RE: Drop16 Mar 2022 17:43
Harel, GBP's net current asset position looks to be around £2M or more, so it is incorrect to say they have no cash. Enterprise value here is around £2M, which is basically options money and lower than some cash shells on the LSE, so Namibia is practically in for free.
We both like ECO and although it has four blocks in Namibia, as far as I can tell only the Cooper, Sharon and Tamar blocks have a CPR, whilst Tamar does not. Of the prospects identified on these three blocks only Osprey on the Cooper block has a half decent COS of 17.9% and 245.5 MMBOE 2U recoverable, whilst all the other targets are low COS leads until more work is done on them. This is neither here nor there for ECO shareholders because as we know, the lions share of ECO's much larger market cap is down to the huge upside of their Orange Basin and Guyana assets. Nonetheless, GBP's top drill target, the Marula prospect, compares very well with ECO's Osprey given it has a higher 22% COS and 210 MMBOE 2U recoverable.
We should also note that ECO's most advance Namibia licence, the Cooper licence is directly east of GBP's PEL 94 and we can see from the GBP prospectivity map that some of GBP's targets overlap into ECO's licence. PEL 94 is also down dip from ECO's Cooper licence and closer to the depths at which the Graff and Venus discoveries were made.
https://i.ibb.co/h71BnLB/PEL-94-Prospect-Map.jpg
Also, if we look at the following map we can see that one of the highest probability areas for Kudu Shale source rock in the Walvis basin is in the bottom right quadrant of GBP's PEL 94, with much better predicted coverage on GBP's block than ECO's Cooper block. It is this shale which is interpreted to be the source for the Venus and Graff discoveries to the south.
https://i.ibb.co/t3SNpdq/PEL-94.jpg
Perhaps if ECO are so confident with Cooper they should pick up PEL 94 for £2M net of cash. If neither they nor a major is interested, then given the Graff and Venus results and similar geology I won't be surprised if a smaller company takes a percentage in return for shooting 3D and increasing the COS ahead of a second farm down. All projects have their price, and for how they are positioned right now, GBP looks too cheap at the current enterprise valuation.