect, which has increased from 243.3 MMBOE at 21% COS to 349.5 MMBOE at 28% COS, all other existing prospects' figures remain the same. This suggests that the CPR has still not factored in the results of the huge number of Cretaceous discoveries on the Stabroek block into either the MMBOE or COS figures for these prospects. This also suggest that the uplift in KD may be due to a Triassic component.

With Exxon and Hess valuing Stabroek discoveries at $8/BOE this means that the risked P50 recoverable net to ECO has increased from £564M to £903.3M, or 350p/share to 560p/share. Even if we only include the 5 prospects with a COS of 43.2% or higher the risked value net to ECO is 181p/share.

The lack of shares to buy here is astonishing. Try and get a quote. You won't be successful. With a 5-7 well appraisal and exploration drilling campaign only a few months away we could get an almighty squeeze here. GLA

Not my area of expertise unfortunately although I know there's a refinery in Pembrokeshire too. I guess you are referring to Whitegate, which certainly looks much closer.

If you check the Shares Magazine website you will see that the stockwatch and live trades pages are now up and running. The stockwatch tool is now limited to only 25 stocks per list with a maximum of ten lists, whilst there is also no trade data on the page. I think a lot of people will be disappointed with the totally unnecessary degredation of their excellent service.

Thanks Itsyou.

Should read 'Apart from that the price has stayed perfectly within that channel except for point D'.

Looking at the chart since farmout close in September it appears to me that the LOGP share price has been largely confined to a rising up channel touching it 5 times so far. The breach at point C was fundamental not technical, driven by the An Taische issue which turned out to be a laughable nothing burger. Apart from that the price has stayed perfectly within that channel except for point A where the lack of free float saw the price soar out of control for a bit. Note that Brandon Hill directors Neal Griffith and Oliver Stansfield chose points A and B to increase their holdings. It would appear that they too see the same upward channel. I expect the share price to continue in this channel until we get an upside breakout at 3p followed by an explosive move higher.

https://i.postimg.cc/7Y0p5G6H/LOGP-Chart.jpg

Rocket emoji not supported. :(

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