Member Info for PhilGekko

Sang... yesterday you shared info here about a biotech that went bankrupt. Which is pretty much a definition of spreading FUD. I understand it upsets you when I remind people of what you were posting only 5 days ago as it perhaps.makes you look either disingenuous or silly- and no-one likes that.

You then also suddenly decided you no longer thought 0518 RCC trial update was good enough, despite your earlier posts here and on Stocktwits.

That's a fairly sharp U-turn in only 4-5 days. That I don't understand, unless you were trying to spread FUD - in which case your actions make perfect sense.

And I have zero tolerance for people spreading doom and gloom here just for the sake of it, or for their ulterior motives - especially after everything we (genuine investors) have been though since the summer.

The real question here is: you really think this company is at risk of going broke?

At this mcap, and considering the pipeline and the recent trials update, you really think the company will struggle.to keep the lights on (while having big pharma backing)?

Everyone investing in biotech market should know this is one of the riskiest industries to invest in. If it wasn't we would stand to multibag so easily.

But you know too much about this industry to seriously worry that a company running 2 trials with big pharma (and in my opinion the one with Merck successfully) will suddenly have to shut up shop. You really think so? :)

Let's stay civil here - but you have to admit your u-turn is for the books (and not just re 4D's finances but also the 0518 data update !).

The above is just my opinion.

Sangijuelas1

Posted in: DDDD

Posts: 3,592

Price: 37.55

No Opinion

Reasons to be cheerful07 Apr 2022 08:34

Micro RX platform with 9 drug candidates in pipeline discovered in 7 years

Extremely strong safety profile of the live biotherapeutics as they are derived from naturally occurring gut bacteria.

Looking more and more likely that 4Ds single strain approach is working on diseases beyond the gut typically targeted by approaches that use multiple strains.

Part B (Phase 2) results from 0518 with Keytruda in kidney cancer patients with no treatment options repeat the success of Part A and offer a strong base to take 0518 into an approval trial.

Blautix ready for P3 and talk of commercial manufacture in a US market conservatively estimated to be worth $2.4bn. Waiting on FDA guidance and strategy update, which could include outlicensing for upfront cash.

Partnerships in place with 2 mega pharmas in MSD and Pfizer and a mid market one Merck Kgaa

Collaborations with top cancer research settings like MD Anderson and Imperial college.

Asthma drug due to be taken into P2 following recent positive results.

Forthcoming trial for Parkinsons with a seat on the science advisory board of Michael J Fox Foundation and partnership with Parkinsons UK. Both collaborations will make patient recruitment a lot easier.

Funding in place until the end of 2022

Incredibly experienced board with heavyweights like Axel Glasmacher and Katrin Rupalla (check out their CVs)

Directors DP and AS own 10% of the company including further investments in the last placing at 110p and Merck own nearly 5%.

Vaccines collaboration with MSD with milestone payments potentially available of up to $1bn

A second generation oncology drug in pre clinical development already recognised for potential to make CAR-T therapies work in solid tumours (holy grail)

Manufacturing capacity in place for commercial production with 7 years worth of accumulated experience and expertise

With 2 partnerships in place with MSD and them owning nearly 5% surely the inevitable will be only a matter of time

Muck 165... I invest in several Nasdaq biotechs and FDA seem to be slow in getting back, presumably Covid chaos backlog (obviosuly we can only speculate but doesn't seem to me at all like it's only happening to 4D)

Come on people, just because he chose to call himself 'LEECH' in Spanish doesn't mean he is here to suck on retail investors' blood. Let's not be jumping into conclusions.

Sang... this is becoming quite childish.... you've been made, surley you can see that? When you bailed LSE I thought someone maybe offended you and thought it would be silly not to have you around here - and I asked you on Stocktwits to return here. Yes that's right, so what? I have publicly stated on several occasions I valued your research.

But now I know better and won't be making that mistake again. Yes, you can post wherever you like, and whenever you like... knock yourself out. But you've been made.

'You lot'... ?? Sang, are you OK ?

Perhaps it's a good timemfor you to take another LSE sabbatical, people seem to be annoying you here.

Sorry you are no longer a 4D investor but appreciate it was a difficult decision. That said, also no need for you to be dramping here moving forward, hope you will respect that.

Sang.... since we are sharing wisdom here now...

“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently.”

Warren Buffet.

For those worried about financing - please see Sang's post below from a few days ago (7th April) that will provide you with some comfort and confidence!
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Sangijuelas1

Posted in: DDDD

Posts: 3,540

Price: 37.60

No Opinion

RE: Reasons to be cheerful 07 Apr 2022 08:44
Lot of talk of placing.

4D has 3 potential alternatives to placing before the end of the year.

Confirmed receipt of more Oxford cash. Up to $17.5m

Upfront payment from Blautix outlicensing

Milestone payment from the vaccine collaboration. This is due to expire in October and if Merck want to continue they would likely have to pay to play.

