Member Info for PhilBanks

Further from my post earlier regarding the LUXTURNA product developed by Spark Therapeutics (which is currently subject to a $4.3b takeover bid), I have spent a few hours doing further reading, in summary:

From the LUXTURNA website: ‘RPE65 is 1 out of more than 260 genes that may be responsible for an inherited retinal disease. Confirming a gene mutation with a genetic test is the first step to learning if LUXTURNA may be right for you’.

Reneuron’s chief executive, Olav Hellebø: Spark's gene therapy Luxturna, which targets retinal diseases associated with RPE65 mutations, “treats a tiny sliver of the population”.

From an Edison Research article – ‘hRPCs can differentiate into any of the cellular components of the retina, all of which are required for full vision. This flexibility is important since RP is a heterogeneous disease with genetic, environmental or idiopathic effects that can result in vision loss. The use of a single small molecule drug directed against a single molecular target will only treat RP in a small subset of patients and could result in limited efficacy in patients whose disease has more than one aetiology. In addition, the majority of the clinical trials in RP are gene therapies, which seek to correct one of the 70 genes that have been associated with RP and therefore cannot have applicability across the various phenotypes of RP. Stem cell therapy, like ReNeuron’s hRPCs, could have broad therapeutic potential across RP.’

From an FDA Phase III trial paper for LUXTURNA: “Visual acuity is a traditional measure of central visual function, particularly the ability of the eye to perceive details and is primarily cone-mediated. VA is the most common measure of visual function both in clinical practice as well as in clinical trials.

Early Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) VA test chart, the most commonly used VA measurement in clinical studies, was used for most subjects in the Phase 3 study. VA results are presented in logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (LogMAR) units allowing for comparison analyses, where smaller values indicate better acuity (less visual acuity loss). For the VA analyses, a 0.1 improvement in LogMAR corresponds to a 5-letter improvement (or equivalent of one line) on a standard ETDRS eye chart. Change of VA of 0.3 LogMAR is considered clinically meaningful (per communication with CDER ophthalmology consultant).

The change in visual acuity from baseline to Year 1 was not statistically significant different between the treatment and the control groups when analyzed for VA averaged over both eyes (pre-specified in the protocol) or for the analyses of VA data using first- and second-treated eyes separately.

Over the five years, 46% of the treated eyes compared to 16% of the untreated eyes had a cumulative improvement of LogMAR 0.3. However, 16% of the treated eyes compared to none of the untreated eyes had a worsening of LogMAR 0.3."

Follow up article relating to subsequent $4b+ takeover of Sparks Therapeutics

https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/roche-must-ask-spark-shareholders-once-again-to-sell/551950/

Much appreciated

Egg - you fancy copying and pasting that article as it says registration for the free trial can take 24h to be approved. Cheers

Myo - where did you hear about the potential for a TV documentary? I would absolutely love to see one similar to the super sewer or crossrail documentaries there have been on BBC.

Maybe they could make a film as well - Woody Harrelson starring as Chris Fraser.

What's the highest the MCAP has been for rene over the years? Anyone remember?

I think from the director buys that we can infer that the news is not going to be bad.

Very reassuring to see

Link below showing a TBM breaking through as it bores a tunnel for the Sydney metro. The TBM achieved 3.1km in less than 6 months according the post.

Works out at about 17 metres per day I think?

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:ugcPost:6519740790997155840

Depends who's asking a whether you're willing to pay with a bit of the folding money, if you know what I mean.

It's just on hire from HSS plant hire. 50 quid a day, plus free delivery and collection.

Ignore that last post, I've worked it out: 1000 x 1.0204 ^ 252

Thanks

Andrew gives the correct answer. One question though Andrew, I did the calculation in excel as that was the only way I could think of doing it (dragging formulas down). How would you input that calc into a casio scientific calculator? Apologies to everyone else for the extremely dry subject matter here.

I've never heard of Kore Potash until your post. Don't imagine them being of any concern to us. They have a MCAP of £17m, and their share price has slid around 80% in the last year.

A quick look at the definitive feasibility study shows they have an estimated Capex of $2.1 billion, to achieve production of 2.2 Mtpa for around 33 years. Our Capex is around double that amount, but to achieve up to 20 Mtpa for over 100 years, for what will hopefully be a premium product with a premium price.

Also, not sure I would be keen on investing in project the Republic of Congo - much better off investing in a country with a 'strong and stable' government that's so clearly proactive and supportive for large infrastructure projects. . . . oh wait. . .

xxdodgerxx - you were in flybe and Debenhams, and you're also in sirius!? Christ, now I really am starting to get worried. Don't they say bad things come in 3s? That being said, law of averages suggests you'll pick a winner one day...

population expect - sorry to hear about your wife, my best wishes to you both.

Regarding Cam Capital, I have no idea unfortunately. My post yesterday was just a bit of research triggered by Cranleigh's postulations about why the fund might be selling.

People stating that CF might not have the PIs best interest at heart, or that stage 1 wasn't very favourable on shareholders etc etc are perhaps forgetting that he owns 123 million shares in this company. He stands to make ridiculous money from this if he gets it right, and excessive dilution clearly does him no favours either.

Populationexpect - according to their website, the fund managers are: Steven G. Backes, Wahid Butt, Mark E. Denning, Bradford F. Freer, Nicholas J. Grace, Carl M. Kawaja, Jonathan Knowles, Winnie Kwan, Robert W. Lovelace, Robert H. Neithart, and Christopher Thomsen

Cranleigh - I've just had a bit of a look as well. The December 2018 fund manager statement for American Funds New World Fund reads as follows:

'It's clearly been a tougher environment for emerging markets equities,
with China's economic slowdown, the strength of the dollar and
tightening U.S. monetary policy.
In this environment, I'm focusing on companies with stronger balance
sheets and cash generative businesses that still have decent growth
prospects and pricing power despite slowing global growth and trade
tensions. I've also shifted to companies undergoing fundamental
changes that can potentially drive future revenue and earnings growth
regardless of macro uncertainty. In some cases, profitable companies
with dominant market share positions have sold off and their valuations
have come down, creating compelling opportunities to invest with our
long-term view.
Despite some of the selloff in emerging markets, I believe longer term
trends in developing countries haven't changed and look sustainable.
These areas include the growth of mobile-based e-commerce and
services, the expansion of Asia's consumer class and soaring demand for
travel-related infrastructure and services within Asian countries.'

This is the fund that has sold off 64m SXX shares, which for context was 0.07% of their total fund asset value (i.e. a drop in the ocean for them). For further context, their main holdings are mainly the likes of Microsoft, Alphabet, AIA, banks, tech and financial companies. Of 589 holdings, SXX ranks approximately 480 in terms of the total fund %.

This fund is massive, and whilst a 64m share sale may seem huge to us, it's really rather insignificant to them. If you have a list of 589 holdings and you are looking to make a few changes, then the likes of SXX is probably going to be on your radar as it has dropped nearly 50% in the last 6 months.They have 11 fund managers, and SXX will have been one of their picks.

They will have come to a quarterly review, and the main fund manager will have said 'Steve; what the heck is Sirius Minerals and why is it 50% down?'. Steve would have then started eulogising about the benefits of POLY4, and then mid-sentence gets shut down by the main fund manager who says 'Steve; I don't care if it provides all the macronutirents under the sun, it's 50% down and I'm focusing on companies with stronger balance
sheets and cash generative businesses - we're selling.'

Lesson - listen to Steve, be patient and stay strong.

Hi John - it's the LTHs like you that deserve the most from this. I can only imagine how much your patience must have been tested since 2011, but hopefully you are about to reap some very rich and well deserved rewards.