Member Info for PhilGekko

Xenor - even if you did sell you wouldn't have been "stupid", as you said. People sell under pressure sometimes and at loss - it's not stupid it's part of a learning process.

Happened to me at the beginning and probably everyone i know who is investing. Glad to hear you're not stupid though!

Xenor - if this is true and you are not simply joking (April Fool's) I am sorry to hear. We've all sold under market pressure, part of the learning process, so hopefully this help you investing moving forward

Everyone invested here knows company is burning a lot of cash on R&D/trials. That's not news, and i am glad they are as we appear to be advancing on several fronts.

If you don't know this you either have done no DD whatsoever or you are not a holder. This company has a lot of potential, I am holding because i think catalysts will soon move this up.

Please do your own research and don't fall for any nonsense on this board. If you think the company has potential hold/buy on the dip - if you think the fundamentals have changed and it is now too risky then sell (imho chances are some IIs will soon hoover up your shares).

Sangijuelas... fair play to you. Great call

Sangijueas - I think the sell-off is happening across the board, i.e. for the reasons that are not 4D- specific. virtually all biotechs on my watchlist are in deep red. Everyone here is hurting (well, those who haven't sold at 150 are, I am one of them) .
If you had the foresight to sell @ 150 - well done.
I had a strange feeling when we hit 150 that there would be a bit of a sell-off but never sold as I genuinely could not predict what Nasdaq hype would do (and whether 4D would be following up with any news) so didnt want to miss out. I never saw us going down to 111 though - I thought that the worst case scenario was 125-130.

Sangijuelas - I don't feel like i am degrading myself at all. Actually trying to turn the conversation back to 4D and stick to facts. Fact is you have been comparing 4D with Synlogic (in terms of mcap, look at your previosu comments) and also you haven't corrected yourself yet about your statement that Oliveira is the main reason 4D are on Nasdaq. That statement is quite funny imho.

Clearly you are passionate about this stock which i respect, but it's important that even in times of frustration we stick to facts.

So - to summarise your chat - there are better companies out there with lower mcaps (i.e. Synlogic) and also Oliverira is the main reason 4D have listed on NAsdaq. It's not really about opening the company up to US capital and larger investors?
You can understand why some people may consider this talk "deramping" ?

Sangijuelas - that is not really true. Many investors build early positions if fundamentals are strong -and company's outlook looks promising/lucrative and so do big pharma (I.e. Merck... sound familiar?)

Clearly you've been investing in pharma/biotech so you know that a successful Phase 2b puts a compound (and I biktech) firmly on the radars of big pharma in-licensing directors.

Many biotechs on Nasdaq are multiples of 4D's mcap while having comparable (if not inferior) pipelines in my opinion.

If your theory was true early-stage biotechs would all have an mcap of 20mn.

Xenor- you should only believe your own research and your own investment strategy. There's nobody here qualified to provide financial advice and we are all sharing opinions.

If you have faith in the fundamentals of the stock you are investing in then it is much easier to digest days like this and focus on the bigger picture.

Do your own research and good luck

Michael - absolutely, as i posted I remember that directors have gone in with their own cash (if i am not mistaken - did i read that right in the placing RNS?).

Today has been a bad day - time to lick wounds and remember why we've invested. Fundamentals of this company are strong.

Why did 4D decide to raise cash before Nasdaq listing?
Why has Merck invested in 4D?
Why have there been 3 senior level appointments recently (starting with Dr. Rupalla)?

What plausible explanation could there be?

Sangijuelas - at this point in time 4D is standing out from the other 700 or so Biotechs by having in my opinion a ridiculously low mcap of only £160mn (considering the pipeline and the overall value proposition). Do you think that's wrong?

Thank you Kuurj - don't take me wrong, I don't like seeing my portfolio shrink and it is not pleasant but I am intermediate/long-term investor so somewhat used to market acting strange occasionally (and often responding to herd mentality of nervous PIs).

Do your own research and if you believe in it - stick to your investment decisions and your strategy. Easier said than done though - I often go against my own rules :)) It's all a learning process - GL and DYOR

Sangi -No it is not broken. Those not believing their own DD research are now selling because of a downward trends kicked off yesterday by the "furlough 10% brigade". Those who do are now topping up.

Very annoying we are seeing these panic selling moments - but probably not to you, trust you must have foreseen all this.

ladders4up - I am invested in SNG as well (among others). I think SNG and 4D are two very different value propositions - SNG more binary outcome than 4D but I am a big believer, based on my DD. Hope results are good and we are all rewarded for our patience.

4D is more diverse and I can see it being appealing to a number of pharma companies down the line and not just Merck (if trials are progressing well).

DYOT, GLA

Hi CRK22 - appreciate your kind words.

I am one of those that believed we would jump to 150 yesterday- and stay there. Perhaps i was naive, but I do see Nasdaq listing as a huge milestone and clearly don't have the day trader mentality (and haven't taken them into account).

Intrinsic value of this stock has changed yesterday - it now has better access to a more free-flowing cash. And that, coupled with good trial results, tends to have a much better impact on the SP and future prospects than if it was stuck on AIM. Clearly i was wrong. But i don't care at this point as i am investing in 4D long-term. We just need good news from the company, I believe now we have a much better platform to grow on.

Sangi - thanks for your breakdown. I am considered by everyone I know very sceptical but I think your valuation is extremely conservative.

Apparently Keytruda is expected/estimated to be worth in the region of $22.5bn to Merck until $2025 . Assuming that Merck does decide to buy 4D I believe MRx0518 alone would be worth more than 2.5bn. On top of this we don't know how successful it would be as a monotherapy (if yes... valuation goes up considerably). Take into account all the other IP that 4D has under patent also.

Obviously we need for gut microbiome drugs to really hit the market and show they are credible alternative/addition to the available treatments but if they do then 4D is one of the market leaders.

I invested in DDDD because if is firing on so many fronts and has an mcap that, on Nasdaq, looks like a joke. We just need one good spotlight on Nasdaq for investors so get excited. And yes, that may not happen today :)

IMHO, DYOR

I get your frustration. Don't agree with the way you are channeling it but none of my business. Not here to judge.

I was surprised with a p&d yesterday, I admit it, as company's intrinsic value is now higher than it was a few months ago (now that we are listed and more accessible to a bigger pool of cash and less risk-averse investors).

It is very plausible that on the very first positive data readout/ trials update (on whichever TA front) we rocket as company is put on the spotlight and Nasdaq investors do realise we are truly massively undervalued (and now financed for a considerable period).
And that could happen any day - what do we know about any potential Blautix talks for instance? (unlikely, but just using as an example).

What do you think is a realistic SP target this year? What do you think this company will be worth on TO (in my opinion most likely outcome)

Well done all diamond hands holders here. There have been some tough moments after Blautix RNS but we're back in in the saddle now i think.

Was doing some research last night into most promising NASDAQ biotechs. We'll be in great company and couldn't help notice that mcaps were several times that of 4D (or should I say LBPS) - with comparable pipelines.

Exciting times - and congratulations to Duncan and the team for getting us this far!

Thanks RPStock.