4D could also attract another Big Pharma with an immunotherapy drug. I think Opdivo is the most likely here. But also Imfinzi or Tecentriq.

They could also get bought out

As I am reading this blatant deramping and fearmongering a quote from Godfather II springs to mind...

Michael Corleone: "Fredo, you're nothing to me now. You're not a brother, you're not a friend. I don't want to know you or what you do."

Would this appease our worried derampers here? Yes, I didn't like options being awarded but DP and AS have invested $2m between them at £1.10 and, unlike most of us, don't really have an option of selling/trading without tanking the SP. So there you go.

Just my opinion.

Sangi, everyone respects you for the research you bring to this board. I have not done full DD analysis on every biotech on Nasdaq, I admit that, but out of all I have come across on a few platforms I use for DD I have found only a few biotechs with a comparable value prop to 4D.

Vast majority of Nasdaq biotechs with a few compounds in Phase 2 would have a value prop of approx. $300-$500m.

Very few of them would have a big pharma stake and active partnerships.

And all these shorting games and other BS - will last for a while until IIs move in or BP make a move. I had shares in Kadmon - was shorted, holders frustrated... and then Sanofi walked in and the rest is history. I feel similar could be in store for 4D.

Just my opinion, not an investment advice.

Sangi.... I invest on Nasdaq and LSE and I do believe 4D is in the top 5% in terms of risk vs. reward at this point in time considering ...
***recent trial updates (particularly Phase IIb in RCC), PD, Bavencio/Pfizer partnership
***Oxford Finance cushion and what's looking like a runway till 2023 (with possibly Merck' vaccine deal extension in Oct?)
***potentail big pharma backing for an accelerated approval for 0518
Merck stake, Pfizer partnership and also potential for collaboration with other pharmas
***Blautix potential for licensing cash as it looks like it has real world commercial potential
*** Microbiome now looking like a new drug class in the making and 4D has massive IP/patent value

Very few biotech on Nasdaq have all.of the above - AT SUB-$100m :) That is insane. And yes, microbiome has not been proven YET, but imo big pharma clearly think it's justa matter of time - why else would they be investing?

So yes, I believe 4D is easily in that group.

Just my opinion, not an investment advice.

Remember, whether bear or bull market: IIs, investors as well Finance companies are not allergic to making money and need to find growth.

What that means in the bear market is simply that investors will be more selective and les speculative: investing less in binary plays and doing a more thorough DD analysis before buying into biotechs.

When a company has trials in 4 different therapy areas, meeting primary endpoint in Phase IIb of RCC (with potentially being en route to Project FrontRunner) , has a big pharma stake and partnerships- it is then bound to be seen as a prime investment target (as a derisked value prop.)

So yes, funds will be doing fewer 'mud sticks' speculative investments... but will be even more desperate to select high growth biotechs with trials data that is delivering. At these SP levels 4D has to be seen as such I believe.

Just my opinion, not an expert - my posts are not in any way an investment advice.

BuyHighSellLow.... hindsight iis a beautiful thing. If we all had a crystal ball we would all always enter at the bottom, I initially entered at 90p then 110p then averaged all the way down as SO continued selling on and on. But I though at 1.10 it was a steal considering the multi-bagging potential IMO.

Yes I am also very frustrated with the SP action over the last 9 months but fundamentals have gone titanium solid and I believe it's all just a waiting game now, don't hate the stock just the unique circumstances that brought us here and no intention to therefore be spreading FUD here.

Just my opinion, not an expert so the none of what I post is in any way an investment advice.

It's not too late... maybe you should if your DD says it's a better investment, with more upside from here than DDDD.

You should also look into your DD process and your overall investment strategy. 4D has just been derisked considerably in my opinion by the Phase IIb RCC data and still beaten down by a distressed seller... so work out what riks/ reward is here vs. Avacta.

And please stop cross-ramping :)

Apologies, a typo... you declared to be HATING this stock.

BuyHighSellLow... time for you to move on perhaps? No need to just be spreading FUD here if you've already openly declared to be having DDDD. There's a good chap.

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BuyHighSellLow1

Posted in: DDDD

Posts: 61

Price: 47.30

No Opinion

I hate this stock 01 Apr 2022 08:04
On good days we make big gains that are instantly lost

On bad days… this happens. It really is terrible

Haha... yes, not taking this personally as I actually like when people deal with facts and don't go too wild with conjecture and specualtion ;) But I think Project Frontrunner is genuinely important for biotechs like 4D with promising Phase II oncology trials. It's not conjecture and speculation, if Fierce Biotech is to be believed then this should be game changer in some ways for the approval process.

Just my opinion.

Focus is on Oncology pipeline possibly because of the potential to go down the Accelerated Approval... and news like this one are just corroborating that.

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/fda-oncology-chief-eyes-accelerated-approval-earlier-cancer-treatment-under-planned-project

I believe this company should have a mcap several times of the current one even WITHOUT the current Oncology pipeline.

Just my opinion, not an investment advice.

CeriEvans... welcome to the club. Exciting times ahead!!!