Member Info for Pettycash

I agree, the outright win figure will probably be somewhere above 1 in 5 taking into account dropped cases and those not reported - although to be honest, we don't know if they've not been reported due to Respondent embarrassment of claimant win, or purely confidentiality agreements.

I know mate.. I will feel a tad responsible if they find Onion fully peeled off in his front room or drowned in the kitchen Coroner's Verdict: Death by OxTail Stewing

Ta, and good luck Castaway

Yes, fair point Jeremiah, and thanks for bringing that up... I agree that the unpublished awards would tend to favour the claimant - with award amount unknown - but also some may not have been disclosed because of pre-existing confidentiality agreements. This technical "Losing"...or less than 20% claim. For hat its worth, I'm quite happy with a "Loss", as long as it takes the share price higher than it is at the moment.

...and Onion...that should have read 0 to $240 million...not 0 to $240 ! Hope you realised that ! :o)

Onion - please don;t jump in or out on my say so...but you ought to read as much as you can and then make your own decision... There is still a chance this could be a big win. I'm just trying to gauge in reality, how big a chance that could be. The best way is to read the original arbitration document, look at the respective lawyers, read our old Annual reports, talk to people, look at past cases (particularly in Uzbekistan), look at payout averages, then play the game whichever way you feel fits your own mindset.

Yep, walked down due to Darwin, maybe RAB and lack of news.. people probably taking out small amounts and putting in elsewhere..Does not affect final outcome. I agree that Stats aren't the be all and end all - but they are really only one of the ways we have here of judging the overall picture. Since we do not know the Uzbek's case , we can only look at past cases, personnel involved, and Stats, and try to make an overarching choice that each one of us feels comfortable with.

...and the $185Mill Chinese CITIC potential investment that fell through.

So, TurkeyBurger - when you say "everything here points to a fair return"..What do you base that on? Please elaborate. When you look at what you expect here, and how you feel this is going, those who claim that Oxus will get massively rewarded are not using Statistics, past cases, or indicators to form a rounded judgment - they are using willpower and hope, that "justice will prevail".. People are saying statistics mean nothing - well, do they? Oxus will soon be part of those Historical statistics, in which we'll be one of the 1 out of 5 , or one of the 4 out of 5. As uncomfortable as it seems for some people to look at things objectively and easy to denounce facts or hypotheses they don't like, those statistics (when compiled) also showed that Tim Hart has a 100% record in getting his way on valuation. You may argue that at some point, White &Case, Brigitte Stern, Tim Hart, etc etc will get their comeuppance and lose a case big time, but you would be undoubtedly be playing the casino against the odds. If you are playing this as a pure gamble, looking at the odds, you might notice that I didn't even weigh yesterday's post with Tim Hart's negative connotations..I actually spun it to the positive! Being accurate you would see that if a case has a 4 in 5 chance of getting form Zero to 20% (and a 1 in 5 chance Oxus gets higher), You'd also have to face the uncomfortable truth that those Stats do NOT take into account that Tim Hart has won ALL his cases, among the general stats. The 4 out of 5 chance of losing outright or getting up to $240, includes other valuers. If you weighted this fairly with ONLY Tim Hart's input, you would see that this dramatically falls to the lower end of this valuation scale. Very low ball stuff - and he is the man on our case. Yesterday's lenghty post (which some see as negative)was actually a positive spin!! I am only talking statistically here, and sure, we may win big, but taking into account all those other factors, my bet is still on a small win with a small to fair chance of a loss. Like everyone on here, we all have to make our own decisions. Onion, if you feel over-exposed, get some out, Simple as. I've reduced my holding again recently. I was also over-exposed. I've got to admit I do not like this "Very Near Future" statement one little bit., and Mr Shead, if you're watching, and whatever reason you made that statement. IT WAS WRONG - and you know it. Again - We are not playing on a level field here. We are NOT all in this together. Calunius only need a very small win - a very small win - to get their investment back, and some on top. We need a much bigger win, with all the deductions even to get to 6p. All those leaving masses of cash i here, good luck and I'll certainly have the P*ss thrown at me at the winners party if Oxus grab a huge win. But that would go against not only the odds, but the $80 mill Newmont payout and the $18

