Member Info for philpot1001

Broker Peel reiterated a "buy" rating of GFRD on 21/06/2017 with target price of 1620p - a 40% increase from here!!!

looks like standard life have been shopping here today

Not sure what you mean 1 for 10, but the expected pay out is 0.17p per share... if they offer a scrip, it's normally calculated based on the above payout then rounded down to the nearest share.

one final point while im waffling, further down the line if the dividend increases and becomes significant, I would prefer to see quarterly or 6 monthly payments rather than a single annual payment - it gives more incentive to holders to hang on and stay rather than jumping in and out around 1 day a year............but like I say that's much further down the line

the potential here is genuinely exciting. Putting the take overs and crazy multiple time offers to one side, I believe in a few years time this share could easily become a 4-5% dividend yielder (especially for those of us in the 11p avg region), for an AIM share that's nuts! and along with it, we all believe the SP belongs > 20p NOW let alone in 3 years!

* sorry 8% not 8.5%

also regarding the dividend - there were articles declaring GFRD were going to pay 95p out. "IF" that happened at the current SP that's a ridiculous 8.5% dividend......a much more normal dividend yield would be circa 5% and even that's healthy, so "IF" the dividend is unaffected I would expect this to rerate to something nearer 1750p. obviously different kettle of fish if the dividend gets slashed. we will find out near the next ex divi date I guess. PS I topped up again.

ive been thinking about the charges - it seems o me from the headlines (on Queensferry at least) that the "total" charges are earmarked as likely being 100 million - however Galliford are minor partners, so the actual charges should be significantly lower for them. It seems to me that this 98 million Galliford have been quoting is probably over baking the actual costs.............that said, there is uncertainty on the actual over run, and at 1 million a day (for the whole group) costs can spiral quickly. If it turns out the 98 million is an over cooking of the figure, this would bounce like a rubber ball......I would personally argue this huge drop seen bakes in a worst case scenario potentially lots of baking going on!

Seems like Optiva have looked through the mirk of the poor harvest, but cantor have dwelled on it. You would have to argue Optiva is the clearer forecast as the poor harvest was due to El Nino .... unless were going to be seeing one annually now! .... totally unbiased opinion of course ;) Looks like the SP has pulled it's pants up and grown a spine for a bit

just had a look at the circular, seems like they round down, so in my theoretical case id lose 0.75 shares worth.

or c) give me 2 shares and charge me 0.25*share value...

theoretical question about SCRIP dividend and rounding - lets say im getting a cash dividend that's worth 1.75 shares at 666.1p, what happens if I declare I want the SCRIP, do I a) only get 1 share and lose the 0.75 shares worth b) get 1 share and cash equivalent to 0.75 shares worth?

its interesting to note that over the past week or two the short positions here have increased from 0% to circa 0.7%, which may very well be driving the SP down...(those numbers are from shorttracker.co.uk which only registers positions over 0.5%, the actual short position is almost certainly higher, probably over 1% now). As ever the leeches are latching onto weak prey. Lets hope for a decent update in July that deters them.

I wouldn't get too excited yet, but it is a risk that the charges mount and that impacts the dividend. However, currently we don't have any concrete evidence the dividend will be negatively impacted, indeed at present all the rhetoric is positive regarding that front. I think the brokers have it right for once - HOLD and let it play out.

although looking at it, its trade time was after the other minor trades so maybe not

circa 10 grand dump has just shown up so im guessing its that which may have caused the fall?

https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/bridge-builders-set-to-lose-100-million/ my guess is the SP is reflecting the hit from the Queensferry crossing "may" potentially go over the £90 million estimated by GFRD, if there are further delays to its completion - at least that my take on the above article.....obviously if it doesn't then the SP drop has been over baked. But as ever uncertainty governs SP's.

Balls I need to be careful about what i ask for in the future! I'm still holding off topping up in case it goes lower

its only small volume trades - I really doubt people with £1000 holdings are privy to pre release news about the results. Its probably PI's with nervous trigger fingers who spot a bit of negative trend then amplify it by pulling the trigger..............for me, im holding until the results RNS.

up to 56, 18 month high for construction ..........and GFRD is down lol. I need 1200p for another top up position, either that or a strong bounce --- do one thing or the other GFRD (preferably a bounce ;o)