Since I'm on a creepy roll here, phoning up random people to make new mates... Lawyers, Welsh people, Uzbekistan residents...could be anyone really..I'm even thinking of a night out with Onion I'm with a pal in Leeds on Sat'day night to watch a mate's band ...if you're out and wanna meet for a quick drink, we're heading for the Carp Diem music venue for about 8-9pm.. but wanna find a bar/pub from 6pm onwards before we go it.. Any suggestions? Somewhere decent around there that isn't a Townie pub (we're looking for somewhere away from the girls in tight pink Licra dresses with balloons and knuckleheads) More scruff 'n tat than Tatler though

Haha yes Nervous.. Although I'm not sure that Schofield's planning to drink the coke

Yeah, that's the state of our lawyers...even they've got old news on their site - they're as good with websites as they are with timescales ! The claim is for approx $500 - $1.2Billion...do to Hamid Gharavi, as he was initially involved and then another lawyer as involved.. You'll have to research yourself from here...Just read all the past case history/arbitration documents etc...we've all been here too long to go through all that again..

Schofield...you have to pay for it ..and I'm not paying for owt regarding you ! I'll stump up 70p for a pint but that's it. I think Private messaging on here is subscription only isnt it?

although if Glenfidich heard I'd actually talked to our lawyer by telephone, he'd obviously think I was a weird psychotic who should be jailed for being a creep with no mates.

Falstaff - I could tell you some credentials regarding Robert Amsterdam. I spoke to him once about this case - But it won't help you...I think you need to try harder. He was replaced by Derains and Gharavi 4 years ago!!

Schofield.. Hi mate...er is there a private message facility? I've never seen it /used it.. I PM's Nobull once on advfn..but no-one here..where's that then?

;o) The old Petty's alawys been here Swainer.. I've just been trying not to upset the locals

And before people start with this "But Calunius have 70% confidence" malarky, just remember , yes, and Calunius only need a win of circa $40Million to get all their money back, and some...and leave us with nowt. That seems a fair bet to them. The big guys usually win in the end.

Well, since I;m in the doghouse again and personal attacks have started again...why don't we get back to Oxus Gold. And since there's been a lot of talk of 30p "easy" on here, let's test that. FACTS: 1) From the link of past cases posted on here the other day, a factual account of Arbitration cases: 80% of Claimants lose or get less than 20% of their claimed amount. That means there's a 4 out of 5 chance using Historical statistics (case precedents) we'll get (even using the best Oxus claim of $1.2billion), somewhere between Zero and $240Million 2) Newmont Mining, a much larger firm, in a similar position to Oxus, who were also targeted by spurious and distressing tax claims, walked away with $80Million in their settlement (However for balance , It is fair to point out that this was below market value) 3) The Uzbek authorities, when investigating Metal Tech , also found "corruption in other Joint Venture companies". Does this include Oxus? We do not know. It might have noithing to do with Oxus. However it was the same law firm (White &Case, with the same lawyer (Greenwald), at the same time period in the same country. How may other joint venture companies were operating at that time? 4) So we win, (at a fairly good rate from past cases, $200Mill) What does $200Mill equate to? This is approx £130Mill, with Calunius taking maybe 30%, and company bonus and pay, discount to win.. Surely this would not take us beyond 9 to 12p max. Now, it's going to be easy for you to make personal attacks at me again - It's much easier than tackling the points. When people say DYOR, what does that mean? Many here don't seem to know the basics, that Oxus actually had a producing Goldfield! Is that DYOR..? Again, I'd ask you to play the ball and not the player. Don't attack me -attack the words above. I've always (from 2011/12 maintained this would be an 8p-10p ending...and still do. Good luck to those with open minds and hearts

Poetry Onion. Poetry. Beautiful beyond words.